Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160606
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W S OF 13N MOVING W 
NEAR 10 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF 
THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYERED 
MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY MIMIC-TPW ANIMATION. 850 MB DERIVED 
VORTICITY ALSO SUPPORTS THE POSITION OF THE WAVE/LOW. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 06N-21N 
BETWEEN 48W-57W.  

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS 
WAVE IS WELL DEPICTED IN THE MOISTURE PRODUCT...AND SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS.  THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 72W-74W...AND 
OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 72W-75W. 

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 
KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF HONDURAS FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 81W-84W... OVER W 
HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 86W-89W...AND OVER THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 88W-91W. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 08N40W 11N57W 10N62W. BESIDES 
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA 
FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 13W-23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-10N BETWEEN 47W-51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 50W-52W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A 1014 
MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS NEAR 26N96W. A COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO NE MEXICO ALONG 23N97W 24N100W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO  
FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 94W-98W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR 24N98W...WHICH 
DOMINATES THE W GULF W OF 90W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS 
CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  EXPECT... 
LIGHT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS THE FRONT SLOWLY 
DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...EXPECT AIRMASS 
CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE 
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE. FRESH 
SURFACE EASTERLIES DOMINATE MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER 
PANAMA FROM 6N-09N BETWEEN 77W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO 
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...NORTH OF 14N AND EAST OF 67W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA 
NEAR 17N84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE LEEWARD 
ISLANDS NEAR 18N64W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N AND E OF 
65W. EXPECT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT AIRMASS CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 
1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N58W. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N64W 27N70W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 
1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N33W. A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N58W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND 
W OF 70W. THREE UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
AT 32N59W...23N56W...AND AT 27N44W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS 
CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W. EXPECT THE 
TROPICAL WAVES TO PROPAGATE WEST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA