PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 845 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2007
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN LOCALLY OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...
.SYNOPSIS...VERY SPOTTY AND ONLY SPORADIC RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE LED TO WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND KANSAS...WITH THE GREATEST LACK OF RAINFALL GENERALLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE SEEN SUFFICIENT RAINS TO KEEP SOILS MOIST AND CROPS HEALTHY...MANY AREAS ARE SUFFERING SHORT TERM SEVERE TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WELCOME RAINFALL IN THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS AS THE GROWING SEASON COMES TO AN END. UNLESS DROUGHT CONDITIONS WORSEN ANY FURTHER THIS AUTUMN...IT IS EXPECTED THIS WILL BE THE LAST DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.
.LOCAL AREAS AFFECTED...SEVERE DROUGHT HAS EMERGED OVER 7 COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW PREVAILING OVER 1 COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND 6 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MISSOURI. ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER 4 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND 10 COUNTIES IN PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI. NO DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
SEVERE DROUGHT (D2) - ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
IN MISSOURI :
LAFAYETTE...JACKSON...RAY...CLAY...PLATTE...CLINTON...AND BUCHANAN.
MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) - ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.
IN MISSOURI :
RANDOLPH...HOWARD...COOPER...SALINE...CARROLL...CALDWELL.
IN KANSAS :
WYANDOTTE.
ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) - ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.
COUNTIES INCLUDED IN THE ABNORMALLY DRY REGION...
IN MISSOURI:
MACON....LINN...CHARITON...LIVINGSTON...DAVIESS...DEKALB... ANDREW...CASS...JOHNSON...PETTIS.
IN KANSAS:
DONIPHAN...ATCHISON...LEAVENWORTH...AND JOHNSON.
NO DROUGHT EXISTS - ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI.
FOR THE LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR INFORMATION GO TO:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...THE MISSOURI DROUGHT ADVISORY COMMITTEE CONVENED SEP 20TH...AND UPDATED THE DROUGHT STATUS MAP ACROSS THE STATE. THE COUNTIES OF PLATTE...CLAY...RAY...CLINTON...AND CALDWELL WERE UPGRADED TO PHASE 2 DROUGHT ALERT STATUS WHERE SOME IMPACTS HAVE BEEN NOTED...AND FURTHER RAINFALL WILL BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS TO ALLEVIATE THE DROUGHT AND ITS NEGATIVE IMPACTS. THE REMAINDER OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI REMAIN UNDER PHASE 1 DROUGHT ADVISORY FOR ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS. NO WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED ACROSS THE STATE OF MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES WEB SITE AT:
http://www.dnr.mo.gov/env/wrc/droughtupdate.htm
THE KANSAS WATER OFFICE CONTINUES TO MONITOR SHORT TERM DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...HOWEVER THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED MORE PRECIPITATION THAN ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN MISSOURI...AND NO DROUGHT DECLARATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THE STATE OF KANSAS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CONCERNING KANSAS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE KANSAS WATER OFFICE WEB SITE AT:
http://www.kwo.org/
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...BELOW ARE 3-MONTH PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM SELECTED LOCATIONS ACROSS MISSOURI:
LOCATION JUL 1-SEP 22 PRECIP NORMAL DEPARTURE % NORMAL -------- ------------------- ------ --------- -------- KANSAS CITY 4.01 11.38 -7.37 35 ST JOSEPH 10.53 10.56 -0.03 100 CHILLICOTHE 9.43 11.51 -2.08 82 KIRKSVILLE 5.25 11.27 -6.02 47 SEDALIA 3.63 10.92 -7.29 33 COLUMBIA 3.56 10.10 -6.54 35 SPRINGFIELD 11.80 10.55 +1.25 112 JOPLIN 12.32 11.25 +1.07 110 ST LOUIS 6.38 9.08 -2.70 70
.SURFACE MOISTURE CONDITIONS...OVERALL SOIL MOISTURE DEFICITS ARE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE A BULLS EYE OF 80 MM TO 100 MM (3.1 TO 3.9 INCHES) NEGATIVE ANOMALIES EXIST. ANOMALIES DECREASE TO NEAR 20 MM TO 40 MM (0.8 TO 1.6 INCHES) TOWARDS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THE GREATEST DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED. NEAR AVERAGE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES ARE REPORTED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON SOIL MOISTURE CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CPC) WEB SITE AT:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml
.RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE SHORT TERM NATURE OF THESE DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND SEMI-REGULAR RAINFALL EVENTS...RIVER AND STREAM LEVEL HAVE YET TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED. MOST RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA ARE FLOWING AT OR NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS...THOUGH SOME OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSOURI RIVER IN WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI ARE FLOWING AT BELOW AVERAGE LEVELS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CAN BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB SITE:
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch/
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...GIVEN THE SHORT TERM NATURE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION...THE PRIMARY IMPACTS HAVE BEEN ON TOPSOIL MOISTURE AND PASTURE CONDITIONS. THE SOYBEAN CROP IS IN THE PROCESS OF TURNING COLOR AND DROPPING LEAVES...WITH THE CORN HARVEST WELL UNDER WAY. AT THIS POINT...THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL HAVE NO FURTHER NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON CROPS...AND DRY DAYS WILL ACTUALLY HELP ACCELERATE THE HARVEST OPERATIONS. THE STATEWIDE CORN CROP CONDITION WAS RATED AT 22 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR WITH NEARLY HALF THE CROP HARVESTED. THE BEST CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED IN WESTERN MISSOURI WHERE OPTIMAL GROWING CONDITIONS EXISTED DURING THE CRITICAL SILKING STAGE BACK IN JULY. STATEWIDE SOYBEAN CONDITION WAS REPORTED AT 28 PERCENT POOR TO VERY POOR WITH NEARLY 2/3RDS OF THE CROP AT LEAST TURNING COLOR. SLIGHTLY WORSE CONDITIONS WERE REPORTED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. SOYBEAN CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WERE GENERALLY MUCH BETTER THAN THE OVERALL STATE AVERAGE.
