NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER |
Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories are intended mainly for ships at sea and other marine interests, but they are also very useful to emergency managers because they contain wind field information in the standard format of 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hour forecast positions (see the example below from Hurricane Isidore, 2002). These products generally include the following information
Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories are issued at 6-hour intervals, but special forecasts/advisories may be issued to provide information about any abrupt or significant change that may have occurred since the time of the last regular forecast/advisory. The example below is an advisory from Hurricane Isidore (2002) modified to show the 5-day forecasts.WTNT25 KNHC 230300 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL1002 0300Z MON SEP 23 2002 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CAMPECHE NORTH AND EASTWARD TO TULUM...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 150SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 89.5W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 89.4W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N 90.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 20SE 25SW 40NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...180NE 60SE 60SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N 91.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 45NE 25SE 25SW 45NW. 50 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.8N 92.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. 50 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 180NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.8N 92.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT. 50 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 100NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N 92.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N 93.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 89.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ NNNN |
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