Tropical Storm DOLLY

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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042008
500 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED A LITTLE...TO 997 MB.  THE SFMR ON BOARD
THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED WINDS NEAR 60 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
BUT THESE READINGS WERE IN AREAS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WHICH
PROBABLY CAUSED SPIKES IN THE VELOCITY VALUES.  ASSUMING THAT THESE
WERE OVERESTIMATES BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE SLIGHTLY LOWER
PRESSURE THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER...50 KT.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS STILL IN THE ORGANIZING STAGE WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  THERE IS A PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW CHANNEL EMANATING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE
CIRCULATION THAT EXTENDS ANTICYCLONICALLY AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE
OF DOLLY AND POURING SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER
OUTFLOW IS BEING INHIBITED OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STORM BY
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A MORE SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN EVOLVING OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.  RECENT ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR/OVER THE CENTER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS IMMINENT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT
NOT FAR FROM THE GFDL/HWRF PREDICTIONS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ONCE DOLLY ESTABLISHES AN INNER CORE...I.E. AN EYEWALL-LIKE
STRUCTURE...THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FAIRLY RAPID IN
COMPARISON TO WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED THUS FAR.  HOWEVER...IT SEEMS
UNLIKELY THAT DOLLY WOULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.

FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE MOTION HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF DUE WEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...OR 280/13.  
THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED.  A COUPLE OF
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY
REGION ARE FORECAST TO ERODE SLIGHTLY THE PORTION OF THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER EASTERN TEXAS.  AS A RESULT...THE TRACK
OF DOLLY IS LIKELY TO BEND TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH ADDITIONAL
DECELERATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE LATEST NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF THE LATEST GFDL/HWRF TRACKS.  AGAIN IT SHOULD BE
EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST NOT
FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 23.3N  93.8W    50 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 24.1N  95.1W    55 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 25.0N  96.5W    65 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 25.7N  97.5W    75 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 26.0N 102.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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