Georges (pronounced Zhorzh) was the second deadliest and second strongest
hurricane within the Atlantic basin during the 1998 season. Its 17 day journey resulted
in seven landfalls, extending from the northeastern Caribbean to the coast of
Mississippi, and 602 fatalities -- mainly in the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
a. Synoptic History
Georges originated from a tropical wave,
observed by satellite and upper-air data, which crossed the west coast of Africa late on 13 September.
Rawinsonde data from Dakar, Senegal showed an attendant 35 to 45 knot easterly jet between 550 and
650 millibars (mb). On the 14th, visible satellite imagery depicted a large, well-defined
cloud system in association with the wave and meteorologists at the Tropical Prediction
Center/National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch
(TAFB), the Satellite Analysis Branch
(SAB) of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service, and the
Air Force Weather Agency (AFGWC)
began satellite-based Dvorak intensity classifications.
By early on the 15th, ship reports indicated the presence of a closed surface circulation
in this system and it is estimated that a tropical depression
formed at 1200 UTC, centered about 300 n mi south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the far
eastern Atlantic, as shown in the post-storm "best-track"
- see Table 1 and Figure 1 (39K GIF).
During the next 24 hours the tropical depression continued to become better organized as banding
features developed and deep convection formed over the center. The system became a
tropical storm at 1200 UTC on 16 September while centered
about 620 n mi west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Georges moved on a persistent
west-northwest course for the next ten days, a classic Cape Verde-type track, in response to a
mid- to upper-level tropospheric ridge which strengthened with height.
Georges continued to gradually strengthen over the next several days, reaching
hurricane intensity around 1800 UTC on 17 September when
a banding-type eye feature became evident in satellite imagery.
By the 19th, an upper-level anticyclone was well-established over Georges and satellite
pictures suggested that the hurricane was beginning to strengthen rapidly, as indicated by the
cooling cloud tops, increased symmetry of the deep convection, and the warming and contracting of
the well-defined eye.
By early afternoon on the 19th, the first U.S. Air Force Reserve (USAFR)
reconnaissance aircraft reached the hurricane and measured maximum flight-level winds of
146 knots and a minimum central pressure of 938 mb - confirming the
intensification trend noted in satellite imagery. Georges' winds were increased to 125
knots at 1800 UTC on the 19th making it a category four hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.
Several Global Positioning System (GPS) dropwinsondes were deployed within
the eye-wall region of the hurricane during these reconnaissance missions.
Near-surface (below 200 feet) wind estimates from these drops indicate maximum winds from
134 knots to 150 knots. On this basis, Georges is estimated to have reached a
peak intensity of 135 knots at 0600 UTC on the 20th
while located about 285 n mi east of Guadeloupe in the Lesser Antilles. Although GPS Dropwinsondes
data is still being evaluated by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) Hurricane Research Division, preliminary research
suggests that the observed near-surface winds approximate one-minute values. For additional information
on the GPS Dropwindsondes, please see Franklin (1997) and Franklin et. al. (1997).
Shortly after 0600 UTC 20 September, the hurricane began a marked
weakening trend with the eye becoming indiscernible in satellite pictures, or to aerial
reconnaissance by that afternoon. Examination of water vapor satellite imagery and
satellite-derived wind analyses from the Cooperative Institute
for Meteorological Satellite Studies at the University of Wisconsin
suggest that one possible factor responsible for the weakening could have been upper-level northerly
vertical wind shear induced by an upper-level anticyclone located over the eastern Caribbean. By
the evening of the 20th, the central pressure had risen 26 mb and Georges weakened.
It then made the first two of its seven landfalls in the Lesser Antilles, first in Antigua
then in St. Kitts and Nevis, early on the 21st with maximum sustained surface winds
of 100 knots.
