Tropical Storm IKE

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TROPICAL STORM IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT WED SEP 03 2008
 
IKE IS WRAPPING UP SOME SOLID CONVECTIVE BANDING AS VIEWED IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND SINCE A PARTIAL OVERPASS SEVERAL HOURS AGO
FROM AMSR-E SUGGESTED A MICROWAVE EYE WAS FORMING...WE MIGHT SEE AN
EYE IN THE VISIBLE BEFORE TOO MUCH LONGER.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
T-NUMBERS AT 1200 UTC WERE A CONSENSUS 4.0...BUT OBJECTIVE NUMBERS
ARE A LITTLE LOWER...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT FOR NOW.  IN
ANY CASE...IKE IS ON THE CUSP OF BEING A HURRICANE AND SHOULD BE
ONE LATER TODAY.  THE UNDERLYING OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY GET
WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...MAXIMIZING BEYOND 48 HOURS NEAR
29 CELSIUS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A STRENGTHENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD.  DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HOWEVER...IKE
MIGHT ENCOUNTER A LITTLE INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH
BEHIND THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE DOES NOT FORECAST
ANY WEAKENING AS A RESULT...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS FORECAST ROBUST
STRENGTHENING...UNTIL IKE HEADS FARTHER WEST...ESCAPES THE
SHEAR...AND MOVES OVER EVEN WARMER WATERS NEAR THE GREATER
ANTILLES.  STEADY STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT DAYS 3-5 IN LINE
WITH MOST OF THE INTENSITY MODELS...AND IKE COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE FIVE DAYS PASS.

IKE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/16 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE
MODELS FORECAST IKE TO BEND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THAT
RIDGE...BUT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS IT WILL RUN INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  NEARLY ALL OF THE MODELS AGREE THAT
THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE IKE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY
WESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THAT FEATURE...BUT THEY
DO NOT AGREE ON THE EXACT LATITUDE OR THE SPEED OF THAT WESTWARD
MOTION.  THE CONSENSUS HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE LATE IN THE
FIVE-DAY PERIOD...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK...BUT
OTHERWISE THE NEW TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...EXCEPT FOR
A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD PROGRESS WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 20.8N  51.2W    60 KT
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 21.7N  53.7W    65 KT
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 23.1N  56.8W    70 KT
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.8N  59.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N  62.0W    70 KT
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 22.5N  67.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     07/1200Z 22.0N  71.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     08/1200Z 22.5N  75.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
 
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