- National Predictive Service Group (NPSG)
-
Meeting Notes
Location: National Interagency
Members Present:
Guests:
Notetaker:
Lani Williams
Meeting Agenda Topics:
1. Introductions & Meeting Logistics –Tom
2. Project funding status – Tom
a) FY-2004 report
b) FY-2005 proposal process – Tom/Kim
3. Lessons Learned - 2004 (season review along with unresolved and emerging issues) including a review of November Intell/Met meeting agenda and expected results
a) Intell (30 minutes) – Deb
b) Met (30 minutes) – Rick
c) NWS (30 minutes) – Rusty
4. Intelligence Coordinators Report – Deb
a) Intelligence
Training update
b) SIT/209
c) Ownership vs. Protection Reporting update – Kim
5. Web Task Group Charter – Gerry/Jay Ellington
· Conference call with Jay Ellington
6. NPSG Framework – Gerry
a) Discussion of where we are and where we need to go
b) User Assessment – status/need
c) Include action items, assignments, completion dates and funding
d) National Park
Service Fire Ecology Program Strategic Plan – Chip
7. Fire Environment Working Team Update – Gerry/Paul Schlobohm
8.
9. Standardized Products for GACCs – Rick
10. NPS Fire Ecology Program – Chip
11. Research – How do we get “Plugged in” – Tom/Gerry
a) Opportunities for getting topic areas in front of research
b) FS logic model update
c) How to integrate into project proposal/funding process
d) Other
12. AMS Meeting – Fall 2005 (see notes from last meeting) – Rick
a) Special section on Predictive Services
b) Who should represent NPSG?
c) Update on how and what NPSG representative should discuss
13. Predictive Services Conference/Symposium- (see notes from last meeting) – Gerry
14. Validation & Verification (Conference call with Chuck Maxwell)
a) Adherence
to consensus decision on 2004 verification process – Chuck Maxwell
b) Update
on what will be presented at Nov. Intel/Met meeting – Tom/Chuck
15. Integrating Decision Support into Predictive Services – Gerry
a) Update on Don McGregor’s visit to NWCC during summer of 2004 (30 min)
b) Resource Allocation Topic (30 min) – Neal Hitchock and Michael Bevins
16. User Feedback and Bin Items – All
a) AWIPS Equipment – Heath
b) ROMAN – Ed Delgado
c) Red Flag Fuels/Large Fire Potential
d) National Seasonal Assessment Workshop Funding
e) Where to take “Spot Weather Forecast Policy – Rusty
f) Agenda for January Meeting
g) Pending Actions
h) Prep
for Predictive Services
17. Next Meeting; January 18-20 (
· Logistics and Topics
Exhibits
A. Pending Action Items Tracking Table 5 pgs
B. Completed Action Items Tracking Table 6 pgs
C. NPSG Funding and Project Status 2 pgs
D. NPSG Framework and Goals-Final Draft 14 pgs
E. Lessons Learned – 2004 Meteorologists 1 pgs
F. Lessons Learned – 2004 National Weather Service 2 pgs
G. Fire Environment Working Team (FENWT) 2 pgs
H. Fire Weather Center Proposal 2 pgs
I. National Park Service Fire Ecology Program Strategic Plan: 2004-2008 28 pgs
J. Standard Products for Predictive Services 3 pgs
K. Charles Maxwell Email 1 pgs
L. Gridded
FX-Net Project Proposal 1 pgs
Tuesday –
Project Funding Status – Tom: (Exhibit C)
ROMAN
· Approved as an application in the BLM IT Portfolio in FY-06.
· NPSG has provided funding that should carry the program through December 2004.
Decision: Arrange a conference call this week with Ed
Delgado for update of:
·
Plan for 2005
·
Contingency
·
Options/Plans
Gridded-FX Net
· Hardware purchased with yearend money.