By mid-morning of the 21st an upper-level low over Cuba, denoted in water
vapor imagery, was moving westward away from Georges thereby reducing the
possibility of Georges moving to the northwest, away from Puerto Rico. Later in the
afternoon, the shear appeared to diminish and the outflow aloft improved but Georges
never fully recovered due in part to the circulation's interaction with Puerto Rico.
Georges made landfall in southeast Puerto Rico with sustained surface winds of 100
knots on the evening of the 21st. The hurricane moved inland over Puerto Rico and
weakened slightly and then moved into the Mona Passage early on the 22nd. Georges
began to re-intensify while over the Mona Passage and made landfall later that
morning in the Dominican Republic, about 75 n mi east of Santo Domingo with
estimated sustained surface winds of 105 knots.
During the next 21 hours Georges weakened as it moved slowly across the
mountainous terrain of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, where it produced copious
rains resulting in deadly flash floods and mud slides. The system emerged into the
Windward Passage on the morning of the 23rd with 65 knot
maximum winds. Georges changed little before making landfall in eastern Cuba later that afternoon,
about 25 n mi east of Guantanamo Bay. The system retained hurricane status while
moving slowly west-northwestward across the northern coast of Cuba, exiting the
northern coast by late afternoon on the 24th. Satellite imagery showed that the system
retained a fairly impressive upper-level outflow pattern during its crossing of both
Hispaniola and Cuba.
Once back over water, the hurricane began to re-intensify. Satellite pictures
showed that a band of deep convection developed east of the center early on the 25th
which expanded throughout the morning. Georges made landfall during mid-morning
of the 25th in Key West, Florida with a minimum central pressure of 981 mb and
maximum winds of 90 knots. After moving away from Key West, Georges turned
more to the northwest, then north-northwest, and gradually slowed down on the 26th
and 27th. This occurred in response to the mid-tropospheric anticyclone north of the
hurricane shifting eastward into the southeastern United States. The hurricane made
landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi on the morning of the 28th with estimated maximum
sustained one-minute winds of 90 knots and a minimum central pressure
of 964 mb. After landfall, the system meandered around southern Mississippi and was
downgraded to a tropical storm on the afternoon of the 28th.
Georges became quasi-stationary for the next 6 to 12 hours moving in a
cyclonic loop over southern Mississippi. The tropical storm began moving in a
generally northeast to east direction early on the 29th and was downgraded to a
tropical depression by mid-morning while located about 30 n mi north-northeast of
Mobile, Alabama. Georges continued to move eastward at 5 to 10 knots on the 29th
and 30th. By early morning of 1 October, the system dissipated near the northeast
Florida/southeast Georgia coast, although a very weak remnant low did emerge over
the western Atlantic during the day. However, the remnant circulation merged with
a frontal zone by late on the 1st.
b. Meteorological Statistics
The best-track intensities in Table 1
were obtained from the data in Figures 2 (26K GIF)
and 3 (30K GIF) which depict the curves of minimum
central sea-level pressure and maximum sustained one-minute average "surface"
(10 meters above ground level) wind speed, respectively, as a function of time. These figures
also contain data upon which the curves are based: USAFR and NOAA aircraft reconnaissance data,
satellite-based Dvorak-technique intensity estimates from
TAFB, SAB,
and AFGWC, and estimates
from synoptic data analyses after landfall.
1. Wind and Pressure Data
The bulk of the aerial reconnaissance flights into Georges were done by the
USAFR "Hurricane Hunters".
The
Hurricane Hunters flew 17 missions,
and made 81 center fixes while NOAA aircraft
performed six missions contributing 24 center fixes. The highest wind speed reported was
152 knots (at 700 mb) at 0112 UTC 20 September by the
NOAA aircraft. The lowest central
pressure reported was 937 mb at 0613 UTC 20 September by the
Hurricane Hunters with a corresponding maximum
flight-level wind of 144 knots. During this period, subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB and
AFGWC were T6.5
(127 knots/935 mb) and objective-based Dvorak estimates ranged
between T6.5 and T7.0 (140 knots/921 mb), all in
good agreement with GPS dropwindsonde pressure and wind estimates.
