Contact:  Stephanie Kenitzer            FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
                                        2/12/98

The strong El Nino conditions that were first forecast in May 1997 are expected to continue through the spring and early summer of 1998 with continued increased rainfall across California and the southeastern United States, and continued milder-than-normal conditions over much of central North America, according to the latest El Nino advisory released today by the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"Last June, we predicted correctly that because of El Nino, the United States would experience abnormal weather patterns during the fall and winter," said Commerce Secretary Daley. "Providing this type of accurate weather information six months in advance has never been done before and has enabled our communities and businesses to better prepare and protect themselves."

Secretary Daley announced that the next two months will follow a similar pattern of the last two months of abnormal weather. "The severe weather in California and the Southeast will unfortunately continue. And much of the south will see increased rainfall and cooler temperatures." Director of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center Ants Leetmaa added, "The sea surface temperatures are still well above normal throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean and are expected to remain that way into April and May."

El Nino is an abnormal warming of the ocean temperatures across the eastern tropical Pacific that brings important consequences for weather around the globe. The warm tropical ocean waters first appeared in March 1997 and quickly strengthened to become one of the strongest El Nino events on record. Observations from data buoys and satellites indicate that waters in the eastern Pacific have averaged at least 8 degrees Fahrenheit above normal since June 1997.

NOAA forecast models indicate that the warm waters will begin to return to normal temperatures throughout the summer and into early fall. The likelihood of a La Nina, the period when the tropical Pacific is much colder than normal, developing this year is low. The impacts of a cold event on the United States are nearly opposite to those observed during El Nino.

"The 1982-83 El Nino led to more than $10 billion in weather-related damages worldwide -- and this El Nino may be just as strong," said Secretary Daley. "But we believe our improved forecasting ability can help communities and businesses save lives, and property in the hundreds of millions of dollars."

The 1997/98 El Nino has been affecting weather patterns in the United States and the globe for much of the winter. A number of regions around the country have experienced record rainfall and temperatures.

The impacts of El Nino are pushing many California communities to observe record precipitation amounts. To date, most of northern and central California have already reached their annual seasonal totals. Many locations are within an inch or two of reaching their annual seasonal totals by the end of February. Southern California has already set several records for high surf, strong winds and precipitation.

In other areas of the country, new records are also being set. For example, for the period of November through January, temperatures in Chicago; Minneapolis; Bismarck, N.D.; and Buffalo, N.Y., have been between 2 to 4 degrees F warmer than normal. Bismarck, N.D., set a new record in December 1997, when the average temperature was 28.5 F. The previous record was 26.8 F set in 1939, and the average normal temperature for December is 15.3 F.

Cities along the southern United States, including Tampa, Fla.; New Orleans; and Charleston, S.C., have observed record rainfall this fall and winter. Tampa, Fla., observed 19.58 inches from November through January. The record, set in 1926, was 12.93 inches over this three-month period. For the month of January only, Baton Rouge, La., set a new rainfall record of 13.19 inches. The previous record was 12.51 set in 1993; the average rainfall during January is 5.13 inches.

In comparison, Glasgow, Mont., and Dickinson, N.D., have experienced significantly less precipitation compared to normal and certainly compared to the last year's record-setting snowfall. Dickinson only had .10 inches of precipitation between December 1997 and January 1998. The previous record for the same period was .15 inches, set in 1987; the average precipitation during these months is .83 inches.

The precipitation and temperature observations track closely with forecasts issued by NOAA in June 1997. Based on those forecasts, hundreds of federal, state and local agencies, as well as private groups, were able to make preparations to mitigate some of the damaging impacts.

"Though this El Nino event has been devastating to parts of the country, significant improvements in forecasting technology enabled NOAA to issue forecasts far enough in advance to allow communities to prepare for it," said D. James Baker, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere. "Because the El Nino signal is such a strong part of our climate system, we've seen unprecedented skill in the accuracy of the winter temperature and precipitation forecasts. This event has also allowed researchers to gain better scientific understanding for improvement of future forecasting methods."

"We are pleased that the forecasts we issued last summer, while not perfect, were accurate and timely," added Leetmaa. "One of our challenges is to build confidence among our users that we can predict climate variability and the impact of large-scale climate events on weather patterns. This El Nino has helped establish interagency, federal and state partnerships to make practical use of climate forecasts."

El Nino episodes usually occur approximately every two to seven years. Recent El Nino events occurred in 1976-1977, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, 1991-1993 and 1994-1995.

NOAA works closely with the academic and science community on climate-related research projects to increase the understanding of El Nino and improve forecasting techniques. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center monitors, analyzes and predicts climate events ranging from weeks to seasons for the nation. NOAA also operates the network of data buoys and satellites that provide vital information about the ocean waters, and initiates research projects to improve future climate forecasts.

Current forecasts, graphics and observations are available on the Internet at http://www.elnino.noaa.gov