CONTACT:  Maria Cardona                 FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
          Barry Reichenbaugh            3/3/98

California and the Southeast United States, which have felt the brunt of El Nino-related severe weather this year, are most at risk for spring flooding, according to Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration experts who released their annual National Hydrologic Outlook today.

"We are not likely to see severe flooding as we did last year due to last winter's heavy snowfall," said Commerce Secretary William M. Daley. "However, all communities must be alert to flood warnings, especially in the central valley region of California, along the West Coast, in the southeastern United States and in New England."

Preliminary information on snow cover, soil conditions and stream flow conditions from local National Weather Service offices suggests that some areas will be at risk for springtime flooding, but considering existing conditions, so far there are no areas of extreme concern this spring. Even with the impact of El Nino, this spring does not look as bad as the spring of 1997, when NOAA correctly predicted record flooding for the Red River of the North.

An area of above average likelihood of flooding stretches like a triangle from east Texas, northeast through central Pennsylvania, and then south to include most of Florida. Precipitation has been plentiful through this region as several storms, following the strong southern jet stream, tapped Gulf of Mexico moisture and deposited it over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Soil conditions are very wet over this area and stream flow conditions show minor flooding is occurring in a number of basins over far eastern Texas, most of Louisiana, southwestern Arkansas, the southern half of Georgia, north-central Florida and along portions of the Carolina coastal plain. Locations on the Suwannee River in Florida saw some of the highest river levels in 50 years.

"This is good news for the coming spring," said Secretary Daley. "We are not likely to see severe snowmelt flooding. This is in part because El Nino brought warmer temperatures and less precipitation to areas most affected last spring."

Conditions in the Red River basin are different from a year ago. There is much less snow, and flooding will range from minor to moderate. Over the past 100 years, almost one year out of two has seen spring flooding on the Red River. Unless conditions change dramatically, flooding this year will be much less severe than in 1997.

Daley also used the news conference to announce a new Commerce Department Natural Disaster Reduction Initiative (NDRI) in the President's Fiscal Year 1999 Budget.

"We can do more to help prevent the damage that bad weather can do," said Daley, outlining a program that pools Commerce Department resources to help communities and businesses reduce the impact of natural disasters. "Commerce's NDRI brings together for the first time the resources of the Commerce Department to help build disaster resistant communities and jobs."

Secretary Daley described the NDRI as following a three-pronged approach. First, it seeks to lower weather-related losses through improved construction techniques. An additional $3 million a year will go for research on wind, seismic and fire engineering to make buildings more disaster resistant.

Second, the NDRI will improve prediction of damaging weather and related river flooding. As the United States experiences the century's worst El Nino, costs in California alone have exceeded $500 milIion. The President's budget provides an additional $55 million a year for weather and flood forecasting. One key element of this provision is the first phase of a national implementation of a new National Weather Service system to improve river forecasting. Daley said the National Weather Service's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) provides more accurate river forecasts with greater lead times for flood mitigation. The system also provides water volume availability forecasts for water users, providing money-saving information to many sectors of the economy.

Third, the NDRI will help communities and businesses safeguard jobs in hazard-prone areas. The President is requesting $3 million per year of new funding for economic development. Secretary Daley said this will allow the Department of Commerce to work in public-private partnership to build disaster-resistant communities.

"Two thirds of federal disaster aid is weather related," said Secretary Daley. "And though we cannot prevent bad weather, we are getting better at predicting it. The Commerce Department's NDRI will help save lives and protect property. We will be working closely with FEMA, the Interior Department and other federal agencies, with state and local governments and with our nation's businesses."

Commerce agencies involved in the NDRI include the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Institute for Science and Technology, International Trade Administration, Bureau of Export Administration, Economic Development Administration and Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The annual Spring Flood Outlook for the nation is a compilation of flood outlooks prepared by the NWS river forecast centers and weather forecast offices. NWS hydrologists and meteorologists work with federal, state and local agencies to gather snow, stream flow, soil moisture and river ice measurements, and combine that information with rainfall data, and short- and long-term weather forecasts to determine the likelihood of flooding throughout the United States.

For complete information, visit the National Spring Hydrologic Outlook Web site at: http://www.outlook.noaa.gov/floods98.