HPC - Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Current Products

Short Range

Medium Range

QPF

Exces. Rain/
Wint. Wx

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QPF's: 24-Hourly 6-Hourly Days 4-5 5-Day Total
Medium Range: Min Temps Max Temps Prob of Pcpn (PoP)

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Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts

How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed

24-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Annual HPC Day-1 / Update / Day-2 Threat Scores and Observed Areal Coverage; Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 Bias

.50 inch (1972-2001)	1.00 inch (1965-2001)	2.00 inches (1970-2001)
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Annual HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores 1991-2001

	1.00 inch
Day 1	Threat

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias March 2001 to March 2002

	.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Day 1	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 2	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias
Day 3	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00") March 2001 to March 2002

Day 1	Day 2	Day 3
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3) March 2001 to March 2002

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

6-Hourly QPF's

Monthly Record Threat Scores

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Update March 2001 to March 2002

00-06 Hours

.25 inch

.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 1 March 2001 to March 2002

06-12 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
12-18 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
18-24 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
24-30 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 2 March 2001 to March 2002

30-36 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
36-42 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
42-48 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
48-54 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores Day 3 March 2001 to March 2002 (No forecasts Jun-Sep 2001)

54-60 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
60-66 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
66-72 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch
72-78 Hours	.25 inch	.50 inch

Days 4-5 QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias March 2001 to March 2002

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias

Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons .50", 1.00", 2.00" March 2001 to March 2002

Threat

Bias

5-Day Total QPF's

Monthly HPC -vs- NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias March 2001 to March 2002

.50 inch	1.00 inch	2.00 inches	3.00 inches	4.00 inches
Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias	Threat Bias