DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL 1040 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 ...LITTLE CHANGE IN DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA... SYNOPSIS... SOME SCATTERED RAIN FELL ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA DURING THE PAST TWO WEEKS...BUT DID LITTLE TO CHANGE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN NORTHEAST MARION AND NORTHERN WINSTON COUNTY...AND ALSO NORTH OF A LINE FROM BLOUNTSVILLE TO STEELE TO RANBURNE IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA. THE REMAINING AREAS IN CENTRAL ALABAMA ARE NOW NORMAL TO ABNORMALLY DRY. THE DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFIES DROUGHT WITHIN ONE OF THESE FIVE CATEGORIES: 1) ABNORMALLY DRY 2) MODERATE 3) SEVERE 4) EXTREME 5) EXCEPTIONAL SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... SOCIAL IMPACTS... AREA RESERVOIRS HAVE LEVELED OFF OR BEGUN TO FALL SLOWLY AGAIN FOLLOWING THE RISES THAT OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH TROPICAL STORM FAY. HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF MUNICIPAL WATER SHORTAGES HAS EASED AS WE HEAD INTO SEPTEMBER AND TOWARD COOLER FALL WEATHER. RECENT RAINFALL HAS ALSO BEEN BENEFICIAL TO LAWNS AND GARDENS...INCREASING TOP SOIL MOISTURES FOR PLANTS AND VEGETATION. HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS... TOP SOIL MOISTURE PROFILES HAVE IMPROVED FOLLOWING OUR RECENT RAINFALL. ONLY NINETEEN PERCENT OF SOILS ARE NOW INDICATED AS BEING DRY OR VERY DRY. ALTHOUGH SUB SOIL MOISTURES MAY HAVE BENEFITED SLIGHTLY FROM THE RECENT RAINFALL...DEFICITS STILL EXIST AS EVIDENCED BY SOME FARM PONDS BEGINNING TO DRY UP ONCE AGAIN AS LESS RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER THE AREA. AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS... THE USDA STATES THAT THE CONDITION OF SOME ROW CROPS HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWING RECENT RAINFALL. THE RAINFALL HAS HELPED THE PEANUT AND COTTON CROPS...AND LIVESTOCK HAVE SHOWN SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT AS PASTURE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED A LITTLE. THE LATEST REPORTS FROM THE USDA: CROP % POOR OR WORSE % FAIR OR BETTER CORN 33% 67% COTTON 15% 85% PEANUT 3% 97% SOYBEAN 28% 72% LIVESTOCK 13% 87% PASTURE 20% 80% FIRE DANGER IMPACTS... GENERALLY SPEAKING...THE FIRE DANGER RISK ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE DUE TO THE RECENT FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS. KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDICES (KBDI) GENERALLY RANGE FROM 250 TO 500 WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES. VALUES ABOVE 500 INDICATE A SEVERE FIRE DANGER. THE ALABAMA FORESTRY COMMISSION REPORTS THAT NO COUNTIES ARE CURRENTLY UNDER A FIRE ALERT. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RAINFALL HAS BEEN MORE SCATTERED AND NOT AS HEAVY SINCE TROPICAL STORM FAY AND ITS EFFECTS EXITED THE STATE. SO FAR THIS MONTH RAINFALL HAS VARIED FROM A LITTLE OVER AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS TO VIRTUALLY NONE IN OTHER AREAS. FOR THE YEAR...RAINFALL IS AVERAGING FROM THIRTY THREE TO FORTY EIGHT INCHES...WITH THE LOWEST AMOUNTS GENERALLY FOUND IN WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS. NORMAL RAINFALL FOR SEPTEMBER AVERAGES BETWEEN THREE AND ONE QUARTER TO FOUR AND ONE QUARTER INCHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE BEEN AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SOME PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA JANUARY 1ST THROUGH SEPTEMBER 10TH: BIRMINGHAM 43.91 MONTGOMERY 39.63 ANNISTON 38.36 TUSCALOOSA 33.53 CALERA 48.33 TROY 36.42 AVERAGE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FROM JANUARY 1ST THROUGH SEPTEMBER 10TH: BIRMINGHAM 38.95 UP 4.96 MONTGOMERY 39.91 DOWN 0.28 ANNISTON 38.55 DOWN 0.19 TUSCALOOSA 41.59 DOWN 8.06 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF HURRICANE IKE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE IKE MOVES NORTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. BUT...BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL COULD MATERIALIZE IF THE REMNANTS OF IKE BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM AND IMPACT ALABAMA MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK...FROM SEPTEMBER 18TH THROUGH SEPTEMBER 24TH... CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK FOR THE REMAINDER OF SEPTEMBER THROUGH NOVEMBER IS FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE LATEST SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK INDICATES SOME IMPROVEMENT OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK... MOST STREAM FLOWS REPORTED BY USGS GAGES REMAIN NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL. PERIODIC RAINFALL WOULD HELP MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL STREAM FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. MOST RESERVOIRS HAVE LEVELED OFF OR FALLEN A LITTLE DURING THE PAST WEEK. LISTED BELOW ARE TODAY'S LEVELS FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR RESERVOIRS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THEIR LEVELS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING TROPICAL STORM FAY: RESERVOIR LEVEL FOR 09/11/2008 LEVEL FOR 08/28/2008 WEISS 562.9 563.5 NEELY HENRY 507.4 507.3 LOGAN MARTIN 464.4 464.7 LAY 395.7 396.1 MITCHELL 311.7 311.9 JORDAN 251.4 251.4 R.L. HARRIS 790.3 791.0 MARTIN 488.6 488.9 SMITH 499.3 500.8 BANKHEAD 254.6 254.7 HOLT 186.2 186.1 ...UPDATE STATEMENT... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND SEPTEMBER 25TH...OR EARLIER IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE CURRENT DROUGHT SITUATION OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES:
OUR LOCAL WEB PAGE...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx/
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
NOAA DROUGHT PAGE...
http://www.drought.noaa.gov/
U.S.G.S. WEB PAGE...
http://water.usgs.gov/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER /CPC/...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... SOME OF THE INFORMATION USED IN THIS STATEMENT WAS PROVIDED BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE...THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY...THE ALABAMA STATE FORESTRY COMMISSION...AND ALABAMA POWER COMPANY. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS... IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 465 WEATHERVANE ROAD CALERA AL 35040-5427 PHONE: 205-664-3010 E-MAIL: SR-BMX.webmaster@noaa.gov