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HPC Verification
Jump To
Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts
How Threat Scores and Bias are Computed
24-Hourly QPF's
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Threat Scores
and Observed Areal Coverage;
Annual HPC Day-1 / Day-2 / Day-3 Bias
Annual HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
1993-2007
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (.50", 1.00", 2.00")
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons (Day 1 / Day 2 / Day 3)
August 2007 to August 2008
6-Hourly QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Update
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 1
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 2
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores
Day 3
August 2007 to August 2008
HPC vs. NWP Guidance - Threat Scores
September 2007 to August 2008
Days 4-5 QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00"
August 2007 to August 2008
5-Day Total QPF's
Monthly HPC vs. NWP Guidance Threat Scores and Bias
August 2007 to August 2008
Monthly HPC Threat Score and Bias Comparisons
.50", 1.00", 2.00", 3.00", 4.00"
August 2007 to August 2008
Medium-Range Forecasts
Overview of data plotted on annual charts
Minimum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2007)
Monthly Performance Charts (August 2007 - August 2008)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-August 2008)
Maximum Temperatures
Annual Mean Absolute Error (MAE) Charts (1972 - 2007)
Monthly Performance Charts (August 2007 - August 2008)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart (January-August 2008)
Probability of Precipitation (PoP)
Monthly Performance Charts - 24-Hour PoP (August 2007 - August 2007)
Year-to-Date Performance Chart - 24-Hour PoP (January-August 2008)
Monthly Performance Charts - 12-Hour PoP (August 2007 - August 2008)
HPC Gridded Medium-Range Forecasts
How grids are verified
Monthly Performance Charts (August 2008)
Note: MAE = Mean Absolute Error
Forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Minimum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Maximum Temperature (Days 4-7)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD 12-Hour PoP (Days 4-7)
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Brier Score
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Products derived from forecasts prepared by HPC meteorologists
MOS/HPC/NDFD Dew Point Temperature (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Speed (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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MOS/HPC/NDFD Wind Direction (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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HPC/NDFD Cloud Cover (valid every 6 hours from F90-F180)
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MAE
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Bias
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Mean Sea Level Pressure (PMSL)
HPC -vs- Guidance Anomaly Correlations
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