CONTACT:  Patricia Viets, NOAA/NESDIS       FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
          Stephanie Kenitzer, NOAA/NWS      6/22/98

After a spring influenced by El Nino, forecasters at the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting that La Nina conditions are developing and are likely to influence fall and winter weather patterns.

"As with the recent record El Nino, the Department of Commerce will work closely with our federal agency partners such as FEMA and state and local emergency managers to make sure that the latest weather information is available to prepare communities early and mitigate potential economic and safety impacts," said Commerce Secretary William M. Daley.

La Nina features colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. La Nina often implies drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer, the Southwest and central Plains in the fall and the Southwest and Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Nina. Additionally, on average La Nina winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.

"There was a rapid cooling of sea surface temperatures in sections of the equatorial Pacific during May as El Nino conditions rapidly dissipated," said Vern Kousky, research meteorologist with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Camp Springs, Md. "The cooling trend is likely to continue with the development of La Nina conditions during the next three to six months. We expect that La Nina will be impacting weather patterns around the globe this fall and into next winter."

"These forecasts are a prime example of the payoff for investments in research and development," said D. James Baker, NOAA administrator. "Thanks to Administration and congressional support, we have the systems in place to monitor the early signs of these major events."

The long-term climate outlook issued by NOAA today calls for warm and dry conditions in the Southwest during July, August and September, and these are forecast to continue through the fall and winter. This is of particular concern because the area encompassing Arizona, New Mexico, and much of Texas is already quite dry. The Gulf coast states to east of Texas, also currently quite dry, are forecast to have normal chances of precipitation in the summer months.

The outlooks are also for cool conditions in the northern Great Plains, and dry conditions in interior Washington and Oregon during the next three months. The dryness forecast for the Southwest is expected to also extend into the central Great Plains in the fall and later into the Southeast in the late fall and winter. As implied earlier, wet conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest in the fall and early winter with the same regions experiencing a colder than normal winter.

"La Nina will certainly bring us a different winter next year than we observed in 1998," added Kousky. "There will be a tendency for more variability in our daily and monthly weather patterns because the jet stream is expected to be situated over the central United Sates rather than over northern Mexico and the northern Gulf of Mexico as observed during last winter."

Nationally, spring (March - May) 1998 was the 47th wettest and the 24th warmest spring on record since detailed records began in 1895, according to the preliminary data from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C.

The 1961-1990 normal spring precipitation was 7.76 inches. The 1998 national averaged value for spring precipitation was 7.78 inches. The wettest spring on record occurred in 1973 with a national average precipitation of 10.14 inches. The driest spring on record, with a national average precipitation of 5.32 inches, occurred in 1925.

"Despite the near-normal national precipitation value for the spring season, areas of extremes did exist," said William Brown, meteorologist at the NCDC. "For example, spring 1998 was the seventh driest on record for the South region and the eighth wettest since 1895 for the West region. Spring 1998 was the third driest on record for Texas and the fifth driest such season for Louisiana."

To the opposite extreme, spring 1998 was the second wettest spring for Idaho, sixth wettest for Nevada and Virginia, seventh wettest for Rhode Island, eighth wettest for California, and tenth wettest for Connecticut and New Jersey.

The 1961-1990 normal spring temperature was 51.6 degrees F. The 1998 national averaged spring temperature was 52.4 degrees F. The warmest spring on record, with a national average temperature of 54.7 degrees F, occurred in 1910. The coolest spring on record occurred in 1917 with a national average temperature of 48.1 degrees F.

Regionally, spring 1998 was the fifth warmest spring since 1895 for the Northeast region and the sixth warmest for the East-North Central region. It was the 20th coolest spring on record for the West region. Spring 1998 was the warmest on record for New Hampshire, second warmest for Rhode Island, third warmest for Connecticut and New York, fourth warmest for Vermont and Wisconsin, fifth warmest for Michigan and Minnesota, sixth warmest for Delaware, New Jersey, and Ohio, seventh warmest for Maine and Massachusetts, eighth warmest for Pennsylvania, and 10th warmest for Maryland. It was the 14th coolest spring since 1895 for California and the 24th coolest such season on record for Arizona.

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center is the world's largest active archive of weather data. The preliminary temperature and precipitation rankings are available from the center by calling: 828-271-4800 or on the World Wide Web at: http:/www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/documentlibrary/cvb.html Historical precipitation and temperature ranking maps are also available on the Internet at: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/usa.html

NOAA works closely with the academic and science communities on climate- related research projects to increase the understanding of El Nino and improve forecasting techniques. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center monitors, analyzes and predicts climate events ranging from weeks to seasons for the nation. NOAA also operates the network of data buoys and satellites that provide vital information about the ocean waters, and initiates research projects to improve future climate forecasts. The long lead climate outlooks are available on the Internet at: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov

NOTE TO EDITORS: For further information on La Nina, please visit our Web site at: www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/lanina.html