Fast Analysis and Simulation Team (FAST)

As the NISAC models have developed and matured, DHS has utilized the analysis team to evaluate potential threats to the nation’s infrastructures.  These threats can and do present NISAC with questions that go beyond the boundaries of any individual modeling capability or expert set. Also, these analysis requests are frequently quick turn-arounds, with delivery deadlines ranging from just a few hours to a number of days.  NISAC provides this broad set of consequence analyses on an as-needed basis.

The Fast Analysis and Simulation Team (FAST) was formulated to serve as a central resource point for DHS in providing relevant and practical information in response to issues of national importance under limited time constraints.

Models and tools developed by NISAC, as well as the significant subject matter expertise contained within the NISAC team, are used to provide insight and analysis pertaining to the questions as posed. FAST also integrates expertise from throughout NISAC, including the core partners, their collaborators and system experts.

Diagram of modeling analysis contributing to FAST responses

Information Focus

The information and analyses supplied by the team cover wide-ranging subjects; however, some common themes include:

Analyses include simulations of each infrastructure sector. Simulation tools include economic modeling and dynamic simulations of infrastructures and their interdependencies.

In some cases, an analysis can be completed without running computer-generated simulations, relying instead on the subject matter and technical expertise resident in the program staff and data assessment using spatial or other appropriate techniques. Toolsets developed by NISAC support the archiving of knowledge, previous analyses, and simulations. Frequently, ‘nuggets of information,’ or interesting and salient facts discerned from data mining, will provide insight into an issue, determining the focus of the analysis.

Synopses of FAST Analysis Products

 

Date

Study Title

Brief Summary

10/22-26/2007

Southeast Drought Analysis

Multiple reports concerning potential population impacts and cascading effects on other infrastructures

10/23-26/2007

Analysis of Potential Infrastructure Impacts due to Southern California Wildfires

24/7 operations examining significant infrastructure impacts associated with the occurrence of multiple wildfires burning during the week of 10/23/2007

10/15-18/2007

Analytical Support for Top Officials Exercise 4 (TOPOFF IV)

24/7 operations analyzing significant infrastructure impacts associated with simulated detonations of 3 RDDs (Radioactive Dispersal Devices)

9/26/2007

Mexico Critical Energy Infrastructure

Analysis of potential US effects of disruption to Mexico energy infrastructures

8/28/2007

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for New Orleans, Post-Katrina

Study designed to provide insight into impacts to critical infrastructures and populations of a hurricane making landfall in the New Orleans area, given best-possible post-Katrina infrastructure information.

8/18-20/2007

Hurricane Dean Impact Analysis Report (Pre-event)

Analyses of potential infrastructure and economic effects if storm were to impact southern Texas area

8/14/2007

Railcar Toxic Inhalant Hazard Release Scenario

Analysis of 2 potential release scenarios and the resulting population and infrastructure impacts

8/11-14/2007

Hurricane Flossie Impact Analysis Report  (Pre-event)

Analyses of potential infrastructure impacts if storm were to make landfall in Hawaii

8/3/2007

Impacts of the Interstate 35W Bridge Failure

Projected infrastructure impacts and economic effects resulting from bridge collapse

5/29/2007

Asset Analysis for Dam

Identification of infrastructure dependencies and potential cascading impacts of a dam failure

5/9-11/2007

Exercise Support for Ardent Sentry NuDet Exercise 2007

NISAC analysis of blast damage and contamination effects on  infrastructure due to detonation of radiological device

4/30/2007

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Tallahassee, Florida Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyze their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 4 hurricane making landfall on the northern Florida gulf coast just south of Tallahassee.

4/30/2007

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Savannah, Georgia Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyze their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 4 hurricane making landfall south of Savannah, Georgia.

3/28/2007

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the New England Area

NISAC analysis of hurricane impacts in support of Ardent Sentry Northern Edge 2007 Exercise, updated for DHS archive 5/14/2007

10/25/2006

(NISAC) Proposed Analyses for Identification of Key Chemical Facilities and Chokepoints

Requested scope and needs assessment for capability development

10/23/2006

Tier 1 Asset List and Criteria

Review and compile a listing of infrastructure assets that would potentially meet a modified set of DHS Tier 1 consequence criteria.

10/16/2006

Tier 1 Asset List and Criteria

Review and compile a listing of infrastructure assets that would potentially meet DHS Tier 1 consequence criteria.

8/30/2006;
9/05/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Charleston, South Carolina Area (Submitted 8/30/06, revised 9/05/06)

NISAC analysis of hurricane impact for Charleston, SC area. Storm parameters based on historical information and projections for Tropical Storm Ernesto.