George's track brought it into range of several National Weather Service
Doppler radars (WSR-88D - Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler) specifically;
San Juan, Puerto Rico,
Key West, FL,
New Orleans, LA, and
Mobile, AL. The WSR-88D
in San Juan, Puerto Rico measured winds near 100 knots
aloft at 0205 UTC 22 September while the center was located over central Puerto Rico. Dr. Joshua
Wurman of the University of Oklahoma was operating his dual doppler radar
(Doppler-on-Wheels DOW) during Georges' landfall in Biloxi,
Mississippi. Around 0855 UTC 28 September, the radar showed maximum wind near
107 knots, which represents a 2 to 5 second gust.
For further information on the DOW radar project,
please refer to Wurman (1998).
Several land-based locations within the Caribbean recorded sustained
hurricane-force winds during Georges passage including Hamilton Airport and
VITEMA/Herman Hill in St. Croix, Cyril E. King Airport in St. Thomas, and all the
official reporting sites in Puerto Rico. The highest sustained wind and gust reported
at an official site was 78 knots and 93 knots, respectively,
at Roosevelt Roads Naval Station (TJNR) at 2302 UTC 21 September. These, as well as
other selected surface observations for Georges, are listed in
Table 2. The highest unofficial wind report received in the
Caribbean was a wind gust of 153 knots (at an elevation of about 700
feet) from the island of Saba of the Netherlands Antilles at 1044 UTC 21 September.
The corresponding minimum pressure recorded at the site was 971.9 mb.
As is often the case in the Caribbean, many unofficial weather reports are
relayed to the NHC via amateur radio operators. These observations are invaluable
in helping to determine conditions in locations with no official weather reporting
equipment. Table 3 lists selected amateur radio surface weather
reports for Georges. One of the most important observations reported was in Fajardo,
Puerto Rico where the Civil Defense office measured a sustained wind of
96 knots with gusts to 113 knots at 2130 UTC 21 September.
Operationally, this report was the basis of making Georges a category 3 hurricane at
andfall in Puerto Rico.
The USAFR reconnaissance reported a maximum flight-level wind of
117 knots and a minimum central pressure of 962 mb near
the time of landfall in southeast Dominican Republic.
Surface reports received from the Instituto de Meteorologica in Cuba
indicate that the maximum 1-minute surface wind observed was 71 knots
at Punta Lucrecia, Holguin while the highest gust of 80 knots was
measured at Sagua La Grande, Villa Clara. The minimum central pressure recorded over Cuba was
988 mb in Cayo Coco. All of these reports occurred as Georges moved out of Cuba and into the
Florida Straits where it began to restrengthen.
The maximum sustained 2-minute wind recorded at Key West, FL was
48 knots at 1353 UTC 25 September with the peak gust of
76 knots; the minimum central pressure reported was 982.5 mb.
It should be noted that due to equipment/power failure around 1500 UTC a higher wind
and a lower pressure value likely occurred. The highest gust recorded in the Florida
Keys was 96 knots at the Monroe County Emergency Operations
Center in Marathon. The Sombrero Key C-MAN buoy (SMKF1) recorded a maximum sustained
wind of 82 knots with a peak gust to 92 knots at 1500
UTC 25 September. Moreover, this buoy recorded hurricane-force winds for a three
hour period (1300 - 1600 UTC). This, along with other
National Data Buoy Center
(NDBC) observations, can be found in Table 4.
Georges made its final landfall near Biloxi, Mississippi around 1130 UTC on 28
September with maximum sustained surface winds of 90 knots
and a minimum central pressure of 964 mb. The USAFR aircraft reported a 960 mb pressure
at 0503 UTC. The lowest pressure measured by a land station was 964.9 mb at 1055 UTC 28
September at Keesler Air Force Base (KBIX) in Biloxi, MS; Harrison County Civil
Defense in Gulfport, MS recorded 967.2 mb at 1015 UTC. The NOAA ship Oregon II
measured a minimum central pressure of 970 mb at 0830 UTC 28 September while
in port in Pascagoula, MS. On the 28th, Keesler Air Force Base (KBIX) in Biloxi, MS
reported sustained hurricane-force winds (65 knots) at 0855 UTC.
