ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 150826
   
   DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2008
   
   VALID 171200Z - 231200Z
   
   ...DISCUSSION...
   THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE
   EVOLUTION OF THE CLOSED LOW OFFSHORE OF CA...AND WITH THE MORE
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL FOLLOW. REGARDLESS...A
   PATTERN CHANGE AND BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY LEAD TO
   AN ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD.
   
   BY LATE D3 THE MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
   PAC NW. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL STILL EXIST AT THE SURFACE AHEAD
   OF THIS AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN...AND THERMAL INSTABILITY
   WILL CONTINUE TO EXASPERATE NEW/ONGOING FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW.
   FURTHERMORE...SWLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE...AND
   RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE DRY THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 
   
   D4 CERTAINTY DECREASES FURTHER...WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE LOW A BIT
   FARTHER S TOWARDS THE OR/NRN CA COAST...WHILE THE ECM PREFERS A MORE
   NRN ROUTE. REGARDLESS...SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS INDICATIVE THAT
   MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FORECAST
   COOLING ALOFT AND LIFT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW SHOULD BE
   CONDUCIVE AS WELL. PREFERRED AREA OF THESE STORMS WILL OF COURSE
   DEPEND ON THE PATH OF THE LOW.
   
   D5 ONWARD THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
   LOW...WITH SOME DETERMINISTIC MODELS WEAKENING IT OVER THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE OTHERS QUICKLY DRIVE IT EWD. A WEAKER
   SOLUTION MAY END UP BEING PREFERRED...GIVEN THE CURRENT STRENGTH OF
   THE RIDGE.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 09/15/2008
   
   ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
   
   $$

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