NOAA 98-R235
Contact:  Robert Chartuk            FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
                                    9/4/98

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE EXPERTS MAKE LA NINA PREDICTIONS

The northeastern United States can expect a normal to slightly colder and wetter than average winter this year with hurricane activity expected to pick up due to the effects of La Nina, said climate experts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service at the first of a series of La Nina briefings scheduled across the country.

Speaking at a special La Nina briefing in Manhattan on Sept. 2, Anthony Barnston, a NOAA research meteorologist at the weather service's Climate Prediction Center in Washington, D.C., noted that this year's La Nina will reverse some of the impacts of El Nino, but will not have as great an impact on the global climate as her counterpart.

"While this forecast may not sound severe, it represents a major change from the very mild winter experienced last year in association with the strong El Nino," Barnston said. "What we're looking at with La Nina is a tilt of the odds toward a colder winter in the Northeast with more snow and perhaps bigger storms than usual."

The scientist added: "The further north you go, the greater the chance of a harsher than normal winter and the further south you go, the greater the chance of milder than normal weather with less precipitation," the researcher said.

In and around the New York metropolitan area, Barnston pointed out, "the tendency toward greater than normal snowfall is only slight, but even this may come as a shock compared to last winter's relatively balmy weather."

Armed with graphic analyses of conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean, Barnston explained the genesis of El Nino and the opposite climate phenomena, La Nina. "When warmer ocean waters dominate at the equator, you have an El Nino. When these waters are driven back to the western Pacific by colder waters, you have a La Nina," Barnston said. These events, which are monitored by a network of buoys and satellites operated by NOAA, impact the weather throughout the world.

A busier than average hurricane season as predicted during this year's La Nina has gotten off to a slow start due to the fact that La Nina's colder waters have not yet pushed eastward to the coast of South America as far as expected. "We are looking at hurricane activity to accelerate in the latter half of the season," Barnston said, noting that the prediction center cannot say whether or not the storms will make landfall. "You could have a greater than average number of storms passing safely out to sea."

The Climate Prediction Center conducts statistical research and uses computer models to predict future climate trends. "Hurricanes and blizzards will still occur regardless of the impact of El Ninos and La Ninas," Barnston concluded. "While our research attempts to get a handle on the frequency and severity of weather events, the bottom line remains: people should be aware of severe weather and be prepared to take steps to protect life and property."

For more information on the Climate Prediction Center and its forecasts, log onto: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov