A
Short Account of the Circumstances Attending the
Inception of Weather Forecast Work by the United States
Prepared by
Professor Cleveland Abbe
for presentation on April 17, 1916
Published in: Weather Bureau Topics and Personnel
April, 1916. Pages 1-3.
The
following short history of the beginnings of the United States
Weather Bureau was presented by Dr. C. F. Marvin, Chief of the
Weather Bureau, on the occasion of the presentation of the Marellus
Hartley medal for Eminence in the Application of Science to the
Public Welfare to Professor Cleveland Abbe. Professor Abbe was
not able to attend because of ill health but prepared the following
reminiscence of the early days of the Weather Bureau for presentation
at the awards ceremony:
"My boyhood
life in New York City has impressed me with the popular ignorance
and also with the great need of something better than local
lore and weather proverbs. The popular articles in the New York
daily papers by Merriam, Espy, Joseph Henry, and others -- notably
Redfield and Loomis -- had by 1857 convinced me that man could
and must overcome our ignorance of the destructive winds and
rains. It was in the summer of 1857 that I read the beginning
of the classic article by William Ferrel in the MATHEMATICAL
MONTHLY. I realized that he had overcome many of the hidden
difficulties of the theories of storms and winds. From that
day he was my guide and authority. During 1859-1864, in the
practice and study of astronomy with Brunow at Ann Arbor and
Gould at Cambridge, Mass., I was impressed with the unsatisfactory
state of our knowledge of atmospheric refraction. Two years
later, my experience at Poulkova, Russia, and at our Naval Observatory,
Washington, seemed to justify my conclusion that astronomers
who would improve their meridional measurements must investigate
their local atmospheric conditions more thoroughly, and to this
end must have numerous surrounding meteorological observations.
In my inaugural address at Cincinnati on May 1, 1868, I stated
that with a proper system of weather reports much could be done
for the welfare of man, and astronomy also could be benefited.
"This suggestion
was taken up by Mr. John Gano, president of the local chamber
of commerce; a committee met me, approved my plans and promised
the expenses of a first trial. I had the total solar eclipse
of August 7, 1869, on my hands, but immediately began to arrange
for 40 voluntary meteorological correspondents. On my return
from the eclipse at Sioux Falls City I stopped at Chicago and
formally invited the Chicago Board of Trade to join in extending
the Cincinnati system to the Great Lakes, but this invitation
was declined by the Chicago Board of Trade. An editorial in
a Chicago evening paper of Monday, August 16, 1869, stated the
scientific basis of our observatory work. I returned at once
to Cincinnati, issued the first number of the CINCINNATI WEATHER
BULLETIN promptly, as promised, on September 1, 1869; it contained
only a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and
announced `probabilities' for the next day. This bulletin, in
my own handwriting, was posted prominently in the hall of the
Chamber, but unfortunately I had misspelled 'Tuesday', and I
soon found below my probabilities the following humorous lines
by Mr. Davis, the well-known packer: 'A bad spell of weather
for 'Old Probs.' This established my future very popular name
of 'Old Probs.'
"My forecasts
were treated very kindly by all. I had anticipated a slow increase
in accuracy; I ventured to write my father in New York City;
`I have started that which the country will not let willingly
die.' I wrote a short note to the NEW YORK TIMES (or TRIBUNE)
telling them how useful we could be to their shipping. On September
3, 1869, I even ventured to offer a daily telegram by the French
cable to Le Verrier, as founder of the `BULLETIN HEBDOMADAIRE
DE L'ASSOCIATION SCIENTIFIQUE,' and who could fully sympathize
with my hopes and plans. He realized the breakers ahead of me
better than I. My daily telegram from Milwaukee came from the
well-known Smithsonian observer and author, Prof. Increase Allen
Lapham. He had known and appreciated the works of Espy, Redfield,
Loomis, and others, and although he had become absorbed in other
studies he urged the local Milwaukee society to do something
for Lake Michigan. His friends were just about to go to the
Richmond meeting of the National Board of Trade; there they
met William Hopper and John A. Gano. These merchants of Cincinnati
found that they had the same idea as H.E. Paine of Milwaukee,
i.e., that the Federal Government should develop the Cincinnati
enterprise and make it useful to the whole country. The National
Board of Trade endorsed this idea; Professor Lapham of Milwaukee
drew up some statistics of storms and destructions on the Lake;
the Hon. Halbert E. Paine prepared a bill; each put his shoulders
to the wheel, and behold, on February 9, 1870, the Secretary
of War was authorized to carry out this new duty. I had spent
a year in finding stations, voluntary observers, and telegraph
facilities; every old classmate or friend of progressive meteorology
had helped the new idea. The work had now, as I supposed, passed
out of my hands, but there was in reality much more for me to
do. A letter from the Chief Signal Officer, U. S. A., Gen. Albert
J. Myer, asked for all possible cooperation. The officials of
the Western Union Telegraph Company offered the Observatory
the same free daily weather reports that they had for 20 years
been giving to the Smithsonian Institution and the daily press;
so I continued temporarily to make and publish the Cincinnati
Bulletin, but in a much simpler form and without forecasts.
This continued until May 10, 1870, when I was married, and the
preparation of the midnight bulletin passed over to the officials
of the local telegraph office. It was continued in this shape
until November, 1870, when the tri-daily bulletins of the Army
Signal Service began. With the help of Mr. Williams,who was
in charge of the Western Union office, I printed in October,
1869, a code of cipher, and should have used this code for economy
had not the law of February 9, 1870, rendered further reports
by my own stations unnecessary. This code was subsequently greatly
improved by Weather Bureau men, and particularly by Gen. A.
W. Greely, and it is still in use.
"The manifold
duplicate copies and the printed copies of the daily Cincinnati
Observatory Bulletin were distributed until the Chamber of Commerce
no longer needed to support it, then Mr. Williams devised a
simple form of manifold map that was a great improvement on
my original tabular form of daily reports. This map was soon
adopted by the Signal Service, but was itself displaced in turn
by the present handsome daily lithographed chart. Without the
help of Armstrong and Williams and the new manifold method we
could not have promptly responded to the needs of our friends.
By November, 1870, I had gone to New York and prepared to go
as astronomer on one of the Panama canal surveys, but I gave
this up and should have returned soon to Cincinnati had I not,
in December, received a letter from General Myer stating that
he wished to see me. My work with him in the Weather Bureau
of the Army Signal Service began January 3, 1871. After a month's
practise it was decided that my forecast would evidently more
than fill the popular expectations, and tri-daily publications
began at once. The term `probabilities' then became official,
as it had begun in October, 1869, and in those days it was appropriate;
but we have long since substituted the word `forecast.'
"The subsequent
development of the service under Generals Myer, Hazen, Greely,
and Professors Harrington, Moore, and Marvin, may be gathered
from their special or annual reports. The service has been greatly
favored by the hearty cooperation of many men of knowledge,
skill, and enthusiasm."