New England High Resolution Temperature Program
Field Program July 1 - August 31, 2003
Objectives
- To quantify improvements in the forecasting of temperature
in the New England region which results from new and augmented
observations and modeling.
- To assess the benefits of better predictive capabilities to the energy sector.
- To provide a pathway to operational high-resolution temperature forecasting.
New Observations
Because temperature at ground level is strongly
influenced by the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and
observations of the ABL are very limited,
ETL is providing critical
observations in the layer between the ground and about 3 km
altitude. The key tools are remote sensors that continually monitor
winds and ABL depth (wind profilers), temperature (RASS), aerosol optical
depth, and
cloud base (ceilometers), as well as surface meteorology measurements
including solar and net radiation.
ETL will operate a network of boundary layer radar wind profilers to
provide more detailed observations of the horizontal and vertical
distribution of winds, temperature, and boundary-layer characteristics.
Data from this network and other agency wind profilers will be available
to operational weather forecasters as it is collected and can be
viewed at
ABL Profiler Network.
These data will also be used to evaluate research and operational
mesoscale numerical models. Realtime comparison of observations
and model forecasts can be viewed at
Model Verification. The models being
evaluated include the GFS, Eta, NMM, RUC and WRF.
Evaluation and Verification of Model Forecasts
Data from the wind profiler network as well as 8 surface meteorology
"energy sites" will be used to
assess the accuracy of research and operational
model forecasts. Evaluation will emphasize
parameters that are the basis for decision-making in the energy
industry. This analysis will examine the potential role of
regional observing networks in improving local temperature
forecasts and provide quantitative assessment of
model performance.
Forecaster Evaluation
Strengthening connections between the operational and research communities,
ETL is working with operational forecasters to assess the benefits of
the new observations and modeling in the operational weather forecasting
environment. Training
held prior to the experimental period introduced new products, while
evaluation forms provided in conjunction with prototype operational data
will allow
forecasters to provide feedback on these new products.
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