8/11/2006; 8/13/2006

Impacts of UK Plane Terror Plot on U.S. Air Transportation System and U. S. Economy (Submitted 8/11/06, updated 8/13/06)

Analysis of the potential impacts of recently implemented air travel protective measure, including the banning of all liquids, on the US air transportation system and on the U.S. economy

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Tampa, FL Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 4 hurricane making landfall in the Tampa, FL area.

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the New York City Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 3 hurricane making landfall just west of New York City.

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Mobile Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 5 hurricane making landfall near Mobile, Alabama.

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Mid-Atlantic Region

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 4 hurricane making landfall in the Mid-Atlantic region.

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Miami, Florida Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 5 hurricane making landfall in Miami, FL.

8/02/2006

Hurricane Scenario Analysis for the Houston/Galveston Area

NISAC developed simulated hurricane scenarios and analyzed their impacts to populations and to critical infrastructures. This study addressed the impact of a hypothetical Category 4 hurricane making landfall at Houston, Texas.

8/02/06

Regional Infrastructure Analysis: Potential Hurricane Impacts on Energy Sectors in the Northern and Western Gulf Coast Region, Tampa, FL, and Elizabeth NJ

Several regional concentrations of critical energy infrastructure potentially vulnerable to hurricane damage were identified and analyzed.

8/02/2006

2006 Pre-Hurricane Scenario Analyses
Executive Summary

Summary of methodology for 1) impact analyses of six simulated hurricanes making landfall in regions at high hurricane risk, and 2) analysis of potential regional energy infrastructure impacts.

8/1/2006

Review of
“Guidelines for Identifying National level Critical Infrastructure and key Resources (FY07 Tier 2 Program)”

NISAC reviewed criteria for identification of Tier 2 critical assets and key resources, and provided suggested modifications.

6/20/2006

NISAC Evaluation of the TOPOFF IV Exercise Scenario

NISAC analyzed infrastructure impacts associated with the TOPOFF IV scenario, for use during the exercise.

4/20/2006

International Energy Infrastructure Support

NISAC provided information on potential single points of failure within the international energy infrastructure that could significantly impact the US economy or security.

3/30/2006

The Economic Impact of a Thirty Day
Interruption of Shipping through Soo Locks

Brief analysis of projected economic losses due to hypothetical temporary closure of Soo Locks.

3/29/2006

Summary of NISAC Analysis Efforts for DHS RMD In Support of National IED Task Force

Report provided examples of infrastructure-specific concerns resulting from the potential use of Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).

3/1/2006

NISAC/CIPDSS: Potential Questions (3/1/06)

Support to DHS for cross-sector compilation of issues and modeling and analysis tools for potential use in influenza pandemic planning and response. (Participants in CAP-WG, the Consequence Assessment and Policy Working Group.)

3/1/2006

Support for CATF2 Table-Top Exercise:
Bio Attack

Support to DHS for the CATF-2 biological attack table-top exercise. Report presented results of NISAC analyses relevant to the exercise scenario and exercise decision points.

2/23/2006

NISAC Proposed Short-Term Analyses to Support CATF 2 Table Top Exercise

Proposal to provide analysis support to DHS for a CATF-2 smallpox table-top exercise.

2/22/2006,

Revised CAP NISAC-CIP/DSS Models Matrix

Support to DHS for cross-sector compilation of issues and modeling / analysis tools for potential use in influenza pandemic planning and response. (Participants in CAP-WG, the Consequence Assessment and Policy Working Group.)

1/18/2006

(NISAC)
Proposed Analyses to Support Cyber Storm Exercise

Proposals to support Cyber Storm

12/16/2005

NISAC – CIP/DSS Work Plan: Effects of Potential Influenza Pandemic on Infrastructure Function

Proposals for continued Avian Influenza Analyses (1 month and 6-month)

12/7/2005

Joint NISAC - CIP/DSS
Analysis of Avian Influenza Virus Issues for the Catastrophic Assessment Task Force (CATF) Table-Top Exercise

Support for Principal’s Avian Influenza Exercise: 1-month deliverable providing relevant information and modeling results.

11/18/2005

Joint NISAC - CIP/DSS
Preliminary Results for Avian Influenza Analyses

Support for Principal’s Avian Influenza Exercise: 1 – 2 week deliverable providing relevant information and modeling results.

10/31/2005

Asset-Based Updates to National Hazards Assessment (2)

In response to a request from the Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection, our National Hazards Assessment was supplemented with this asset-based analysis, which identified two sets of critical assets: a smaller and then a more inclusive set.

