| Climate Change Research in the US Forest Service Index |
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ReThinking Forest Management in the West
Connie Millar, Ph.D.
Pacific Southwest Research Station
March 2, 2007 at the Redwood Sciences Lab. Arcata, CA. |
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Topics:
Natural Climate Cycles
IPCC Overview Highlights
IPCC Temperature and CO2 Projections
West: Temp and Precip
West: Drought Cycles
West: Snowpack and Streamflow
West: Glaciers
West: Forest Densification
West: Forest Mortality
West: Climate and Fire
California: 2100 Climate Projection
Current Mgmt Paradigms
Question: Are Current Concepts OK?
Limitations of Current Premises 1. HRV
2. Ecologic Sustainability
3. NRV
4. Disturbance
New Mgmt Premises
Management Decisions
Overview 5 "R" Strategies
Toolbox Approach
Resistence Strategy
Examples of Resistence
Short Term Nature of Resistence Strategies
Resilience Strategy
Examples of Resilience
Response Strategy
Examples of Response
Realignment Strategy
Reduction Strategy
Sequestering CO2
Reducing Ecological Footprint
Settling Priorities
Summary: Management Options
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Options for Natural Resource Management under a Changing Climate
Linda Joyce, Ph. D.
Rocky Mountain Research Station
February 22, 2007 at the Forest Service Intermountain Regional Integrated Resource Workshop, Ogden, UT.
34 min 22 sec |
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Acknowledgements
In the Past,
Usual Cast of Characters
Observers of the Natural World
What Have Natural Resource Managers Been Doing
Assessment
Monitoring
Planning and Policy
On-the-Ground Movement
Past and Current Management Activities
Synthesis of Observations, Experiments, Models
Climate Change 2007
Additional IPCC Reports
Adaptiation in Human Systems
Broad Categories
Unplanned Response to Climate Change
Assumptions in Current Management Premises
Planned Reaction to Changing Disturbances
Altered Disturbance Regimes
Precipitation Patterns Are Changing
Earlier Onset of Spring Snowmelt and Less Snowpack
Anticipatory, proactively respond to climate changes
Reframing Management Strategies
Create and Increase Resistance
Create Resilience
Respond to Climate Influences
Expand Genetic Diversity Guidelines
Use Redundancy
Realign Conditions to Current Dynamics
Mitigation |
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Climate Change, Uncertainty and Forecasts of Global to Landscape Ecosystem Dynamics
Ronald P. Neilson, Ph. D.
February 22, 2007 at the Forest Service Intermountain Regional Integrated Resource Workshop, Ogden, UT.
40 min 40 sec |
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Climate Change, Uncertainty and ...
Future Climate
Simulated Historical Vegetation
Simulated Annual Global Mean
Assessments of Future Climate
The Earth's Surface Temperature
The Low End of Some Models
The Uncertainties are Often
Global Assessments
Uncertainties are Often
LPJ DGVM Risk Analysis
Fire Increases Across the Western
What will happen to Timber
New Simulated Vegetation Type
Can Species Keep Up with Climate
Future Climate Managing for Change
Where is all the Excess Wood
Water-limited Carrying Capacity
Observed and Simulated Fire Area
Average Biomass Burned Historical
Average Biomass Burned Future
16 Climate Scenarios
Water Resources
Current Vegetation (1961-1990)
Eastern Deciduous Forest
Future Woody and Grass Expansion
Community Diversity
Species Migration
Change with Uncertainty
San Francisco Peaks
4 Months Later
A California Assessment
Three Future Scenarios
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Change in Annual Area Burned
Interdecadal Climate Variability
Glacier National Park
Management Toolbox
Management Implications |
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Holocene Climate Variation and Drought in the Great Basic: Impacts on Past, Present, and Future Vegetation
Robin J. Tausch, Ph. D.
February 22, 2007 at the Forest Service Intermountain Regional Integrated Resource Workshop, Ogden, UT.
17 min 16 sec |
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Holocene Climate Variation and Drought
Hocene CO2 and Temp. Variation
Holocene Great Basin Lakes
Modern Intact Woodrat Midden
Exposed Fossil Midden
Large Midden, Clan Alpine Mtns.
Recent and Older Midden Samples
Sieving dissolved Midden Sample
Sorting Midden Plant Materials
Toiyabe Mtns. Midden Area
Topo Map of Midden Sites
Big Creek Midden Site
Upper Birch Creek Midden Site
macrofossil taxa at each location
Cluster Dendrogram Midden Samples
Mid-Holocene Dry Periods
Tree Trunk in Lake Tahoe
Mid-Holocene Wet Period
Sampling a Toiyabe Mtns. Meadow
Core Sampling for Pollen
Neoglacial Wet Period
Slope Stability, Soil Formation
Post-Neoglacial Drought
Slope Instability and Deposition
Deposited Alluvial Fan
Medieval Warm Period
Little Ice Age
Post-Little Ice Age Variation
Post-Little Ice Age Erosion
Head Cut - 1994
Head Cut 1998
Incised meadow 2002
Total Taxa by C14 Age
Elevation Limits of Key Plant Species
Macrofossil taxa by Plant Form
Drought Monitor Example Map |
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Impacts and Uncertainties of Climate Change on Stream Habitats and Fish Communities
Dan Isaak, Ph. D.
February 22, 2007 at the Forest Service Intermountain Regional Integrated Resource Workshop, Ogden, UT.
27 min 49 sec |
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Impacts and Uncertainties of Climate Change on Stream Habitats and Fish Communities
Talk Outline
Earth Surface Temperature Variations for...
The Past 650,000 Years
Projected by 2050
Species Phenologies and Distribution are Shifting
Western US - Observed Patterns
Total Winter Precipitation
Declining Spring Snowpack
Earlier Stream Runoff
Increasing Fire Severity
Predicted Temperature Increases
Western Landscapes are Highly Dynamic...
Sediment Regimes - Fire Effects
Pine Beetle Die-offs
Hydrologic Regimes - Altered Peak Flow
Altered Peak Flows
Decreasing Baseflows
Thermal Regimes
Boise River Basin
How Will Species React?
Spatial Structure and Life History Diversity
Temporal Structure
Remnant Populations and Fragmented Stream Networks
Linking Climate Change and Fish
Prospective Analysis
What If Games
Upper End Projection
Non-uniform Spatial Response
Mechanistic Modeling Approaches
How Will Global Change Affect...
Biophysical Integration Needed
Contectual Prioritization
Where can Management Make a Difference
Vulnerability to Climate Change
Bolstering Resistence/Resilience
Spatial Structure
Spatial Structure
Connectivity
Diversity
Summary
US Forest Service RMRS |
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