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gfdl's home page > gfdl on-line bibliography > 1994: Geophysical Research Letters, 21(21), 2295-2298
Impact of increased CO2 on simulated ENSO-like phenomena
| Knutson, T. R., and S. Manabe, 1994: Impact of increased CO2 on simulated ENSO-like phenomena. Geophysical Research Letters, 21(21), 2295-2298. |
| Abstract: The impact of a CO2-induced global warming on ENSO-like fluctuations in a global coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM is analyzed using two multi-century experiments. In the 4xCO2 experiment, CO2 increases by a factor of four in the first 140 years and then remains constant at 4xCO2 for another 360 years; in the control experiment, CO2 remains constant at 1xCO2 for 1000 years. The standard deviation of tropical Pacific SST fluctuations (7°N-7°S, 173°E-120°W; 2 to 15 year timescales) is 24% lower in the 4xCO2 experiment than in the control experiment; for the model's Southern Oscillation Index, a 19% decrease occurs, whereas for central tropical Pacific rainfall, a 3% increase occurs. An important feature of the control simulation is the internally generated modulation of variability on a multi-century timescale, which is comparable in magnitude to the changes occurring with 4xCO2. We conclude that despite an order 5 K warming of the tropical Pacific, and order 50% increase in time-mean atmospheric water vapor under 4xCO2 conditions, ENSO-like SST fluctuations in the coupled model do not intensify, but rather decrease slightly in amplitude. |