Red Flag Fuels Criteria
· Not funded
· Submitted to JFSP
· Denied as being too operational
Predictive Services Product Verification Study
· Not funded
Resource Utilization Study
· Needed for Cheetah default values
· Data is complete through July 2003
Decision: Need to arrange for follow up and completion
of data input into spreadsheet that Tom and Don Carlton developed. Kim was unaware the resource utilization data
had not been updated and agreed to appoint someone to complete the data input
through 2004.
User Assessment Plan
· Unable to find someone with current contract to task prior to the end of FY-04
Decision:
Need to follow up with user assessment in 2005.
National Seasonal Assessment Workshop
· Funded by NPSG Climas and NOAA for $15,000 in 2004
· Climas and NOAA may not be providing funding for 2005
Decision: Summary of FY-05 funding will be focused on
three areas: National Seasonal
Assessment Workshops, User Assessment and Standardized Products.
Funding Proposal Process – Rick/Kim:
A proposal process has not been worked out yet. Although funding is limited a process is still needed so that proposals can be prioritized.
Intelligence Coordinators Report – Deb
· Intelligence Training Update – There will be three levels of Intell Dispatchers. Qualifications will be managed by the Dispatch Training Steering Committee with oversight from the Intell Working Group.
·
SIT/209 – The SIT/209 Committee is proposing
developing an official Change Board. The
Committee also needs to be tied in with the Fire Occurrence Working Group.
· Ownership/Protection Reporting Update – To be covered later.
Lessons Learned – 2004 Meteorologists – Rick: (Exhibit E)
With the
exception of
Predictive Services Agreements:
· Validation of ERC – FM “G” and update of products was not done by all of the GACC’s.
· Need to find a way to insure accountability in that agreements and commitments are acted upon
BlueSky/RAINS
· USFS is considering studying a request by EPA to implement BlueSky/RAINS in the West.
Lessons Learned – 2004 National Weather Service – Rusty: (Exhibit F)
· Below average number of IMET Dispatches
· NWS cosigned FENWT Charter (first NWCG Charter for the NWS)
· Verification of NFDRS sites – NWS needs a list of RAWS sites that meet NFDRS Standards
· IMET Role Expansion Team – Studying the feasibility and requirements to expand IMET support to all-hazards.
· Spot Forecasts requests continue to increase – Requesting review of policies to assist in defining a formal process.
Web Task Group Charter – Jay Ellington:
The Charter was modeled after other NWCG Charters. The group is comprised of the former Task Force Members:
Jay Ellington, SWC, Chair
Ed Delgado, EBC
Steve Marion, EAC
Tom Rolinski, OSC
Kathy Wiegard, WBC
Dan Ervin, NIFC, Ad Hoc Member
A
presentation will be made at the Predictive Services/Intelligence Meeting next
week. The Host Server is scheduled to be
available in January. The National
Webpage should be posted early 2005. GACCs will be required to use the new
template by
Decision: Charter was approved.
Kim will send out letter that
will include expectations and implementation dates.
Accountability will be a
subject at the Coordinators Meeting.
Jay will work with Dan on
obstacles and “pinch points’ for Host Server implementation.
NPSG Liaison to the Web Group
will be Rick.
Jay will update NPSG at the
January Meeting. (2004-32)
NPSG Framework – Gerry: (Exhibit D)
Objectives:
Deal with comments that were received – Find a way to address in Framework or capture in next phase.
In exploring the possibility of a User Assessment task from the previous meeting additional requirements were discovered that made the option unattainable.
·
Goal 1 –
User Assessment
Guidance is needed to determine the best way to solicit comments from users.
Other groups may also be looking at surveys (e.g. FENWT)
Advantage to doing one large survey versus same groups having to complete several surveys
Survey costs could be reduced through partnerships
NPSG could develop the survey and PowerPoint presentations and present them to each GACC
Social
Science Research Meeting in
Decision:
Identify advisor for Goal (possibilities
including: NCRS or Don MacGregor).
