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NISTIR
6917 Executive SummaryCase studies of the
first completed ATP projects have shown considerable variation in commercialization
patterns of ATP-funded technologies. These variations were apparent in
the timing of initial revenues, commercialization in more mature and multiple
applications, and diffusion of ATP technologies relative to the period
of ATP funding of R&D. This study is an effort to address the differences
in commercialization patterns for different technologies in a systematic
way. It seeks answers to the following questions:
An understanding of
technology differences as they affect commercialization is critical to
proper evaluation of proposals for ATP project funding and to assessment
of performance of individual projects as they unfold. By examining the
different commercialization patterns for different technologies within
a broader innovation life-cycle framework, we hope to provide a greater
understanding of the broader technological and industry environments underlying
these patterns. This study demonstrates that in some highly innovative
technology areas, important technology differences cause commercialization
and impact to happen relatively quickly; however, other technologies require
much more time. ATPs Business
Reporting System (BRS) provides a comprehensive picture of business
planning and progress towards commercialization of projects funded since
1993. Over the course of ATP funding, award participants lay out business
plans and strategies for different commercial applications of their ATP-funded
technologies, provide an expected commercialization timeline,
and describe early commercialization activity. Additional surveys track
projects into the post-ATP period. Although most projects are still young
relative to their complete timeline for commercialization and economic
impact, they are beginning to generate a body of information about actual
commercialization patterns that affords a preliminary comparison of actual
commercialization progress with earlier expectations. This study focuses on business reports from 558 participants in 299 ATP projects funded from 1993 to 1998 that indicated business expectations and strategies for nearly 1,200 commercial applications of their ATP-funded technologies. The study observed the following commercialization patterns: 1. Across all technologies
and commercial applications, revenues are expected:
2. Technology affects
timing:
3. Expectations
about when commercialization and revenues will occur tend to mirror the
expected market windows of opportunity. 4. Preliminary
assessment of actual commercialization activity compared with expectations
shows:
An innovation life-cycle
model provides the framework for examining technology differences for
such characteristics as firm size, project structure, commercialization
strategy, technological advantage, and availability of capital that contribute
to differences in commercialization patterns. Many economists have published
evolutionary models. Our adaptation follows most closely J. M. Utterback,
Mastering the Dynamics of Innovation: How Companies Can Seize Opportunities
in the Face of Technological Change (1994) and extensions to collaborative
R&D in N. S. Vonortas, Cooperation in Research and Development
(1997). The following is a
summary of findings:
Both expected and actual commercialization patterns observed in ATP projects appear consistent with the innovation life-cycle framework. This study suggests that this framework may prove useful in the future for assessing the credibility of business plans in ATP project proposals from different technology areas, and for assessing the economic performance of funded projects. Further work and additional data for the post-ATP period are needed to examine actual commercialization patterns over the long run. Return to Table of Contents or go to I. Introduction Date created: March
4, 2003 |
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