The 2008 preliminary tornado count has been climbing dramatically. By most accounts, the year is off to a record start in tornado numbers. It is important to understand that the preliminary count for 2008 is based on Local Storm Reports (LSRs) transmitted by local National Weather Service Forecast Offices around the country. The preliminary tornado count is an overestimate because duplicate reports are often transmitted for a single tornado (This is especially true for long-track significant tornadoes!). With time, these numbers are refined and published in the National Weather Service Storm Data publication.
January 2008, with 88 tornadoes based on Storm Data, was not a record for January. January 1999 retains the record with 212 tornadoes documented in Storm Data. February 2008, with 148 actual tornadoes, appears to have established a new record for that month. The old February record of 83 tornadoes was established in 1971. The 30-year averag e number of tornadoes for January and February is about 23 each month. Obviously, 2008 started out with well above normal tornado activity!
* Note! Given the changes observed between the preliminary numbers and the numbers appearing in Storm Data, an estimated curve has been added for 2008 to date. This curve is based on an approximate 30% reduction in the preliminary numbers. Estimates of the actual tornado count can be calculated by taking the preliminary count and multiplying by 0.70. This is only a rough estimate and actual figures will be added to the thick red line as those numbers become available.