DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2008
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...
SYNOPSIS...
SEPTEMBER HAS BEGUN JUST LIKE AUGUST... DRY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE FIRST 12 DAYS OF THE MONTH HAVE BEEN SPARSE... AVERAGING
LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BROUGHT SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS... UP TO TWO
INCHES... ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY NEAR THE VIRGINIA BORDER
IN RECENT DAYS BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF EAST KENTUCKY IS RUNNING
FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FOR THE MONTH. AS A
RESULT... THE LATEST EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR RELEASED ON
THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 11TH CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST GENERALLY SOUTH OF A CLAY CITY...
JACKSON... ELKHORN CITY LINE. FOR A THIN SLIVER OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER... INCLUDING THE CITY OF
MIDDLESBORO... SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED.
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED NORTH OF A
CLAY CITY... JACKSON... ELKHORN CITY LINE.
SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...
SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
AS OF FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12TH... MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN THE
TOP 12 INCHES OF SOIL ARE AVERAGING ONLY 40 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
TAKING A DEEPER SAMPLE REVEALS THAT THE SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 72
INCHES OF SOIL IS AVERAGING ONLY 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF NORMAL.
AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS.
THE LATEST EDITION OF THE KENTUCKY WEEKLY CROP AND WEATHER REPORT...
ISSUED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 8TH INDICATES THAT 80 PERCENT OF KENTUCKY
TOPSOIL IS NOW RATED AT SHORT OR VERY SHORT FOR SOIL MOISTURE AND 78
PERCENT OF KENTUCKY SUBSOIL IS RATED AT SHORT OR VERY SHORT FOR SOIL
MOISTURE. REPORTS FROM ACROSS THE STATE INDICATE THAT SOYBEAN CROP
YIELDS MAY BE REDUCED AND PASTURE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DECLINE
BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS.
FIRE DANGER IMPACTS.
FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW ACROSS THE AREA BUT FIRE
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED IN RECENT DAYS IN BREATHITT... FLOYD...
JACKSON... JOHNSON... KNOTT... LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES. AS OF
FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 12TH... BURN BANS CONTINUE IN EFFECT FOR FLOYD...
JOHNSON... MAGOFFIN... MARTIN AND PIKE COUNTIES. THOSE WANTING TO
CONDUCT OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD CONTACT YOUR LOCAL COUNTY
JUDGE/EXECUTIVE FOR MORE INFORMATION.
CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE FOLLOWING TABLE ILLUSTRATES THE SHORT... MEDIUM... AND LONG
RANGE PRECIPITATION DEFICITS OR SURPLUSES BEING OBSERVED AT SEVERAL
EAST KENTUCKY OBSERVING STATIONS. THESE AMOUNTS INCLUDE
PRECIPITATION WHICH FELL THROUGH MIDNIGHT SEPTEMBER 12TH...
MONTH DEPART| SINCE DEPART| SINCE DEPART
STATION COUNTY TO DATE NRML | 1JAN08 NRML | 1SEP07 NRML
| |
CAVE RUN LAKE ROWAN 0.20 -1.12 | 36.97 +2.21 | 51.94 +6.52
WEST LIBERTY MORGAN 0.01 -1.24 | 29.92 -2.92 | 44.58 +1.59
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 0.53 -0.87 | 29.01 -6.51 | 41.36 -5.81
BUCKHORN PERRY 0.10 -1.34 | 29.04 -5.44 | 41.35 -3.70
MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 0.04 -1.52 | 31.46 -6.40 | 47.33 -2.87
SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 0.02 -1.49 | 29.70 -6.94 | 44.70 -3.94
LONDON ASOS LAUREL T -1.38 | 26.31 -7.23 | 38.50 -6.05
MONTICELLO WAYNE 0.19 -1.37 | 27.49 -9.43 | 38.17 -10.64
PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE IKE WILL RACE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY... THE BULK OF THE RAIN FROM IKE
WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FALLING BACK TO BELOW NORMAL RANGES BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 20TH THROUGH FRIDAY
SEPTEMBER 26TH IS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THE LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE REST OF SEPTEMBER... OCTOBER AND
NOVEMBER OF 2008... ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
INDICATES A PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...
AS OF SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH... STREAMFLOWS ON MOST AREA RIVERS ARE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL... PARTICULARLY ON THE UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE
RIVERS. FLOWS DO HOWEVER RANK BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL ON THE RED
RIVER AT CLAY CITY AND NEAR HAZEL GREEN... THE MIDDLE FORK OF THE
KENTUCKY AT TALLEGA... THE SOUTH FORK OF THE KENTUCKY AT
BOONEVILLE... AND ON THE ROCKCASTLE RIVER NEAR BILLOWS.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WE ARE COMING UP ON THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
DRIEST TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AREA AND STREAM FLOWS ARE NORMALLY
RATHER LOW AS WE MOVE FROM SEPTEMBER INTO THE MONTH OF OCTOBER.
THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER REPORTS THAT LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL
OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AND SMALL WATER SUPPLY LAKES ARE
AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND CONTINUE TO OPERATE
ALONG THEIR NORMAL LAKE ELEVATION CURVES.
NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
THE NEXT DROUGHT STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED ON MONDAY SEPTEMBER 28TH
2008... OR SOONER IF NECESSARY IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CONDITIONS.
&&
RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NOAA.GOV
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...7
HTTP://WWW.NASS.USDA.GOV
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
HTTP://WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
HTTP://WWW.FORESTRY.KY.GOV/
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN
GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK
STATIONS...THE USGS...AND THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
1329 AIRPORT ROAD
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
PHONE: 606-666-2560
W-JKL.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
$$
ABE