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Climate Change and Ocean Productivity

Climate Change and Ocean Productivity


Team Staff Directory



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Climate variation is recognized as a primary driver of ocean ecosystems and their associated biological resources. This is seen clearly along the Pacific Northwest coast, where fluctuations in fishery stocks (including salmon, Dungeness crab, Pacific hake, sardines, anchovies) and other species such as krill and smelt have been explained by climate patterns. Our team focuses on understanding climate-production relationships along the Oregon and Washington coasts, and using that understanding to predict production of coastal resources. We do this through a combination of fundamental research, long-term monitoring, and data synthesis. Through these studies, we expect to gain better understanding of the control of coastal resource production, make better predictions of resource status, and better assess the effects of human management on these systems. We currently have three main areas of research:

 

Zooplankton ecology and monitoring. The core activity of the zooplankton program is biweekly hydrography and plankton cruises conducted off Newport by Bill Peterson and his staff. These cruises were initiated in May 1996 and continue to present. On each cruise we measure hydrographic conditions and sample the zooplankton at stations ranging from 1 to 25 miles from shore. We set up incubations of living plankton for (a) euphausiid (krill) molting rates, (b) adult female euphausiid brood sizes, and (c) copepod egg production (Calanus marshallae, C. pacificus and others).

Copepod
Euphausiid
 
Coastal Region Surveys of the hydrography and zooplankton are also conducted along the WA and OR coasts in May, June and September as part of a study of habitat requirements of juvenile salmon (funded by the Bonneville Power Administration). Larger scale surveys from northern California to the northern tip of Washington coast are conducted as part of the PaCOOS ( The next link/button will exit from NWFSC web site  http://www.pacoos.org) program when we have access to larger oceanographic research vessels.
 
Ecosystem modeling and analysis. Our ability to predict biological changes resulting from climate change depends on understanding processes sufficiently to quantify relationships among the various parts of the ecosystem. We use two types of models to accomplish this. Statistical forecast models are used to estimate future conditions from past conditions, such as predicting salmon adult run sizes from spawner abundance and recent environmental conditions. Process models are used as research tools to test our understanding of ecosystem responses against real world data. We use biophysical models to relate plankton production to physical ocean circulations along the Oregon and Washington coasts. We also use full ecosystem models to track the ecological interactions from phytoplankton up to top predators (such as sharks, sea birds, and marine mammals).
 
Ocean indicators of salmon production. We use three sets of ecosystem indicators to aid in understanding the ecological interactions among juvenile salmon and their environment. The first set is based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the North Pacific Ocean, and consists of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation Index. The second set of indicators is based on local observations of physical and biological ocean conditions off Newport, Oregon. The third set is based on biological sampling of plankton, juvenile salmonids, forage fish, and Pacific hake off WA and OR as part of a Bonneville Power funded research program. From this combination of physical and biological indicators, we produce forecasts of adult salmon returns. For more details, click here to view a report on "Ocean conditions and salmon survival".
 

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last modified 11/14/2006

                   
   
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