Appendix 3: Li-ion Batteries: Market Trends

In the 1990s, sales of Li-ion systems experienced an annual average growth rate of 15 percent or more. This rate slowed during the 2000 to 2001 time period. Current forecasts call for the Li-ion segment to grow between 5 percent and 10 per year in unit sales, but it is expected to show little growth in value during the first decade of the new century. Figure A3.1 summarizes production trends for Li-ion batteries, as assessed by Cambridge, MA-based Tiax.

As shown in Figure A3.2, prices for cylindrical cells have declined considerably over the past ten years. At their introduction, Li-ion cells sold for almost $4 per watt-hour (Wh). By 1995, the price had fallen to the range of $1.50 to $2.00/Wh. The pricing had some differentiation between cylindrical, prismatic, and polymer cell constructions, with polymer and prismatic cells commanding a higher price. As the production volume grew and competition increased, production exceeded demand and the selling price for cells decreased dramatically. The prismatic and polymer systems have maintained somewhat higher price levels than the 18650 cell, which is an industry standard used for comparison purposes.

Source: Institute of Information Technology, Ltd. Japan . 2002.

Since their introduction in 1999, Li-ion polymer cells have demanded a higher price than other rechargeable batteries. The perceived value and lighter weight of the polymer electrolyte, give the Li-ion polymer cells greater commercial value. Initially, production costs were higher for Li-ion batteries, as they required new production equipment, whereas

Ni-MH batteries could be produced using the same equipment as that used for Ni-Cd batteries. Prices will soon drop for Li-ion polymer cells, however, following trends that applied for Li-ion cells. Because the chemistry is the same, the energy storage capability is the same for Li-ion polymer and Li-ion technologies. The Li-ion polymer cell uses a soft pack-aging that is lighter and lower in cost. With time, both Li-ion and Li-ion polymer cells should approach the same selling price, with Li-ion polymer cells having an edge due to lower packaging costs.

Li-ion battery sales growth stalled in 2001, with global Li-ion battery production growing only 3.7 percent to 560 million units, and falling by 11.1 percent in value to 336 billion yen due to lower prices (as reported by Japan-based market research firm Chunichisha). Unit production did not grow at a double-digit rate due to weak demand from mobile phones, which account for 50 percent of the Li-ion battery use. Note that these data are not consistent with Figure 3.1. This may be because Chunichisha missed the increased production vol-ume in China and South Korea by 2002. In addition, prices fell as low as 500 yen for a 18650 size cell during the second half of 2001, and prices are facing further pressure from low-priced products from China and South Korea and down-stream electronics assemblers.

Figure A3.3 shows the distribution of the rechargeable markets by each use.

Source: Institute of Information Technology, Ltd. Japan. 2002.

Return to Table of Contents or go to next section.

Date created: July 21, 2005
Last updated: August 4, 2005

ATP website comments: webmaster-atp@nist.gov  / Technical ATP inquiries: InfoCoord.ATP@nist.gov.

NIST is an agency of the U.S. Commerce Department
Privacy policy / Security Notice / Accessibility Statement / Disclaimer / Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) /
No Fear Act Policy / NIST Information Quallity Standards / ExpectMore.gov (performance of federal programs)