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Temperature and Precipitation Forecasts
General - The temperature and precipitation forecasts are produced from a number of sources and is a mix of forecaster and model predictions. All forecasts are point forecasts.Users of these products should consider the uncertainty of each forecast. Predictions farther out in time reflect merely trends and can change considerably from one day to the next. Forecast values represent those inputs used in the hydrologic models at the Northwest River Forecast Center.
Temperature - Temperatures forecasts provided daily maximum and minimum temperatures at selected points in the Pacific Northwest. Ten days of temperature forecasts are made using the Model Output Statistics (MOS) product. MOS is a statistical regression technique relating model fields in the Aviation forecast model (AVN) with surface temperatures. Review is made locally, allowing for further adjustments.
Precipitation - The first three days of precipitation forecasts are produced by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), at the Heavy Precipitation Center (HPC). Precipitation forecasts are provided on a six hourly time scale for specific sites throughout the Pacific Northwest. A review of these forecasts are made by the NWRFC Hydrometeorologist Analysis Section (HAS) allowing for modifications. Precipitation forecasts for days 4 through 10 are derived directly from the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) meteorological model.
Freezing Level - Three days of freezing level are produced from the MRF model at a twelve hour time step. Forecast are also reviewed.
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| US Dept of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) 5241 NE 122nd Avenue Portland, Oregon 97230-1089 Telephone: 503-326-7401 Last Modified: November 29, 2005 | Disclaimer Information Quality Credits Glossary Search | Privacy Policy Freedom of Information Act About Us Career Opportunities |