Hurricane IKE

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HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 09 2008
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE
THAT IKE HAS A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS BUT THE
INNER CORE OR EYE IS VERY SMALL BUT WELL DEFINED...ABOUT 6 TO 8 NM.
THE EYE CAN BE SEEN FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS. ALTHOUGH THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN AROUND 963-965 MB...THE MAXIMUM
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS MEASURED SO FAR WERE ONLY 69 KNOTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 70 KNOTS ASSUMING THAT THE PLANE HAS NOT
SAMPLED THE ENTIRE CIRCULATION...BUT THIS VALUE APPEARS QUITE
GENEROUS AT THIS TIME.  ON THE OTHER HAND...GIVEN THE WELL DEFINED
STRUCTURE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND THE FACT THAT IKE HAS SEVERAL
MORE HOURS OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...THE WINDS
WINDS COULD INCREASE SOME NEAR THE CORE BEFORE MOVING OVER WESTERN
CUBA. ONCE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IKE WILL
HAVE PLENTY OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE...AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER SEVERAL AREAS
OF HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAKES IKE A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE AND THIS VALUE IS IN BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL MODELS.
 
FIXES FROM CUBAN AND KEY WEST RADARS AS WILL AS PENETRATIONS FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE SMALL EYE OF IKE IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...VERY CLOSE TO THE ZAPATA
PENINSULA ON THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA. A GENERAL WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND THE SOUTH
COAST OF HAVANA PROVINCE SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEN...THE CENTER SHOULD CROSS WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY.
UNFORTUNATELY... IKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY NEAR TO WHERE
HURRICANE GUSTAV CROSSED CUBA A WEEK OR SO AGO. THE STEERING PATTERN
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE AND IKE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS THE RIDGE
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A SHORT WAVE.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN AND SHOULD FORCE IKE ON A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK. IN FACT...UNANIMOUSLY...GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD AND ONCE
AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED TO THE LEFT AND STILL IS
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
IT CANNOT BE OVEREMPHASIZED THAT ONE SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON 4 AND 5 DAY
FORECAST POINTS SINCE THESE CAN BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL ERRORS.
DO NOT FORGET THAT FEW DAYS AGO...THE GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY HAD IKE
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFTED THE DANGER TOWARD
WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/0900Z 22.0N  82.1W    70 KT
 12HR VT     09/1800Z 22.7N  83.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     10/0600Z 23.5N  85.3W    85 KT
 36HR VT     10/1800Z 24.2N  86.8W    90 KT
 48HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N  88.5W    95 KT
 72HR VT     12/0600Z 25.5N  93.0W   100 KT
 96HR VT     13/0600Z 27.0N  97.5W   100 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     14/0600Z 28.0N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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