At 0755 UTC, KBIX reported wind gusts of 109 knots,
and 149 knots at 0855 UTC 28 September. The latter value
is considered to be invalid based on the following: 1) DOW dual doppler maximum wind
measurements made at the same time at KBIX were near 107 knots
(considered a 2-5 second gust); 2) the anemometer at KBIX is a hot-wire
anemometer which has been shown to be prone to major errors in heavy rain, e.g.,
the erroneous 205 knot wind gust in Typhoon Paka (Hagemeyer, 1998);
3) USAFR dropwindsonde data from the same time period measured a peak wind of
101 knots at 920 mb. An Texas Instrument WR25 anemometer,
operated by Mississippi Power and Light one mile north of the beach in Biloxi,
measured a wind gust of 102 knots.
Reconnaissance data from the USAFR aircraft suggest that the boundary layer
and inner core of the Georges never fully recovered from its passage across Hispaniola and Cuba.
Despite an apparently healthy cloud and outflow pattern and a small, but gradual, drop in the
minimum central pressure of 13 mb (975-962 mb) in a 36-hour period from early on the 26th
to the evening of the 27th, the eye was never able to become re-established.
Most of the vortex messages from the 26th through the 28th reported a
partially-formed eyewall - mostly open to the west or
southwest. Also, eyewall GPS dropwinsonde data near landfall in Mississippi suggest
that the winds at the surface were 20-30% below those at flight level (10,000 feet).
This is in stark contrast to eyewall samples taken when Georges was near peak
intensity just east of the Leeward Islands where the surface winds, on average, were
equal to or greater than those at 10,000 feet.
Table 4 contains all known ship observations which reported
winds of tropical storm-force (34 knots) or higher associated with Georges.
The highest wind observation was 44 knots from Ship PJKP at 1500 UTC
29 September in the Gulf of Mexico. The highest significant wave height reported by a ship was 13 feet
(WFLG at 0900 UTC 22 September and C6JN at 1800 UTC 29 September) while the highest value recorded at a
NDBC buoy was near 36 feet at 42040 in the Gulf of Mexico.
2. Storm Surge Data
The storm surge was estimated
to be near 10 feet in Fajardo, Puerto Rico while values of 4 to 6 feet were typical
in the Florida Keys. Preliminary storm surge estimates along the central and east
Gulf Coast range from 5 to 9 feet in Louisiana and Mississippi (maximum of 8.9 feet
at Point A La Hache, LA and Point Cadet, Biloxi, MS) to 5 to 12 feet in Alabama
(5 to 10 feet in Mobile County and 7 to 12 feet in Baldwin
County). The two highest values received from Alabama are 9.3 feet which occurred
in west Mobile Bay, and 11.9 feet in Fort Morgan. In the Florida Panhandle, the storm
surge in Escambia, Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa Counties was estimated to be 5 to 10
feet. Of course breaking waves superimposed on the storm surge will result in even
higher water marks. At the time of this writing, official United States Corps of
Engineers/Geological Survey (USCE/USGS) storm surge site survey values have not
been received.
3. Rainfall Data
Georges was a substantial rain-producer in portions of the Caribbean and the
central/eastern Gulf of Mexico coast. In the U.S. Virgin islands, rainfall totals were
generally between 3 and 8 inches. In Puerto Rico, the maximum official two-day
USGS rain gage measurement was 24.62 IN in Lago El Guineo near Villalba while the
maximum Cooperative Observer (CO-OP) two-day total reported was 28.36 inches in Jayuya.
