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Marine Weather Discussion
000
AGXX40 KNHC 161723
MIMATS
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...
CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK...EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM THE APALACHEE BAY THROUGH WEAK
LOW PRESSURE AT 27N92W TO 19N95W. BUOY REPORTS AND A 1246 UTC
QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATE THAT N TO NE 15 TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING W
OF THE FRONT W OF 91W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF UP TO 25 KT
S OF 25N W OF 95W. SEAS RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT N OF 25N W OF 91W
EXCEPT FOR 3 TO 4 FT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TX COAST BUT HAVE BUILT
TO 5 TO 8 FT S OF 25N W OF FRONT. E OF 91W W OF FRONT NE WINDS
ARE BLOWING 10 TO 15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT. SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
BOUNDARY BOTH OFFSHORE THE LOUISIANA COAST AND OFFSHORE THE NE
MEXICAN COAST FROM LA PESCA TO NEAR VERA CRUZ...BUT THIS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT AND WED. OTHERWISE...A GENTLE NE
TO E WIND FLOW PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2
FT OR LESS.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT LIFTS NE AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA...THE FRONT SHOULD STALL WED AND GRADUALLY BECOME ILL-
DEFINED. AS THIS OCCURS...THE 20 KT N TO NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ONLY SLOWLY ABATE...WITH STILL INTERMITTENT 20 KT WINDS
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WED. WITH WINDS COMING DOWN...EXPECT
SEAS TO BEGIN SUBSIDING TOO. NOAA WAVEWATCH III INDICATES 3 TO 5
FT SEAS OVER THE NW GULF W OF THE FRONT BY WED NIGHT...STILL 4
TO 7 FT W OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW ZONE...AND 2 FT OR LESS SEAS
N OF THE FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT
WILL HAVE DISSIPATED...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST OVER THE NW
GULF SHOULD PERSIST THU AND FRI EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WILL HAVE
DISSIPATED...BUT IT TOO SHOULD UNWIND BY SAT.
BY LATE FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND...MODELS SHOW A SECOND SURGE
COMING DOWN THE EAST COAST WHICH SHOULD BRING ANOTHER WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...NE
TO E WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KT AND SEAS SHOULD RANGE
BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FT. OTHERWISE...A CONTINUED GENTLE NE TO E FLOW
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR N TO NE
OVER THE WESTERN GULF.
CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC...
AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ON ITS
WAY OUT BUT IS STILL CREATING RELATIVELY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
OVER PARTS OF THE SW CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
SATELLITE PICTURES CONFIRM THIS...INDICATING SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER THESE AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS. MODELS STILL INSIST ON A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING EITHER OVER OR W OF CENTRAL AMERICA THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AND SLOWLY DRIFTING W TO NW. HOWEVER...MANY MORE OF THE
MODEL RUNS ARE SUGGESTING THAT ANY LOW PRESSURE TO FORM WOULD DO
SO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC S OF CENTRAL AMERICA. WHETHER OR NOT
LOW PRESSURE EVOLVES OR NOT...THE LARGE-SCALE GRADIENT EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WEAK. THUS LITTLE TO NO INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE
NOTED IN THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN ZONES LATER THIS WEEK...THOUGH
A MENTION OF SCATTERED TSTMS HAS BEEN INSERTED.
ELSEWHERE...AN 1104 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS CONFIRMS E WINDS TO 20 KT
OVER THE S CENTRAL WATERS...FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W.
SEAS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE BETWEEN 4 AND 7 FT OVER THIS AREA...
THOUGH UP TO 8 FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THESE WINDS CONTINUING INTO WED BUT THEN
DECREASING HERE AND BASIN WIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...A
GENTLE TO MODERATE NE TO E FLOW IS EXPECTED ALL AREAS. WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW AND 3 TO 5 FT ELSEWHERE.
FINALLY...A MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS W OF A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 60W FROM
ABOUT 16N TO 22N. IN FACT...E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED
WITHIN 360 NM E OF THE WAVE AXIS. A SWATH OF MODERATE TO STRONG
WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE WAVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO
TOMORROW AS IT SHIFTS ANOTHER FIVE DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE
TREND IN THE MODELS IS TO WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM NEARLY COMPLETELY
BY LATE WED. NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE NOW
REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS E OF THE WAVE AXIS...
STRETCHING FROM 10N TO 22N.
SW N ATLC...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIES A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IMMEDIATELY N OF THE AREA...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM 31N6W TO 25N70W. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD
AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY BY EARLY THU. NW OF THE TROUGH...GENTLE NE
WINDS PREVAIL WITH SEAS OF 1 TO 3 FT. SE OF THE TROUGH SE TO S
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS ARE THE RULE EXCEPT SW WITHIN 120 NM OF
THE TROUGH. SEAS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST E...AND 2 FT OR
LESS W OF THE BAHAMAS.
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE
FAR NW WATERS EARLY THU AND BECOME DIFFUSE WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 27N65W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS. EVEN THOUGH THE FIRST FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY FADE AWAY...
A NEW SURGE MOVING DOWN THE EAST COAST SHOULD INTRODUCE ANOTHER
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW WATERS FRI...WITH THE FRONT STALLING FROM
ABOUT 31N72W TO ABOUT CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY SAT AND THEN
RETREATING AS A WARM FRONT LATE SAT INTO SUN. STRONG NE WINDS
OVER A RELATIVELY NARROW FETCH AREA SHOULD GENERATE BUILDING
SEAS OFFSHORE THE SE CONUS COAST LATE FRI AND SAT. ALTHOUGH MOST
OF THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE AREA...ASSOCIATED
SWELL SHOULD ARRIVE OVER THE NW WATERS...MOSTLY N OF 29N W OF
75W...AND PRODUCE WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5 TO POSSIBLY 8 FT. ADDITIONAL
NE SWELL BEING GENERATED OFF THE EAST COAST SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
THE SW N ATLC WATERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND CAUSE SEAS TO
BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FT NE OF THE BAHAMAS AND 3 TO 5 FT W OF THE
BAHAMAS.
WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...
NONE.
CARIBBEAN...
NONE.
GULF OF MEXICO...
NONE.
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.
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