NOAA 97-R224
Contact: Stephanie Kenitzer FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
5/15/97
The evolution of the atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the tropical Pacific during the past few months are early indications of warm episode (El Niño) conditions, according to a special El Niño/Southern Oscillation Diagnostic Advisory issued by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center.
Several of the forecast models for El Niño supported by NOAA, including the ones at the Climate Prediction Center, predicted the onset of a warm event already late in 1996. The models indicate continued warming through 1997.
El Niño is an abnormal state of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather around the globe. Among these consequences are increased rainfall across the southern tier of the United States and in Peru, sometimes resulting in destructive flooding and drought in northeast Brazil, southeastern Africa, and in the west Pacific. Better predictions of extreme climate episodes like floods and droughts could save the United States billions of dollars in damage costs.
El Niño; (warm episodes) usually occur approximately every two to seven years. Recent El Niño events occurred in 1976-1977, 1982-1983, 1986-1987, 1991-1993 and 1994-1995. The first half of the 1990s is unusual in that four out of five years featured warm episode conditions in the tropical Pacific. However, a cold episode occurred in 1995/96 and its effects lingered until late 1996.
Observations of conditions in the tropical Pacific are considered essential for the prediction of short term (a few months to one year) climate variations. To provide necessary data, NOAA operates a network of buoys that measure temperature, currents and winds in the equatorial band. These buoys transmit data that are available to researchers and forecasters around the world in real time.
Predicting the onset of a warm or cold phase is critical in helping water, energy and transportation managers, and farmers plan for, avoid or mitigate potential losses. Advances in improved climate predictions will also result in significantly enhanced economic opportunities, particularly for the national agriculture, fishing, forestry and energy sectors, as well as social benefits.
The ENSO advisory is available on the Climate Prediction Center's homepage at: http://nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
Climate forecasts for the next three seasons are available at: http://nic.fb4.gov:80:8000/research/climate.html
NOAA is the lead agency responsible for monitoring, analyzing and predicting the climate for time scales ranging from weeks to seasons.