Figure 4 (43K GIF) shows the USGS rainfall analysis
for Puerto Rico in 5-inch isohyets - of particular interest is the large swath of 10-15 inch values.
No surface-based rainfall estimates are available from the Dominican Republic
or Haiti, two of the hardest-hit countries. Satellite-derived rainfall estimates suggest
that as much as 39 inches of rain may have fallen over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti over a 24-hour period ending around 1200 UTC on the 23rd. Over
Cuba, the Instituto de Meteorologica reported a maximum storm total of 24.41 inches
in Limonar.
Rainfall in the Florida Keys was considerably less than what was seen over
Cuba or Hispaniola, with Key West recording 8.38 inches. In contrast, storm totals
along the Gulf Coast were noticeably higher owing to the hurricane's marked
deceleration. The maximum rainfall total from an official observation site was 24.24
inches at Eglin AFB (KVPS) in the Florida Panhandle while the highest storm total was
29.66 inches from a CO-OP in Bay Minette, AL. Rainfall totals generally ranged from
10 to 20 inches over most of southern Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida
Panhandle - see Figure 5 (52K GIF). In response
to the heavy rains, widespread river flooding occurred in southern Mississippi from 30 September through 2 October flooding
homes and forcing evacuations. The Tchoutacabouffa River at D'Iberbville, MS set
a record crest of 19 feet at 0200 UTC 30 September.
4. Tornadoes
Most of the reported tornado activity associated with Georges occurred in
Florida and Alabama with a total of 28 tornadoes estimated to have touched down,
mostly in northwest Florida. No deaths were directly attributible to these tornadoes.
Two tornadoes were also reported in Puerto Rico.
c. Casualty and Damage Statistics
Table 5 lists the deaths and insured damage estimates
associated with Georges. The 602* direct deaths attributed to Georges make it
the 19th deadliest tropical cyclone in the Atlantic basin this century
(Rappaport and Partagas, 1995). As shown in Table 6,
most of the deaths associated with Georges occurred in the Dominican
Republic and Haiti, due mainly to flash flooding and subsequent mud slides in high
terrain regions. The lone direct death in the United States, which was freshwater
flood-related, occurred in Mobile, Alabama.
* - This number represents the best estimate received
to-date and is subject to revision at a later date. Totals which appear in
Table 5 from the Dominican Republic and Haiti are government-based
estimates as reported in media accounts.
Insured property damage estimates supplied by the Property Claims Services
Division of the American Insurance Services Group estimates that Georges caused
a total of $2.955 billion in damage in the United States including Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands (see Table 5 for individual state
totals). These estimates exclude storm surge damage. To determine the total
estimated damage, a ratio of 2:1 is applied to the insured property damage; this is
based on comparisons done in historical hurricanes. Thus, the total estimated
damage from Georges is $5.9 billion.
In Puerto Rico, there was considerable damage to homes throughout the island.
A total of 72,605 homes were damaged, of which 28,005 are estimated to have been
completely destroyed. During the hurricane, over 26,000 people were in shelters. In
the Dominican Republic upwards of 185,000 were left homeless by Georges and
100,000 remained in shelters through mid-October as electricity and water
service remain out in most of the country. Across Haiti, government officials
stated that 167,332 had been left homeless by the hurricane.
The agricultural industry in Puerto Rico was hit hard by Georges with estimates
of 95% of the plantain and banana crop destroyed along with 75% of the coffee crop.
Despite Georges' weakened state when it moved across Cuba, it had a
substantial impact. A total of 60, 475 homes were damaged of which 3,481 were
completely destroyed. As was the case in Puerto Rico, the agricultural sector was
hard hit with major losses at banana plantations in eastern Cuba.
The damage to dwellings in the United States was not as extensive as that
experienced across the Caribbean. In the Florida Keys 1536 homes were damaged
of which 173 were completely destroyed, many of which were mobile homes. Some
roof and structural damage was also reported along the coast of Mississippi.
