Contact:  Stephanie Kenitzer            FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
          Les Dorr                      4/16/98
          Federal Aviation Administration

Predicting the weather just got a little easier and flying just got a little safer. A new weather forecast model will improve the accuracy and timeliness of short-range weather forecasts, particularly for the aviation community.

The model was initiated on April 7 at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction in Camp Springs, Md., part of the Commerce Department's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

"The model will help meteorologists forecast aviation hazards, such as clear air turbulence, icing, clouds and winds," says Stan Benjamin, project manager for the development of the model at NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. "This model will also help forecasters with short-term significant weather events such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and snow and ice storms."

The model, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC-2), was developed at NOAA's Forecast Systems Laboratory, and funded by NOAA and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation Weather Research Program. It combines a number of features that make it very useful to forecasters hourly updates, more detail than the previous version, and more precise and accurate information. It was implemented in coordination with the National Weather Service.

Among the many users of the model are NOAA's Aviation Weather Center in Kansas City, Mo., NOAA's Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla., National Weather Service forecast offices, FAA operations, commercial airlines, and any users that have a need for immediate information on the state of the weather in the next few hours.

In contrast to other forecast models, the RUC-2 uses more frequent data assimilation to make forecasts and analyses and makes them available at more frequent intervals in real time. The model covers the continental United States and is run on a 40 km grid. The RUC-2 is a refined version of the current RUC model.

The new RUC-2 forecasts will reach airline meteorology offices, immediately enabling airlines to use the model grids for flight planning to improve safety and help them cut costs on fuel.

"Whether you're limited to the traditional flight paths or are participating in the new free flight concept, if you have the right wind information and a forecast of weather hazards, you can estimate the fuel costs and be much more efficient," says Tom Schlatter, chief of FSL's Forecast Research Division where the RUC-2 was developed.

"The RUC-2 is an important advance in aviation weather modeling that shows we can put the results of research into operations and benefit all who fly. It will provide more accurate and timely forecasts of winds and weather, and that means more efficient flight planning and increased flight safety," said Ken Leonard, team leader of the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program.

A field test, conducted from November 1997 to January 1998 among a cross section of forecasters around the country, showed that the model had more skills than the existing product and will be a powerful new tool in operational forecasting.

"The new model will provide meteorologists with a more accurate picture of the atmosphere and improve the accuracy and timeliness of short-range forecasts of factors that affect the safety of air travel," said James Henderson, deputy director of NOAA's Aviation Weather Center.

"The model will be a very valuable asset for predicting hazardous weather," said Senior Development Meteorologist Phillip Bothwell from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Okla.

The RUC-2 model was designed to provide accurate numerical forecast guidance for those needing current storm information during the next six to 12 hours. It runs hourly, the highest frequency of any forecast model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), assimilating the most recent observations taken from commercial aircraft, radar and satellite, and at the surface to provide high frequency updates of current conditions and short-range forecasts.

According to Benjamin, there has been a huge increase in the number of high frequency observations taken during the past 10 years, making it possible to update the RUC model more often. "NOAA is now collecting data from commercial aircraft as they cross the United States. The primary contributors have been Delta, Northwest and United Airlines and the United Parcel Service. Other carriers are now joining. RUC-2 is a product of a strong partnership between government and industry, resulting in improved forecasts for aviation."

Computer modeling is the foundation of all NWS weather, flood and climate forecasts. Throughout the day data is collected by a vast array of observing systems such as the network of weather balloons, sensors on airplanes, Doppler weather radars, automated surface observing systems, and advanced satellites. The data is processed through powerful computer models at NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center in Camp Spring, Md. The computers generate predictions for forecasters, allowing them to anticipate weather conditions from two hours to two weeks in advance.

Funding for this project is being provided by the FAA's Aviation Weather Research Program and NOAA. The RUC-2 model is being jointly implemented by NOAA's NCEP and FSL.

For more information, consult the RUC website at: http://maps.fsl.noaa.gov