Recovery Science Ongoing Projects
Lead Investigators: Paul McElhany, Katie Barnas
Timeline: October 2007 — October 2008
Collaborators: Michael Maher, Mindi Sheer, Jim Meyers, Jason Miller
In preparation for federally listed salmonid status review updates in 2010, the Northwest Fisheries Science Center and Northwest Regional Office are currently undertaking a pilot project explore how NWFSC can do the threats analysis to quantify risk to salmonid populations. To do this, we will prepare a "threats analysis packet" for an imaginary Biological Review Team meeting to evaluate the status of the Lower Columbia Chinook ESU. The BRT is tasked with evaluating whether the ESU/DPS is likely to go extinct. From the generation of this packet, we can evaluate what data are available, what analyses can be done, and how to create metrics for the Listing Factors similar to those for Viable Salmonid Populations. Further, using the threats analysis packets developed in the mock status review, we will develop a decision support system for assimilating the many types of threats/listing factor data and inherent assumptions into a transparent single decision tree framework for easier evaluation.
A major challenge comes in deciding how to treat severe uncertainty and lack of precise information in decision making. Differing approaches including decision support networks based on fuzzy logic and Bayesian probability. This project involves testing various methods of modeling risk while striving for transparency and documentable methods. A major goal is to develop a pilot risk model that can be later adapted for all recovery domains and used for future status reviews and status review updates.
Back to topLead Investigator: Shallin Busch
Timeline: April 2007–April 2009
Collaborators: Paul McElhany, Mary Ruckelshaus, Tom Cooney, Michelle McClure, Tom Wainwright, Pete Lawson, Brian Spence, Tommy Williams, David Boughton, Steve Lindley
It is widely recognized that abundance, productivity, spatial structure, and diversity all play a role in the viability of salmonid populations (McElhany et al. 2000). However, there are currently no standardized criteria for how each viability attribute should be measured. Viability criteria for listed salmonids along the West Coast were developed by eight different technical recovery teams (TRTs), and these criteria vary due to factors such as data availability and fish biology. Because of this variation, creating a comprehensive view of the status of listed salmonids is problematic. The goals of this project are to address why there are differences between the methods that the TRTs used, what those differences are, and what the differences mean. The first phase of the project is to summarize the viability criteria in a single document, giving precise descriptions of how each TRT treats a large number of issues. This summary will facilitate comparisons among the different criteria. The second phase of the project is to compare the abundance and productivity models used to evaluate viability. To assess if the various models give similar answers about population viability, data from listed ESUs in each domain will be run through all available models. In addition, simulated data with known persistence outcomes will also be run through the models to assess their accuracy at predicting the future. The final phase of the project is to evaluate the TRTs’ techniques for rolling the many metrics used to assess viability into one viability score. As a whole, this project will make the differences and similarities among the viability criteria apparent and will aid projects that span multiple TRTs. For more information contact Shallin Busch.
Viability criteria comparison essay and table (2008)
Back to topLead Investigator: Anne Mullan
Timeline: June 2007–June 2009
Collaborators: Mike Ford, Paul McElhany, Norma Sands, Robert Kope, Naomi Yoder, Mirek Kos, Ashley Steel, and Aimee Fullerton.
The Salmon Lifecycle Analysis Modules (SLAM) modeling framework was developed by researchers at the NWFSC, and the objective of this study is to investigate factors limiting recovery of listed salmonids using the SLAM framework. This flexible framework allows inputs at each life history stage to reflect habitat conditions, harvest, hatchery impacts, and marine conditions. For density-dependent transitions between stages, changes to habitat can be expressed as by changes in productivity or capacity. Simultaneously, harvest changes can be modeled, independently and for interactions with improved habitat. Abundance distributions at a future time point, one possible output, allow comparisons between different actions. In one preliminary case, simulations for the East Fork Lewis River Tule Chinook show that harvest reductions and habitat improvements combined provide greater population improvements than either would alone. Additional work on long-term development and restoration impacts on habitat, building on work by Aimee Fullerton and Ashley Steel, will provide useful comparisons of future and existing conditions. Introducing uncertainty, whether from annual variability or other model inputs and structure, will provide a more realistic range of outcomes. For more information on this project, please contact Anne Mullan, Anne.Mullan@noaa.gov
Back to topLead Investigator: Mindi Sheer
Timeline: December 2007–March 2008
Collaborators: Jeremy Davies, Damon Holzer, Shallin Busch, Mary Ruckleshaus, Michelle McClure, Paul McElhany
Back to toplast modified 09/04/2008