Text Only Version
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERReturn to National Hurricane Center
Hurricane Awareness  

Tropical Cyclone Forecast/ Advisories

Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories are intended mainly for ships at sea and other marine interests, but they are also very useful to emergency managers because they contain wind field information in the standard format of 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, 72-, 96-, and 120-hour forecast positions (see the example below from Hurricane Isidore, 2002). These products generally include the following information

  • Watches and warnings
  • Present conditions and accuracy
  • Eye diameter
  • 120-hour forecast maximum sustained wind speeds and gusts
  • 120-hour forecast wind radii for the 34 kt, 50 kt, 64 kt winds (shown in red below)
  • Tides
  • Request for ship reports
  • Time of next advisory
  • The forecaster's name

Tropical cyclone forecasts/advisories are issued at 6-hour intervals, but special forecasts/advisories may be issued to provide information about any abrupt or significant change that may have occurred since the time of the last regular forecast/advisory.

The example below is an advisory from Hurricane Isidore (2002) modified to show the 5-day forecasts.

WTNT25 KNHC 230300
TCMAT5

HURRICANE ISIDORE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL1002
0300Z MON SEP 23 2002
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CAMPECHE NORTH AND
EASTWARD TO TULUM...INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF COZUMEL.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  89.5W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 220 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  25SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT.......200NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 200SE 150SW 300NW.              
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  89.5W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  89.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.7N  90.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  20SE  25SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...180NE  60SE  60SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.0N  91.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  25SE  25SW  45NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.8N  92.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 125SW 180NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 22.8N  92.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N  93.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.
               
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.  NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 22.8N  92.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 25.0N  93.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N  89.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH

$$ 
NNNN

Visit NWS.gov
NWS
Visit NOAA.gov
NOAA
Visit FEMA.gov
FEMA