TOPSOIL MOISTURE WAS REPORTED AT 22 PERCENT VERY SHORT AND 33 PERCENT SHORT ACROSS THE STATE OF MISSOURI...WHICH REPRESENTS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST MONTH. THE MOST NOTABLE DEFICITS WERE REPORTED FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. PASTURE CONDITIONS WERE RATED AS 23 PERCENT POOR AND 23 PERCENT VERY POOR...WITH GENERALLY BETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EXPECTED RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE WEEKS SHOULD HELP BOTH THE TOPSOIL AND PASTURE CONDITIONS. ADDITIONAL AGRICULTURAL INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE USDA WEB SITE AT:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Missouri/
.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
...THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KDBI) IS A DROUGHT INDEX THAT IS SPECIFICALLY RELATED TO FIRE POTENTIAL.
THE KDBI IS BROKEN INTO 4 CATEGORIES WHICH INDICATE THE SUSCEPTIBILITY OF GROUND FUELS TO FIRE DANGER. BELOW ARE THE 4 CATEGORIES AND A BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF EACH.
KDBI 0 TO 200 - LOW.......WET WITH LITTLE DANGER OF FIRE INITIATION KDBI 201 TO 400 - MODERATE..DRYING OCCURRING WITH SOME FIRE DANGER KDBI 401 TO 600 - HIGH......GROUND COVER DRY AND WILL BURN READILY KDBI 601 TO 800 - EXTREME...DEAD AND LIVE FUELS WILL BURN READILY
THE CURRENT KDBI: EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI: MODERATE
...PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX.
THE PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX /PDSI/ IS A LONG TERM DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX. THE CURRENT WEEKLY PDSI REMAINS BETWEEN -1.9 AND +1.9 (NEAR NORMAL) FOR EASTERN KANSAS aND THE NORTHWEST THREE-QUARTERS OF MISSOURI.
1000-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES RANGED FROM 16 TO 20 PERCENT FOR EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI...AND HAVE NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS. 100-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WERE REPORTED BETWEEN 11 TO 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA...AND HAVE STEADILY BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST MONTH. 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES WERE REPORTED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PERCENT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THESE 10-HOUR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING OVER THE PAST MONTH. MORE INFORMATION RELATED TO FIRE DANGER IMPACTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE WILDLAND FIRE ASSESSMENT SYSTEM (WFAS) WEB SITE AT:
http://www.wfas.us/
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS...THE 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR THE OCT 1-OCT 7 PERIOD CALLS FOR A BETTER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. THE 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCTOBER 2007 INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THE PERIOD OCTOBER THROUGH DECEMBER 2007 INDICATES A SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN NORMAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND AN EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR AVERAGE PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTERS (CPC) OUTLOOK WEB SITE AT:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/
.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS...THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA'S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION SITES...COOPERATIVE AND VOLUNTEER OBSERVATIONS...USDAFS...THE USDA AND USGS.
.RELATED WEB SITES... LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFORMATION:
http://www.weather.gov/kc/
ADDITIONAL WATER INFORMATION:
USGS - http://water.usgs.gov/
COE - http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil/
US DROUGHT MONITOR:
http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT:
MARK O'MALLEY CLIMATE SERVICES FOCAL POINT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL Mark.OMalley@noaa.gov
.NEXT ISSUANCE...IT IS ANTICIPATED THIS WILL BE THE LAST DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR THIS EVENT.