In the first 60 days or so after Georges made its final landfall in Mississippi,
the American Red Cross spent $104 million on relief services in the United States Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico, Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, the Florida Keys and the Florida
Panhandle. This makes it the most expensive disaster aid effort in the organization's
117-year history.
d. Forecast and Warning Critique
Overall, the track forecasts for Georges were generally good. The low average
errors of CLIPER show that the hurricane followed a climatologically-favored path.
The average track model and official forecast errors for Georges are listed in
Table 6. The average official forecast errors are well below the most
recent 10-year average. These values represent a 47% to 60% improvement over the 10-year
official averages: 60% at 12 hr, 56% at 24 hr, 56% at 36 hr, 53% at 48 hr, and 47% at 72 hr.
It should be noted that the slow motion of Georges over the north central Gulf of
Mexico contributed to the low errors.
Not surprisingly, most of the track model guidance did quite well with Georges.
In fact, with the exception of BAMS and a few periods of the AVNI, AVNO and A98E,
the average errors of all the other track models were below the 10-year official
averages. This includes the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKM/UKMI) and
the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (EMX) models.
Moreover, LBAR had slightly smaller average errors that the official forecast from 12
to 36 hr (although the EMX 48 hr error was 84 n mi the sample size is too small to
make any meaningful conclusions). It should be mentioned, however, that although
the GFDL track errors were well below the 10-year
official forecast errors, it had a distinct left-bias over the Gulf of Mexico,
insisting on turning Georges westward into central and southwest Louisiana.
While the average official track errors are exemplary, the average intensity
errors are unimpressive. The mean absolute errors, and associated biases, for the
official forecast, SHIPS, the GFDL and GFDI, and SHIFOR are listed in
Table 7. The official mean intensity forecast errors are within
10% of the most recent 10-year official average with the exception of 72 hr (16%). SHIPS and the GFDI
are in fairly good agreement with the official forecast errors while the GFDL is considerably higher
at 12 and 24 hr. The official NHC forecast shows a positive bias (i.e. the intensity was over-forecast)
for all periods as opposed to the negative bias of the 10-year official average. SHIPS also shows a
positive bias for all but the 12 hr period, owing to the absence of land recognition in the model, while
both the GFDI and GFDL has a distinct negative bias throughout, with that of the GFDL
considerably larger. Of more interest are the biases at specific times.
Examination of the intensity forecast history of Georges shows several
interesting trends. The first five official forecasts after the system attained tropical
storm strength under-forecast the intensity an average of 18 knots between 12 to 48
hr and 44 knots at 72 hr. While SHIPS' intensity errors were comparable to the official
forecast, the GFDL faired worse with 29 knots between
12 and 48 hr and 55 knots at 72 hr. These forecasts represent the period when Georges
went through its rapid intensification phase.
The intensity forecasts from 1800 UTC 19 September to 0600 UTC on
20th show a significant positive bias. This is when Georges went through a
marked weakening trend. During this period, both the official NHC forecast and SHIPS
over-forecast the intensity an average of about 21 knots between 12 and 48 hr; at 72 hr
the errors were 43 knots and 36 knots, respectively. The GFDL
showed lower errors for this period with a mostly negative bias. Several of the 12 hr
forecasts under-forecast the intensity by 50 knots. These data highlight our limited skill
level in forecasting rapid, abrupt changes in intensity.
Table 8 lists the various watches and warnings issued
in association with Georges. Since Georges was well-forecast, the lead times on the
hurricane warnings were more than sufficient to
allow for the completion of protective actions. A
total of nearly 897,000 residents evacuated portions of south and west central Florida
including about 100,000 people in Dade County, and 35,000 in the Florida Keys in
response to the mandatory evacuation order issued by the Monroe County Emergency
Management.
References:
Franklin, J.L. 1997: Status of GPS dropwindsondes. Minutes, 51st Interdepartmental
Hurricane Conference, Miami, FL.
