Contact:  Barbara McGehan               FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
          Stephanie Kenitzer            1/8/98

Winter storms in the Pacific sometimes lead to snow in Chicago or Washington, D.C. Using hurricane-reconnaissance aircraft and sophisticated numerical computer models, a data-collection experiment designed to help scientists learn more about Pacific-driven storms and improve the forecasts for these events will begin on Jan. 16, 1998, the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said today.

The field experiment, a collaborative effort between NOAA, the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and the U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Wing, is called NORPEX (North Pacific Experiment) and is designed to improve the skill and reliability of weather forecasts across the country in the one to four day time scale for this winter season and beyond.

The National Weather Service (NWS) has an extensive network of weather balloons, sophisticated radars, advanced satellites, and surface observing systems across the United States. The Pacific Ocean, where many weather patterns form, is data sparse, by comparison. Given the possible impact of El Ni¤o on daily weather events, providing accurate, timely forecasts and storm warnings is of particular interest during the 1997-98 winter season.

"We believe that by taking additional observations in the Pacific, and adding this data to numerical weather models, we can improve the forecasts," said researcher Mel Shapiro, NORPEX project coordinator, from NOAA's Environmental Technology Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. Computer modeling is the foundation of all NWS weather and flood forecasts. Weather models solve a series of complex equations that simulate the present and future states of the atmosphere.

"The data collected over the Pacific Ocean will be invaluable for improving weather forecasts over the nation," said Steve Lord, director of the Environmental Modeling Branch, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, in Camp Springs, Md. "Today's weather over the Pacific often has a major influence on tomorrow's weather on the West Coast and weather in two to three days over the eastern United States." Lord says that these observations will be taken according to the latest theories as to where observations will do the most to improve weather forecasts over the United States.

The NORPEX team will also place special focus on better identification of West Coast storms in the 36-48-hour range. NORPEX data gathered will be shared with the CALJET project, a separate NOAA research initiative currently underway in California that seeks to improve forecasts in the 0-12 hour range along the California coast.

Data will be collected using the new NOAA Gulfstream IV (G-IV) jet, inaugurated last year to do hurricane research. The jet will be piloted by NOAA Corps commissioned officers and based in Honolulu, Hawaii. With a range of nearly 4,000 nautical miles, the G-IV's cruising altitude of 45,000 feet provides observational coverage at levels critical for defining weather systems in the upper atmosphere.

Scientists will take observations and measurements by deploying instrument packages, called dropwindsondes, over the Pacific to measure vertical profiles of wind, temperature and moisture in the atmosphere. In addition, the U.S. Air Force will be flying two WC-130s, out of Anchorage, Alaska, and Honolulu, also taking similar measurements. Special high-resolution satellite data will be collected in real-time which will then be incorporated into the weather models.

Weather forecasters from the U.S. Navy and from the National Weather Service in Washington, D.C. will be providing information on potentially harmful weather events to the research group. Shapiro says the researchers will assess new observational techniques, mixing and matching various observational tools to see which are the most efficient and helpful in forecasting weather in the one to five day range. "For the first time, computer models will identify the areas to target for observations. This data will then assist forecasters looking at specific weather events and, ultimately, help improve forecasts for the entire country," he said.

Following is a list of the principal scientists and institutions participating in NORPEX:

NOAA
Mel Shapiro, Environmental Technology Laboratory, Boulder, Colo.
Nicholas Bond, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, Wash.
Stephen Lord, Zoltan Toth - National Centers for Environ. Prediction, Camp Springs, Md.
Capt. George Player, Lt. Cmdr. Sean White, Aircraft Operations Center, Tampa, Fla.
U.S. Navy
Rolf Langland and Ron Gelaro - Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, Calif.
Fleet Numerical Meteorological and Oceanographic Prediction Center, Monterey, Calif.
U.S. Air Force
53rd Weather Wing, Buloxi, Miss.