10/19-21/2005

NISAC Summary Report: Assets in the Potential Path of Hurricane Wilma. 10/19/05

Pre-Event Analysis: Potential Impacts of Hurricane Wilma 10/20/05

Issues Associated with Lake Okeechobee Levee System. 10/21/2005

NISAC provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane. Provided 1) an initial analysis, 2) a detailed analysis based on a later and more accurate forecast, and 3) a short report on location-specific issues.

10/18/2005

U.S. Hazards Assessment: Preliminary Report

National Hazards Assessment: In response to a request from the Assistant Secretary for Infrastructure Protection, this analysis was conducted to identify the most important national hazards based on consequence and likelihood.

10/11/2005

Chemical Producers in Detroit Area

NISAC was tasked to do a supply chain analysis for the chemical industries in the Detroit area.

9/20-23/2005

Hurricane Rita: 4 Pre-event reports

NISAC provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane. Provided a series of reports in response to changes in predicted hurricane trajectory and wind speed predictions.

9/18/2005

Review of Priority Assets

Reviewed asset list provided by DHS to determine 1) if assets were truly high-priority, 2) justification for considering certain assets as high priority, and 3) additional assets that should be considered as high priority.   

8/30 - 9/16/2005

Hurricane Katrina: 10 Post-event reports

NISAC provided a series of analyses and updates, focusing on national implications of impacted and shut-down critical infrastructure facilities in the Gulf Coast region.

9/12/2005

Ophelia Impact Analysis Report  (Pre-event)

NISAC provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane.

8/27-28/2005

Hurricane Katrina: 2 Pre-event reports

NISAC provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of the Gulf Coast landfall for this hurricane. Some of this information was also provided to DOE/OEA. Pre-event reports provided economic estimates with and without potential flooding of New Orleans.

8/5/2005

NISAC Review of Memorandum of September July 9, 2005, from Dr. Bill Hancock

Provided a review of cyber security information provided to DHS.

7/28/2005

Mass Transit Subway and Rail System Tunnels

Provided information on tunnels used in mass transit systems.

7/18/2005

Projected Impacts of Hurricane Emily on
U.S. Energy Infrastructure

2-page analysis of potential effects of this hurricane on the US. Turnaround in 5 hours.

7/10/2005

Impact of the July 7th Terrorist Bombings on the Telecommunications Infrastructure of London

Impact of July 7th Terrorist Bombings on the Telecommunications Infrastructure of London

7/9/2005

Assessment of Hurricane Dennis (7/9/05)

NISAC product, 7 hour turnaround.

7/9/2005

Assessment of Hurricane Dennis (7/9/05)

Participated in DOE’s Visualization and Modeling Working Group (VMWG) pre-event analysis.

7/8/2005

Pacific Northwest Assets Located in Seismic Areas

Developed seismic hazard maps based on peak ground acceleration, enumerated assets in higher risk regions.2 ½ days

7/8/2005

Preliminary assessment of Hurricane Dennis (7/8/05)

NISAC product, 1 ½ hour turnaround.

6/17/2005

Potential Applications of
NISAC Capabilities in a National Emergency

Report on possible FAST analyses to support a DOD exercise or a national emergency situation.

4/19/2005

DOE OE Energy Emergency Exercise – Pacific Northwest Scenario

SNL, LANL, ANL, ORNL, and NETL formed a virtual laboratory visualization team and participated in the analysis of an energy disruption scenario. This exercise was conducted by the DOE Office of Energy Assurance.

4/13/2005

Support for Methodologies in Asset Prioritization

Based upon a sampling from the National Asset Database, developed a binning system and binned a set of assets. FAST team provided analysis to MAP-IP.

4/5/2005

 

4/6/2005

NISAC Fast Analysis Daily Report 1 Top Officials (TOPOFF) Exercise TOPOFF 3

NISAC Fast Analysis Daily Report 2 Top Officials (TOPOFF) Exercise TOPOFF 3

Using real-time data, provided analyses during the TOPOFF3 exercise.

2/24/2005

Taxonomies – Banking and Finance, Telecommunications

Worked with Argonne National Laboratories to determine appropriate taxonomic classifications for three infrastructure sectors.

2/10/2005

Assessment of terrorist target selection methodology

Provided a review of a methodology proposed to DHS for terrorist target selection.

2/3/2005

Iraqi Infrastructure Surety Proposals

Provided a series of short proposals to leverage capabilities developed under NISAC to enhance Iraqi infrastructure surety.

10/22/2004

Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) Funding Allocation

In response to a DHS request, SNL provided an analysis of a formulation designed to equitably distribute funds to metropolitan areas for use in threat protection. Report was submitted by MAP-IP, heavily supported by FAST team.