Franklin, J.L., H.L. Cole, T.F. Hock, D.K. Lauritsen, K.D. Norris, and E.F. Chamberlain,
1997: GPS dropwindsondes and the NOAA G-IV aircraft: New opportunities for
forecasting and research. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical
Meteorology, Ft. Collins, CO, American Meteorological Society, 135-136.
Hagemeyer, R.H., 1998: Super Typhoon Paka December 2 thru 21, 1997. DOC/NOAA
Service Assessment, National Weather Service, Honolulu, Hawaii, 28 pp.
Rappaport, E.N. and J. Fernandez-Partagas, 1995: The deadilest Atlantic Tropical
cyclones, 1492-1994, NOAA, Technical Memorandum NWS-NHC-47, 41 pp.
Wurman, J. and J.Winslow, 1998: Intense Sub-kilometer-scale boundary layer rolls
observed in Hurricane Fran, Science, V.280, p555-7.
Acknowledgments:
The author is indebted to the NWS Forecast Offices in
San Juan, Puerto Rico, Florida
(Miami,
Melbourne,
Tampa, and
Tallahassee), Alabama
(Mobile), and Louisiana
(New Orleans/Baton Rouge)
for their Post-Storm reports and related data. Data provided
by the Instituto de Meteorologica in Cuba is gratefully appreciated. Damage data was
kindly provided by the Property Claims Services Division of the American Insurance
Services Group. Steve Baig produced the best track maps. Rick Ullom,
SERFC Atlanta, Georgia, provided the
rainfall figure for the Gulfcoast region; Shawn Bennett, SOO
NWS San Juan, Puerto Rico,
provided the rainfall figure for Puerto Rico. The author wishes to thank
Lixion Avila,
Jack Beven, Jerry Jarrell,
Miles Lawrence, Max Mayfield,
Richard Pasch, and Ed Rappaport for
reviewing this document and making numerous suggestions which helped improve
the report.
Table 8. Watch and warning summary, Hurricane Georges, September 1998.
Date/time
(UTC) | Action | Location |
| 18/2100 | Hurricane Watch Issued |
St. Lucia to Anguilla including Saba and St. Maarten. |
| 19/1500 | Hurricane Watch Extended North/East |
St. Lucia northward and then northwestward to the British/U.S. Virgin Islands |
| 19/2100 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Dominica northward to Anguilla except St. Barthelemy and the French portion of St. Martin. |
| Hurricane Watch Issued | Puerto Rico |
| 20/0300 | Tropical Storm Warning |
St. Lucia and Martinique |
| 20/0900 | Hurricane Warning extended westward |
Dominica north and west to Puerto Rico |
| 20/2100 | Hurricane Watch Issued | Dominican Republic |
| 21/0900 | Hurricane Warning extended westward |
Dominica north and west to the Dominican Republic |
| Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch discontinued |
Martinique to St. Lucia |
| 21/1500 | Hurricane Watch extended north and west |
North coast of Haiti from St. Nicolas to the border of the Dominican Republic /
Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands. |
| Hurricane Warning discontinued |
All islands east of the Virgin Islands except Antigua, Barbuda, and the French Islands of St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. |
| Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Antigua, Barbuda, and the French Islands of St. Barthelemy and St. Martin. |
| 21/1900 | Hurricane Watch Issued |
Eastern Cuba from the Province of Las Tunas to Guantanamo |
| 22/0300 | Hurricane Warning extended westward |
U.S. & British Islands, Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Haiti, the Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands. |
| 22/0900 | Hurricane Warning discontinued |
U.S. & British Virgin Islands |
| 22/1500 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Eastern Cuba from the Province of Las Tunas to Guantanamo, the Central Bahamas from Acklins to Cat Island |
| Hurricane Watch Issued |
Eastern Cuba for the Provinces of Camaguey to Sancti Spiritus |
| Hurricane Warning discontinued | Puerto Rico |
| 23/0900 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Eastern Cuba for the Provinces of Camaguey to Sancti Spiritus / Central Bahamas. |
| Hurricane Watch Issued |
South Florida from Deerfield Beach southward on the east coast...and from south of Bonita Beach on the west coast
including the Florida Keys. |
| Hurricane Watch Issued |
Western Cuba for the Provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos and Matanzas/Northwest Bahamas. |
| 23/1500 | Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Jamaica |
| Hurricane Warning discontinued | Dominican Republic |
| 23/2100 | Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Cayman Islands...Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. |
| 24/0600 | Hurricane Warning discontinued |
The Southeast Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands. |
| 24/0900 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Northwest Bahamas / South Florida from Deerfield Beach southward on the east coast...and from south of Bonita Beach
on the west coast including the Florida Keys. |
| Hurricane Watch Issued | Florida east coast north of Deerfield Beach to Stuart...
