NOAA 98-082




CONTACT:  James H. Henderson                    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

          Patrick J. Slattery                      11/23/98

AVIATION WEATHER FORECASTING REACHES MILESTONE ANNIVERSARY

Less than 15 years after the Wright brothers' historic flights of December 1903, the National Weather Service, then the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Weather Bureau, issued the first official aviation forecast -- to help deliver the mail. Now, 80 years later, the agency issues thousands of aviation forecasts, advisories and warnings to make flying safe and efficient.

On Dec. 1, 1918, Weather Bureau forecasters combined ground observations with data collected by instrumented kites and tethered balloons to provide a forecast for the "Aerial Mail Service" route from New York to Chicago. The reporting network for that historic forecast consisted of 18 kite stations; six were operated by the Weather Bureau and the rest by the military.

That modest birth 80 years ago gave rise to a vast array of computer technology, weather satellites and data collected by en-route airliners to provide forecasts of developing weather phenomena.

"Since 1918, the NWS has made quantum leaps in aviation weather forecasting," said NWS Director John J. Kelly Jr. "Our goal is to continue that progression into and through the next millennium. Pilots of that era would be amazed by the complexity of aircraft, and they'd certainly be overwhelmed by the amount of weather information we provide every day to the airline industry, private pilots and aviation in general for safe and economic flights."

"Our geostationary and polar-orbiting satellites enable us to cover the entire globe, and state-of-the-art computers digest incredible amounts of weather data to help us make our forecasts," said David Rodenhuis, director of NWS' Aviation Weather Center. "Even with all these electronic advances, a good forecast of aviation weather hazards depends on our forecasters. Aviation was in its infancy when that first aviation forecast was issued, and so was weather forecasting. The people doing the work today have learned to grow with the technology and the science of meteorology."

Growing from that fledgling, single forecast for a handful of aircraft in 1918, forecasters at the Aviation Weather Center, NWS Weather Forecast Offices, and Center Weather Service Units working in Federal Aviation Administration Air Route Traffic Control Centers issue thousands of forecasts every day. With the improved services, the commercial and general aviation industries are able to save on fuel costs and select routes that avoid hazardous weather.

The Aviation Weather Center, one of nine units in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, was formed in 1995. More than 40 meteorologists at the center work closely with aviation weather research centers, the FAA, and the U.S. Air Force. The AWC issues en route warnings and forecasts over the continental United States. At Weather Forecast Offices, terminal and route forecasts are issued and updated continuously throughout the day. Aviation meteorologists at the Center Weather Service Units provide forecasts and consultation to FAA traffic managers at the FAA Air Route Traffic Control Centers. NWS Offices in Anchorage, Alaska; Honolulu; and Guam provide special aviation products for their respective areas.

A map of the daily weather forecasts for Dec. 1, 1918, is available on the Internet at http://www.outlook.noaa.gov/80thanniversary.

The NWS is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which operates under the U.S. Department of Commerce.