Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections
This file represents Table 1. Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016, in
"The U.S. Economy to 2016: slower growth as boomers begin to retire," published in the November 2007 Monthly
Labor Review.
Table 1. Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016
Exogenous variables |
Billions of chained 2000 dollars (unless noted) |
Average annual rate of change |
1986 |
1996 |
2006 |
2016 |
1986- 96 |
1996- 2006 |
2006- 16 |
Monetary policy-related: |
Federal funds rate (percent) |
6.81 |
5.30 |
4.96 |
5.15 |
-2.5 |
-0.7 |
0.4 |
Excess reserves (billions of current dollars) |
0.89 |
1.09 |
1.62 |
2.49 |
2.1 |
4.0 |
4.4 |
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent) |
5.98 |
5.01 |
4.73 |
4.79 |
-1.8 |
-0.6 |
0.1 |
Yields on ten-year Treasury notes (percent) |
7.68 |
6.44 |
4.79 |
5.63 |
-1.8 |
-2.9 |
1.6 |
|
Fiscal policy, tax-related: |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages and salaries (percent) |
25.9 |
22.5 |
21.4 |
21.4 |
-1.4 |
-0.5 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest income (percent) |
25.7 |
24.3 |
23.0 |
23.0 |
-0.6 |
-0.6 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend income (percent) |
34.3 |
27.8 |
22.5 |
22.5 |
-2.1 |
-2.1 |
0.0 |
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital gains (percent) |
40.0 |
25.7 |
15.0 |
15.0 |
-4.3 |
-5.2 |
0.0 |
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent) |
46.0 |
35.0 |
35.0 |
35.0 |
-2.7 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
|
Fiscal policy, Government outlays-related: |
Defense intermediate goods and services purchased |
147.0 |
120.3 |
209.7 |
239.9 |
-2.0 |
5.7 |
1.4 |
Defense gross investment |
69.5 |
51.3 |
76.6 |
94.2 |
-3.0 |
4.1 |
2.1 |
Nondefense intermediate goods and services purchased |
53.1 |
61.0 |
96.5 |
104.7 |
1.4 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
Nondefense gross investment |
19.3 |
28.6 |
38.5 |
37.9 |
4.0 |
3.0 |
-0.2 |
Federal grants-in-aid, Medicaid and other (billions of current dollars) |
87.6 |
191.1 |
358.5 |
588.5 |
8.1 |
6.5 |
5.1 |
Federal transfer payments, Medicare (billions of current dollars) |
75.3 |
195.7 |
393.8 |
900.0 |
10.0 |
7.2 |
8.6 |
|
Energy-related: |
Refiners' acquisition cost of imported oil (nominal dollars per barrel) |
14.3 |
20.6 |
58.9 |
55.2 |
3.7 |
11.1 |
-0.6 |
Domestic share of U.S. crude oil acquisitions (as percentage of total acquisitions) |
67.5 |
46.3 |
33.6 |
35.8 |
-3.7 |
-3.2 |
0.7 |
Domestic oil product |
37.8 |
32.1 |
29.1 |
26.3 |
-1.6 |
-1.0 |
-1.0 |
|
Demographic-related: |
Total population including overseas Armed Forces (in millions) |
240.4 |
269.8 |
300.4 |
327.0 |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.9 |
Population aged 16 and over (in millions) |
180.6 |
200.6 |
228.8 |
250.6 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
0.9 |
SOURCE: Historical data, Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Census Bureau; projected data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, and U.S. Census Bureau.
|
Back to top
Last Modified Date: December 27, 2007
|