Invite
Advisor to the January meeting to develop a course of action that the group can
accomplish. (2004-33)
Decision: See Goal 1.
Invite Kim Kelly from NWCC to discuss findings from work
with the Predictive Services unit at NWCC and at the facilitated GIS Session at
the Predictive Service Meeting scheduled for the first week of November in
Before this Goal can be discussed more information is
needed about where we are at. A
questionnaire could be distributed to Meteorologists, Intelligence Coordinators
and Center Managers. Need to look at
obstacles to accomplishing the current workload – “pinch points”. Examples include:
Technology
Data
Staffing/Collateral Duties
Expertise (analytical skills)
Travel Budget
Priorities
Organization
Operating Plan for office
Key success and accomplishments should also be
requested. This response should be more
open-ended:
RAWS data quality
New products developed
Products issued
Feedback to NWS
The questionnaire should also allow the responder to
indicate their current position.
Decision: Rick and Chip will develop questionnaire to
identify “pinch points”, key successes and/or accomplishments for improving
Predictive Services functionality. (2004-35)
Performance
Standards are a way to define success and differ from validation/verification
of products. Some performance standards
are listed in the MOB Guide. Performance
Standards should be developed as
part of the product design. In order to
work through this goal a list of current products and services offered and
their Performance Standard.
Decision: Rick and Deb (Mike Lococo) will assemble a
list and examples of products and services form the Fall Predictive Services
Meeting. Performance Standards should be
included. (2004-26)
This Goal
deals with working relationships; internal/external,
Meteorologists/Intelligence, GACC/ NIFC.
What needs to be identified are the Best Business Practices, what works
best and what does not and what can NPSG do to help enhance the
interaction. This goal helps supply the
groundwork for Goal 6.
Decision: Include a question to the survey in Goal 3
that address the integration of functions under Predictive Services. (2004-35)
This goal
needs a list of products and what the users wants, maybe a project that one or
two GACCs can work on.
Decision: Revisit after listing of products.
Wednesday –
Fire Environment Working Team (FENWT) Update – Paul
Schlobohm: (Exhibit G)
At its Fall meeting in Annapolis,
MD the NWCG reconfigured several working Teams and created the Fire Environment
Working Team (FENWT) to provide an integrated approach to fire weather, fire
behavior and fire danger. This will be
accomplished through coordination with Predictive Services, Air/Smoke
Management, Fuels Management and the National Weather Service. With the formation of FENWT, other Working
Teams under NWCG will be realigned (Fire Behavior, Fire Danger and Fire
Weather). NPSG will have a member on
FENWT.
The Western Governors Association
(WGA) received a grant from NOAA to assess the feasibility of a
NPSG Framework (continued) – Gerry: (Exhibit D)
·
Goal 7 –
Data Infrastructure
Data Infrastructure
o Standards
o Performance Standards
o Minimum Data Entry Requirements
The group needs a better understanding of the requirements needed; this includes defining required fields as well as acceptable values for fields. Need to determine the role of NPSG. What can NPSG influence? What can NPSG change?
Decision: Heath will invite Judy
Crosby (Data Architect, NWCG Project Management Office) to the meeting in
January to advise and council the NPSG on the appropriate path. (2004-36)
National Products with published standards could be a starting point. In order to address issues, there needs to be a process for documenting compliance.
Decision: Rick and Kim will develop a process to check
for performance of GACCs for issuing products on time and in compliance with
standards. (2004-37)
NPS Fire Ecology Program – Chip: (Exhibit I)
The National Park Service Fire
Ecology Program has written a Strategic Plan that incorporates their Goals,
Decision:
Use the NPS Strategic Plan Template to develop Draft NPSG
Framework. (2004-38)
Chip will obtain a copy of the
document in Word.
Neal will write Appendix A.
Gerry will write Appendix B.
