About Climate Research

Climate is weather, averaged over time—usually a minimum of 30 years. Regional climate means the average weather trends in an area. For instance, summer along Colorado’s Front Range tends to mean warm days, a high likelihood of late-afternoon thunderstorms, and cool nights. Summer in southwestern India is the monsoon season, and massive thunderstorms tend to dominate. Global climate, an average of regional climate trends, describes the Earth’s climate as a whole. The Climate and Global Dynamics Division of the Earth and Sun Systems Laboratory conducts broad-ranging research on all aspects of climate.

These days, when global climate is mentioned, conversations usually segue immediately to climate change. Global climate change, whether it involves more heat or more cold, more precipitation or more drought, is mainly the result of planetary warming. Since 1900, the Earth has warmed about 1°F (0.7°C). Regionally, the effects of this warming vary. For instance, scientists contributing to the 2007 International Panel on Climate Change predict changing precipitation patterns and retreating glaciers in Latin America, higher crop productivity in high-latitude regions, and sea level rise along coastal regions.

Using various tools and techniques, including climate models, radar and weather-balloon observations, satellite data, etc., NCAR climate researchers are working to understand the impacts of global and regional climate change.

Topics in Climate Research

• Climates of the Past

  Our climate has been constantly changing since Earth began—long before human beings were around to study it. How do we know what Earth and its climate were like in prehistoric times? The clues come from Earth itself—from ice frozen for millennia, fossilized plants, tree rings, and other artifacts that scientists analyze in many ways.

• How do we know Earth is warming?

  For more than 100 years, Earth's surface temperature has been monitored by a global network of land-based weather stations, supplemented by readings taken across the oceans. Together, these data show that Earth's surface air temperature has risen more than 1.0°F (0.7°C) since the late 1800s. Researchers have identified human activities that amplify the natural greenhouse effect as a major culprit.

• Climate of the future

  Climate simulations at NCAR have shown that changes in the Sun's intensity explain less than a third of the global warm-up during the last century. The most likely explanation for a warming Earth is the greenhouse gases emitted when fossil fuels are burned. The effects of future climate change will be not a simple and uniform warming over the entire planet but far more varied, with some regions considerably hotter or cooler, or wetter or drier, than others.

• Understanding Regional Effects of a Shifting Climate

  Some aspects of regional climate change are already well established. For instance, high-latitude areas such as Canada, Russia, and the Arctic are warming more rapidly than the tropics, as was predicted by computer models. In many nations, rainfall and snowfall are becoming more concentrated, and regions poleward of latitude 40°N are expected to see more days with heavy precipitation. NCAR scientists and colleagues are working to improve understanding of other potential regional changes.

• El Nino's Effects

  This large-scale oceanic warming affects most of the tropical Pacific. Its weather impacts, and those of its cool-ocean counterpart, La Niña, reach even farther: to the whole Pacific Rim, eastern Africa, and beyond. Together, El Niño and La Niña provide one of the main sources of year-to-year variation in weather and climate around the world.

• Drought and wildland fire

  When reliable rainfall disappears from a region for years or even decades, the impacts on flora, fauna, and people are profound. Through exhaustive analyses, NCAR scientists have helped pinpoint how large-scale climate cycles can produce drought at far-flung locations. Where drought does strike, the risk of wildland fire soars. NCAR has launched an innovative, multidisciplinary project, the Wildland Fire Collaboratory, to address this concern.