and the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key. |
| Hurricane Warnings discontinued | Haiti |
| 24/1500 | Tropical Storm Warnings discontinued |
Cayman Islands...Cayman Brac and Little Cayman. |
| 24/2100 | Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Florida east coast north of Deerfield Beach to Stuart. |
| 25/0300 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Longboat Key. |
| Tropical Storm Warning Issued |
Florida west coast north of Longboat Key to Bayport. |
| Hurricane Warnings discontinued | Central Bahamas. |
| 25/0500 | Hurricane Watch discontinued |
Florida east coast Deerfield Beach to Stuart. |
| 25/0700 | Hurricane Warnings discontinued |
Cuba |
| Hurricane Watch discontinued | For Cuba east of Matanzas to Pinar Del Rio. |
| 25/1300 |
Hurricane Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Warning |
Florida east coast from north of Florida City to Deerfield Beach. |
| 25/1500 | Hurricane Watch Issued |
Gulf Coast from Morgan City Louisiana to St. Marks Florida. |
| Hurricane Warnings discontinued | Northwest Bahamas. |
| 25/2100 | Tropical Storm Warnings discontinued |
Florida east coast from north of Florida City to Deerfield Beach. |
| Hurricane Warnings discontinued |
Florida east coast south of Florida City to Key Largo. |
| 26/0300 |
Hurricane Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Warning |
Florida Keys south of Key Largo and Florida west coast south of Bayport. |
| Hurricane Watch discontinued | For Cuba east of Matanzas to Pinar Del Rio. |
| 26/0900 | Tropical Storm Warnings discontinued |
Florida west coast from Longboat Key to Bayport. |
| 26/1200 | Tropical Storm Warnings discontinued |
Florida Keys south of Key Largo and the Florida west coast south of Longboat Key |
| 26/1500 | Hurricane Warning Issued |
Morgan City, Louisiana to Panama City, Florida. |
| Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch |
Panama City, Florida to St. Marks, Florida. |
| Hurricane Watch | Morgan City, Louisiana to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. |
| 27/2100 | Hurricane Watch discontinued |
Panama City, Florida to St. Marks, Florida. |
| 28/0300 | Hurricane Watch discontinued |
Morgan City, Louisiana to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. |
| 28/1500 | Hurricane Warning discontinued |
Destin, Florida to Panama City, Florida. |
| Tropical storm Warning discontinued |
Panama City, Florida to St. Marks, Florida. |
| Hurricane Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Warning |
Grand Isle, Louisiana to Morgan City, Louisiana. |
| 28/2100 |
Hurricane Warning changed to a Tropical Storm Warning |
Grand Isle, Louisiana to Destin, Florida |
| Tropical Storm Warning discontinued |
Grand Isle, Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana. |
| 29/0300 | Tropical Storm Warning discontinued |
Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Mississippi River, Louisiana. |
| 29/0900 | Tropical Storm Warning discontinued |
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Pascagoula, Mississippi. |
| 29/1500 | Tropical Storm Warnings discontinued |
Pascagoula, Mississippi to Destin, Florida. |
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