9/24/2004

Hurricane Jeanne

SNL, LANL, ANL and NETL provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane for DOE/OEA.

9/14/2004

Hurricane Ivan

NISAC and Argonne National Laboratory provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane. Some of this information was also provided to DOE/OEA.

9/9/2004

Complexity Work Analysis

Review of Albert, Albert and Nakarado, "Structural Vulnerability of the North American Power Grid"

9/2/2004

Hurricane Frances

NISAC provided analyses and critical infrastructure information in advance of landfall for this hurricane.

8/18/2004

Senior Officials Exercise - 4

NISAC SNL, as part of CIP/DSS, provided analyses and information in preparation for a Senior Officials table-top exercise. We are also leading development of the after-action report.

7/8/2005

Earthquake impact

Economic /infrastructure implications for fault slip due to a hypothetical M 6.7 earthquake along the Seattle Fault.

7/6/2004

Agricultural Crop Biodefense Architecture Study

What are economic implications of soy rust spreading in the SE? Presentation to project meeting.

6/29-30/2004

Dark Sun Table Top Exercise

The DOE OEA conducted two energy emergency table-top exercises. Sandia National Laboratories provided support to the DOE OEA in conducting these exercises.

6/2-11/2004

DOE Energy Disruption Scenario for California

SNL, LANL, ANL, ORNL, and NETL formed a virtual laboratory visualization team and participated in the analysis of an energy disruption scenario. SNL NISAC was the scenario developer for this exercise and was also responsible for analysis of national infrastructure interdependencies.

4/4/2004
and
4/22-28/2004

DOE Energy Disruption Scenario for Southern Florida

SNL, LANL, ANL, ORNL, and NETL formed a virtual laboratory visualization team and participated in the analysis of an energy disruption scenario. This exercise was conducted by the DOE Office of Energy Assurance.

2/1/2005

NISAC’s Capabilities with Regard to Tsunami Impact Calculations for India

Provided information concerning ways in which NISAC could assist in assessments of tsunami impacts.

1/7/2004

Portland Oregon exercise

Provided support for exercise; no report produced.

3/9/2004

Transportation Policy Analysis

Investigation of potential changes to policy based on concerns for certain transported commodities.

2/9/2004

National Asset Database Development

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), Information Analysis and Infrastructure Protection (IA/IP) - NISAC SNL conducted a brief analysis of the information and processes that would be required for assembly of a National Asset Database (NADB). (This effort was completed within several days.)

2/17/2004

National Asset Location Identification

NISAC provided a positive location (geospatial and/or street address) for named assets in the National Asset Database.

12/24/2003

Economic Impacts of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) Discovery

DHS S&T/CIP Portfolio Manager asked the CIP-DSS SNL team to conduct a one-day analysis of potential economic consequences due to the discovery of a cow in Washington State with BSE (mad cow) disease. (This effort was completed within 8 hours on Dec. 24th, Christmas eve.)

12/23/2003

Analysis of the
2003 Holiday Threat Asset List

NISAC provided a best-effort infrastructure interdependencies analysis of an asset list provided by DHS. Efforts focused on the chemical, energy, and air transportation infrastructures. (This effort was completed within 30 hours.)

11/18/2003

Scarlet Cloud Exercise Support

NISAC provided facts, relevant data, and informational support regarding infrastructure impacts for the DHS customer involved in a government-wide exercise involving a theoretical potential biological attack.

10/31/2003

Post-Event Evaluation of
Potential  Infrastructure Impacts of Hurricane Isabel

This report assessed the accuracy and scope of the original NISAC predictions of Hurricane Isabel’s impacts to infrastructure.

10/28/2003

Southern California Wildfire Damage Assessment

NISAC developed an economic assessment of damage from wildfires in Southern California in the Autumn of 2003, based upon publicly available data.
(Unsolicited, but saw an opportunity to provide info that we had)

9/17/2003

Potential Infrastructure Impacts
of Hurricane Isabel

NISAC provided an assessment of the potential impacts of Hurricane Isabel to U.S. infrastructure. (This study was completed within 2 days, with an update provided one day later.)

9/17/2003

Electric Power Consequence Analysis

NISAC performed a consequence analysis with examination of infrastructure interdependencies based on the theoretical loss of a particular substation.

8/17/2003

Railroad Transport Disruption Analysis

NISAC provided a model and commensurate analysis of the impact of the loss of particular railroad infrastructure assets on the flow of commodities. (This study was completed within 90 days.)

8/14/2003

Chlorine Transport Disruption Analysis

NISAC identified the economic and public health and safety impacts that would result from potential disruptions to the transportation of elemental chlorine. (This study was completed within 90 days.)