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AGXX40 KNHC 170706
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2008

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 27N83W TO A FRONTAL WAVE NEAR 25N93W
WITH FRONT CONTINUING S TO 18N94W. NLY WINDS S OF 26N W OF FRONT
AT 20 KT. STILL EXPECT FRONT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF TO A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH MEANDERING OVER THE W
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODELS OCCASIONALLY SUGGEST LOW PRES
FORMATION ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT WILL GO WITH N WINDS W OF
TROUGH AND LIGHT ELY WINDS E OF TROUGH FOR NOW.

CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...
LATEST Q-SCAT PASS AND A FEW SHIP OBS CONFIRM BROAD TROPICAL
WAVE WAS IN VICINITY 80W AT 00Z. WINDS W OF WAVE AXIS MORE NE
THAN PROGGED...BUT SEEM TO BE AT LEAST 15 KT OVER W GULF OF
HONDURAS. QSCAT WINDS AND A FEW SHIP OBS INDICATE WINDS ALONG N
COAST COLOMBIA HAVE HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT...BUT SSMI DATA
SUGGESTS SEA HEIGHTS ARE STILL ABOUT 6-8 FT...AND SHIP V7LZ8
REPORTED 7 FT AT 00Z...SO WILL KEEP SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE GUIDANCE
INITIALLY OVER S-CENTRAL WATERS. NWW3 SEEMS RIGHT ON THE MONEY E
CARIBBEAN AND NW TROPICAL ATLC ZONE PER 2330Z JASON PASS.
WAVE ALONG 81W HAS MOVED W 13 KT PAST 24 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD
MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY SUNSET THU. ANOTHER
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ALONG 64W MOVED W 14 KT PAST 24 HOURS...
EXTRAPOLATING THAT MOTION WILL MOVE AXIS TO ALONG 71W THU...77W
FRI...83W SAT AND 87W SUN. YET ANOTHER WAVE IN CENTRAL ATLC WAS
ALONG 39W AT 00Z AND THAT WORKS OUT TO W 13 KT MOTION PAST 24
HOURS...USING THAT MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE TO ALONG 55W SUNSET
FRI AND INTO E CARIBBEAN SUNRISE SUN.

SW N ATLC...
THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N74W TO 30N65W
ATTM AND IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AS IT MOVES W-NW.
TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS BUT LITTLE
CONVECTION TONIGHT EXCEPT JUST NE OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE FRONT
CREEPING OFF NE FL COAST ATTM. STILL EXPECT THESE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES TO MERGE FRI ALONG 77W INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL RETURN SLOWLY W TO THE FL COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. E
OF TROUGH...RIDGE WILL BUILD W ALONG 29N WITH ELY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT S OF 23N AS EARLY AS SUNRISE FRI.

WARNINGS...

ATLANTIC...
NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.

FORECASTER NELSON. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.





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