Standardized Products for Predictive Services – Rick (Exhibit J)
Predictive Services are doing a
good job within their own areas. Issues
of non standardization remain. Weekly
and daily products differ from GACC to GACC.
There are also no standards definitions for some key terminology, (e.g. fire
potential). If nothing is done, products
will become even more splintered. NPSG
needs to provide leadership and support to GACCs to make implementation
successful. Utilize individuals from
outside the group to give them ownership in the process. Use one product as a starting point;
Decision:
Assemble a team.
Encourage them to look at
existing products
Invite them to the meeting in
January for status report
Key items
·
What is going to
be done related to proposals?
·
Who is going to be
involved?
·
Implementation
Strategy
·
Funding Needs
Goal – implementation by June
2006
Research – Tom
The Annual JFSP Principle
Investigator Meeting may be an opportunity to educate/build support for
Predictive Service Research Proposals.
Logic
Models provide the building blocks for strategic goals and objectives.
Includes
Performance Measures
Forest
Service Research is now being related to the National Fire Plan – focused on
WUI
Decision: Gerry will
pass on information about work unit level meetings as available. NPSG members are encouraged to attend and
share Predictive Services research needs.
ROMAN – Ed Delgado
·
Financial
o Currently funded through January 2005 though NPSG
o Business Case is included in BLM Fiscal Year 2006 Portfolio
o Additional funding is still needed
o Past funding has come from Utah State BLM
·
Technical
o Server to be housed at NWS in
o Equipment is purchased
o Dual service with NWS and University, two ROMAN Systems in
parallel for full redundancy
Validation and Verification – Chuck Maxwell: (Exhibit K)
After consensus
for standardized product at meeting last year, only two GACCs have developed
product; with an additional two in the process.
Concern over what compels compliance, benefits for those who
do/consequences for those who do not.
Barriers for compliance include:
Staffing Issues
Conflicting direction for Geographic Area
Board/Center Manager
Considered a step backward by some
Need to know what “Fire Potential” is
first
NPSG needs
to look at the total spectrum of Program Management issues which include:
agency commitment, interagency program direction, funding and
personnel/staffing.
Decision: Neal, Kim, Gerry and Rick will work with Fire
Directors to correct obstacles and deficiencies in Predictive Services. After discussion, a letter will be
distributed to the GACC Boards and Center Managers. (2004-39)
Thursday –
AMS Meeting, Fall 2005 – Rick:
·
The 5th
Symposium will be held in
·
Rick will be the Chair
for the Predictive Services Session
·
The call for papers
has not gone out yet
·
There have not been
any organizational meetings yet
·
This is an opportunity
for exposure/encourage product development
Decision: Rick will continue to keep the group
informed.
Protection vs. Ownership Reporting Update – Kim:
Discrepancies
exist between NICC, GACCs and agency totals when analyzing number of fires and
acres. The largest discrepancy is
between GACC and Agency totals for number of fires (71,000 vs. 21,000). Some of the discrepancies can be attributed
to reporting differences concerning ownership vs. protection. It is recommended that fires should be
reported by ownership at the point of origin.
This issue is an excellent opportunity to tie into the Fire Occurrence
Committee. Compliance can be facilitated
through the SIT Reporting process.
Decision:
·
Recommend to NMAC
a change in MOB Guide to reflect reporting by ownership. Kim will write a letter from NMAC with
specific direction; stating issue and requiring more accurate reporting in
Firestat and on 1202’s. (2004-11)
·
Gerry will talk to Barry and/or George to ensure
Predictive Services involvement in the Fire Occurrence Committee process.
