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Changing EcosystemsRecent Accomplishments Archived News Postings (June 2000 - July 2005)
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The following are selected highlights of recent research supported by CCSP participating agencies (as reported in the fiscal year 2008 edition of the annual report, Our Changing Planet). Quantifying Potential Ecosystem Feedbacks to Climatic Change.1![]() Climate Impacts Fish Recruitment by Affecting Larval Transport.2Scientists have developed a tool to predict how climate and weather affect the transport of fish larvae to their nursery areas. Fisheries biologists and physical oceanographers constructed a numerical model to predict the larval transport of an economically important flatfish, northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra), in the southeastern Bering Sea based on their vertical position in the water column. Sustained shoreward transport during the 1980s led to a decade of above-average recruitment, and along-shelf or offshore transport in the 1990s resulted in a decade of below-average recruitment. This new model can now be used with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change climate projections to investigate the effects of changing climate on larval fish transport and recruitment due to changes in currents and regional wind patterns.Complex Responses of Subalpine Forests to Climatic Change.3![]()
Climatic Synchronization of Periods of Prehistoric Widespread Forest Wildfires.4The ability of climate variation to synchronize widespread forest fires across much of western North America was recently documented for a multi-century period. During the past 400 years, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) were the primary drivers of interannual to decadal variation in fire synchrony, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) affected the strength of ENSO and PDO effects on wildfire synchrony at multidecadal scales. During certain phases of ENSO and PDO, fire was synchronous within broad subregions and sometimes asynchronous among those regions. In contrast, fires were most commonly synchronous across the West during warm phases of the AMO. The research is the first to demonstrate that synchrony in forest wildfires across western North America is directly related to surface conditions of the Atlantic Ocean. Current shifts to positive AMO conditions imply a potential for increased wildfire synchrony during the next few decades, in addition to that attributed to global warming.Invasive Species Patterns Track Those of Native Species.5A review of patterns of species richness (the number of species in a given area) and species density (the mean number of species per square kilometer) for both native species and non-indigenous or invasive species of plants, birds, and fishes in the continental United States and Hawaii shows that the species densities of native and non-indigenous species are positively correlated for plants, birds, and fishes. The correlations of species densities between native and non-indigenous plants and native and non-indigenous birds are especially strong (r = 0.86 and 0.93, respectively). Densities of non-indigenous plant and bird species are also highly predictable with the densities of native plant species and native bird species being by far the strongest predictive variables. These results support the hypothesis that, at least for plant and bird species, "the rich get richer," in that areas with high densities of native species tend to be more susceptible to invasion by non-indigenous species. For plant and bird taxa in the continental United States, biodiversity itself does not appear to act as a barrier to species invasions.Estimates of Tropical Pacific Ocean Productivity Lowered.6![]() Coral Reef Management Guide.7A workshop of scientists and managers, co-led by several CCSP agencies under the auspices of the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force, resulted in compilation of A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. The combined research results among state/territorial, Federal, academic, nongovernmental, and international scientists concluded that warming sea surface temperatures are a key factor in mass coral bleaching events. The Guide provides managers with strategies to support the natural resilience of coral reefs in the face of climate change.Marine Pelagic Ecosystems: The West Antarctic Peninsula.8![]()
Nitrogen Limitation Constrains Sustainability of Ecosystem Response to CO2.9Using free-air CO2 enrichment technology in a prairie at the Cedar Creek Natural History Area in Minnesota, researchers in the BioCON (a long-term grassland project studying Biodiversity, CO2 and N interactions) experiment found that some of Earth’s plant life will not be able to sequester carbon from rising atmospheric CO2 levels as well as scientists once thought. Instead, soil nutrients such as nitrogen will limit plant growth even when atmospheric CO2 levels are higher. This study is the longest of its kind and consistent with other studies of trees and agricultural crops, providing evidence that nitrogen limitations may be common in the future in much of the world, despite widespread nitrogen pollution.Additional Past Accomplishments:
References1) Torn, M.S. and J. Harte, 2006: Missing feedbacks, asymmetric uncertainties, and the under- estimation of future warming. Geophysical Research Letters, 33, L10703, doi:10.1029/2005GL025540.2) Lanksbury, J.A., J.T. Duffy-Anderson, K.L. Mier, M.S. Busby, and, P.J. Stabeno, 2007: Distribution and transport patterns of Northern rock sole, Lepidopsetta polyxystra, larvae in the southeastern Bering Sea. Progress in Oceanography, 72, 39-62. 3) Millar, C.I., J.C. King, R.D. Westfall, H.A. Alden, and D.L. Delany, 2006: Late Holocene forest dynamics, volcanism, and climate change at Whitewing Mountain and San Joaquin Ridge, Mono County, Sierra Nevada, CA, USA. Quaternary Research, 66, 273-287. 4) Kitzberger, T., P.M. Brown, E.K. Heyerdahl, T.W. Swetnam, and T.T. Veblen, 2007: Contingent Pacific-Atlantic Ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 104, 543-548. 5) Stohlgren, T.J., D. Barnett, C. Flather, P. Fuller, B. Peterjohn, J. Kartesz, and L.L. Master, 2006: Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States. Biological Invasions, 8, 427-447. 6) Behrenfeld, M.J., K. Worthington, R.M. Sherrell, F.P. Chavez, P. Strutton, M. McPhaden, and D.M. Shea, 2006: Controls on tropical Pacific Ocean productivity revealed through nutrient stress diagnostics. Nature, 442, 1025-1028. 7) Marshall, P.A. and H.Z. Schuttenberg, 2006: A Reef Manager’s Guide to Coral Bleaching. Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Australia. 8) Ducklow, H.W., K. Baker, D.G. Martinson, L.B. Quetin, R.M. Ross, R.C. Smith, S.E. Stammerjohn, M. Vernet, and W. Fraser, 2006. Marine pelagic ecosystems: the West Antarctic Peninsula. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 362, 67-94. 9) Reich, P.B., S.E. Hobbie, T. Lee, D.S. Ellsworth, J.B. West, D. Tilman, J.M.H. Knops, S. Naeem, and J. Trost, 2006. Nitrogen limitation constrains sustainability of ecosystem response to CO2. Nature, 440, 922-925.
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