BIN
Items:
AWIPS/Gridded FX-Net Project – Heath: (Exhibit L)
· Shifted out of AWIPS due to cost
· Phase 1 has been funded
· Project will be presented to the Meteorologists at the Predictive Services Meeting next week
· Projects has received conditional approval from BLM IRM
· AWIPS equipment can be rebuilt
· Bandwidth issues may exist
· Maintenance still an unknown
· Need to test multiple client configurations
Integrated Decision Support:
·
Update on
Don MacGregor’s Visit to NWCC during summer 2004 – Gerry
Don McGregor, a Decision Scientist, visited NWCC this past summer. His task was to understand the operational working environment at a GACC by observing briefings, conference calls and conducting interviews. The goal is to develop a one day course for the NWCC staff on incorporating decision science into the GACC level decision process to be presented during the winter/spring. Gerry will share with the Center Managers in December.
·
Resource
Allocation – Neal
Resource Allocation decisions are fundamental to Decision Science. Over the summer Neal met with Michael Bevins (USFS Research, Ft. Collins, CO), they discussed the possibility of using Decision Science in the propositioning of resources. This can be accomplished by reviewing past fires and determining if propositioned resources would have helped. Classes of probabilities are defined as well as trigger factors. Difficulty is in quantifying known events and determining how results would have differed. This could also tie into Preparedness Levels. There is currently no collective model for making decisions. Social aspects are also important; why people made their decisions. Michael would like to:
o Look
back at past fire events
o Solicit expert opinions; Did prepositions help
o Develop a Hypothesis
o Test the Hypothesis in future fires
o Evaluate
Study would need to start with small numbers to refine what information needs to be collected/evaluated. This could be a potential proposal for JFSP.
Decision: Michael Bevins will write a proposal to Neal
on data collection approach. (2004-41)
Local User – Mike
Ford (Fuels,
·
Heavily used the Daily
Conferences with the National Weather Service
·
Relied on National
Weather Service Products, noted standardization
·
Intell WebPages
differed greatly
·
Viewed most Predictive
Service Products mainly utilized by GACCs
Red Flag
Fuels/Large Fire Potential
·
Unfunded
·
On Agenda for
Predictive Services Meeting next week
·
Consistency in
terminology and thresholds is needed
·
Information is used by
local Weather Service offices in issuing Red Flag Warnings/Watches
Decision: At the
annual Predictive Services meeting in
National Seasonal
Assessment Workshop Funding
Decision: NPSG
agreed to fund $14,000 which may be reduced if Climas and/or NOAA provide
financial support. They have
historically contributed approximately $2000.00.
Spot Forecast
Need to understand what is driving the workload.
Decision: Rusty and
Neal will write an Issue Statement to distribute to each agency requesting
current Agency Policy. (2004-42)
Fire Weather
Meteorologist Position – Rick
There is a possible change in direction of the program as
vacated positions are being filled.
Additionally some positions may not be funded due to reduced
budgets. These actions could affect
NPSG’s ability to implement the Framework.
A reiteration of the original direction may be in order.
Dan Ervins’s Time
NPSG needs to prioritize requests for Dan’s time.
Website vs. SIT/209
Change Requests/Reports for the SIT/209 need to be
revisited to determine validity
Decision: Website
Server is the NPSG’s priority for Dan’s time.
Messages for
Predictive Services Meeting
·
Discuss Framework
Actions
·
Working with Fire
Directors on Program Management Issues
·
Uniform Guidance on
terminology, standards, Webpage and standard National Products
·
NPSG Funding for 3005
·
National Seasonal
Assessment Workshops
·
User Assessment
·
Standard Products
·
Growing use and
dependence on Predictive Services Products
o
Standard Daily
Products (Rick)
o
Standards (safety,
efficiency, others)
o
Daily and Weekly
Products
o
Daily Products (Day
1-7, tabular/graphic)
o
User Survey and
Facilitated Meetings
o
Product Design Team (Meteorologists,
Intelligence Coordinators, Fire Analysis, Center Managers)
o
Implementation Plan
Meeting Schedule:
Meeting Room Requirements:
Projection Access
Ability to order food in
Invite Predictive Services Guests, earlier in meeting to be more effective
Winter Meeting
Start at 1200, adjourn end of day Thursday
Spring Meeting
Start at 0800