Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook
September 4, 2008
Below is our latest Long Range Probabilistic River Outlook. We usually update the outlook around the 1st of the month and more often if necessary.
This outlook includes both exceedance and non exceedance probability information. Exceedance probabilities address the chances that a river will rise above a certain stage, including flood stage. Non exceedance probabilities address the chances that a river will fall below a certain stage.
This outlook is part of our Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Services (AHPS). AHPS is a suite of both long and short term river forecast information. To see more AHPS forecasts click on the appropriate links on the left hand menu.
FGUS73 KDVN 031515
ESFDVN
IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-301515-
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1015 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2008
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES /AHPS/ ENABLES THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE /NWS/ TO PROVIDE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC
RIVER OUTLOOKS...
ALL STAGES ARE IN FEET.
THIS OUTLOOK SHOWS THE PERCENTAGE CHANCES OF AREA RIVERS RISING
ABOVE AND FALLING BELOW VARIOUS STAGES OVER THE NEXT 90 DAYS. THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE CALLED EXCEEDANCE AND NON EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
RESPECTIVELY.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES NORMALLY ISSUES THIS
OUTLOOK ONCE EACH MONTH AROUND THE FIRST OF THE MONTH.
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES /THE CHANCES OF THE RIVER RISING ABOVE THE
LISTED STAGE LEVELS/ FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE NON
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES /THE CHANCES OF THE RIVER FALLING BELOW THE
LISTED STAGE LEVELS/ FOR THE NEXT 90 DAYS.
...HERE ARE SOME EXAMPLES USING THE TABLES BELOW...
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ROCK ISLAND LD15 HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15.0
FT. TABLE 1 INDICATES THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL
RISE ABOVE 10.1 FT.
ALSO...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR RAPIDS HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12.0 FT.
TABLE 2 INDICATES THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL
BELOW 4.5 FT.
...TABLE 1--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID SEP. 01 2008 - NOV. 30 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11 16 4.7 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.9 7.6 8.6 9.6 11.1
DUBUQUE 17 7.7 7.9 8.3 8.7 9.3 9.9 10.7 11.5 12.8
BELLEVUE LD12 17 4.3 4.9 6.0 6.9 7.8 8.5 9.4 10.2 11.5
FULTON LD13 16 4.6 5.0 6.2 6.7 7.7 8.7 9.3 10.4 12.8
CAMANCHE 17 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.6 10.2 11.0 11.4 12.1 13.8
LE CLAIRE LD14 11 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.4 7.8 9.0
ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 4.9 5.6 6.2 6.9 8.4 9.2 10.1 10.8 12.5
ILL. CITY LD16 15 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.6 7.8 8.7 10.0 12.5
MUSCATINE 16 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.3 8.3 9.6 10.5 11.6 13.7
NEW BOSTON LD17 15 4.0 4.7 5.3 6.0 7.4 9.0 10.3 11.9 13.8
KEITHSBURG 14 5.9 6.5 7.0 8.1 9.3 10.3 10.9 12.2 12.6
GLADSTONE LD18 10 1.6 2.2 2.6 3.4 4.5 5.7 6.4 8.1 8.7
BURLINGTON 15 8.1 8.4 8.6 9.5 10.4 11.2 11.8 13.2 13.6
KEOKUK LD19 16 3.7 4.3 4.7 5.5 6.2 7.4 8.3 10.0 11.0
GREGORY LANDING 15 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.0 8.2 9.5 11.0 12.0 13.5
...IOWA RIVERS...
MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 4.3 4.7 4.9 5.9 6.3 7.1 7.6 8.7 11.6
MAQUOKETA 24 12.1 13.5 15.2 15.4 16.8 18.2 19.9 21.3 25.0
WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE 12 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.3 6.6 7.1 9.0
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 5.8 6.7 7.1 7.9 8.8 9.8 11.3 12.3 15.5
DE WITT 11 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.3 10.1 10.7 11.6 12.6
CEDAR RIVER
VINTON 15 3.6 4.7 5.6 6.4 6.9 7.4 8.4 10.3 11.8
CEDAR RAPIDS 12 4.8 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.4 6.7 7.3 8.7 9.7
CONESVILLE 13 6.7 7.4 8.4 9.2 10.1 11.3 12.3 12.8 14.3
IOWA RIVER
MARENGO 14 7.5 8.9 9.9 11.1 11.7 13.1 14.1 15.8 16.6
IOWA CITY 22 11.4 12.5 13.3 14.0 14.8 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.2
LONE TREE 15 6.7 8.1 8.8 9.4 10.2 11.3 12.7 13.0 15.6
COLUMBUS JCT 19 10.4 11.5 12.7 13.2 14.4 15.9 16.9 17.7 20.9
WAPELLO 20 12.0 13.0 14.2 14.9 16.4 17.9 19.1 19.7 22.8
ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA 14 4.3 5.3 6.8 7.5 8.6 10.1 11.7 12.7 16.4
NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY 16 5.3 7.4 9.1 10.7 12.6 14.4 15.8 17.6 19.5
SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA 15 3.3 4.2 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.8 11.7 13.2 15.8
DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA 22 10.9 12.0 12.6 13.2 13.6 15.1 15.3 16.9 19.9
ST FRANCISVILLE 18 8.8 9.6 10.1 11.2 11.7 13.7 14.0 16.3 19.3
...ILLINOIS RIVERS...
PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT 13 5.3 6.4 6.9 8.2 9.4 10.4 13.2 13.7 14.6
ROCK RIVER
COMO 10 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.8 6.7 8.7
JOSLIN 12 5.9 6.3 6.7 7.9 8.6 9.6 10.1 12.1 14.1
MOLINE 12 8.4 8.5 8.8 9.2 9.6 10.1 10.4 11.4 13.1
GREEN RIVER
GENESEO 15 5.0 5.3 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.4 8.9 10.3 14.4
LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR 20 5.6 7.3 9.0 10.4 12.7 16.2 18.6 20.8 22.6
ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE 20 11.4 11.7 12.1 13.0 13.8 14.6 16.5 19.2 22.6
HENRY 23 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.6 17.6 21.0 23.9
--NOTE...LA SALLE IS IN THE NWS CHICAGO IL SERVICE AREA.
HENRY IS IN THE NWS LINCOLN IL SERVICE AREA.
...MISSOURI RIVERS...
FOX RIVER
WAYLAND 15 1.8 2.6 3.3 4.2 5.2 6.1 9.2 13.0 15.9
...TABLE 2--NON EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID SEP. 01 2008 - NOV. 30 2008
LOCATION FS 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10%
-------- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DUBUQUE LD11 16 4.1 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4
DUBUQUE 17 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0
BELLEVUE LD12 17 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
FULTON LD13 16 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
CAMANCHE 17 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6
LE CLAIRE LD14 11 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7
ILL. CITY LD16 15 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2
MUSCATINE 16 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6
NEW BOSTON LD17 15 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9
KEITHSBURG 14 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2
GLADSTONE LD18 10 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7
BURLINGTON 15 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.2
KEOKUK LD19 16 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
GREGORY LANDING 15 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2
...IOWA RIVERS...
MAQUOKETA RIVER
MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7
MAQUOKETA 24 11.6 11.5 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.2
WAPSIPINICON RIVER
INDEPENDENCE 12 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7
ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.1
DE WITT 11 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.2
CEDAR RIVER
VINTON 15 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
CEDAR RAPIDS 12 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
CONESVILLE 13 6.0 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2
IOWA RIVER
MARENGO 14 6.8 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1
IOWA CITY 22 10.6 10.3 9.8 9.1 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.2
LONE TREE 15 5.6 5.2 4.8 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7
COLUMBUS JCT 19 9.6 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.7
WAPELLO 20 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.2
ENGLISH RIVER
KALONA 14 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2
NORTH SKUNK RIVER
SIGOURNEY 16 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
SKUNK RIVER
AUGUSTA 15 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
DES MOINES RIVER
KEOSAUQUA 22 9.9 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0
ST FRANCISVILLE 18 7.1 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5
...ILLINOIS RIVERS...
PECATONICA RIVER
FREEPORT 13 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3
ROCK RIVER
COMO 10 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
JOSLIN 12 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.6
MOLINE 12 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.0 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.8
GREEN RIVER
GENESEO 15 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6
LA MOINE RIVER
COLMAR 20 2.8 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0
ILLINOIS RIVER
LA SALLE 20 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6
HENRY 23 14.3 14.2 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.1
--NOTE...LA SALLE IS IN THE NWS CHICAGO IL SERVICE AREA.
HENRY IS IN THE NWS LINCOLN IL SERVICE AREA.
...MISSOURI RIVERS...
FOX RIVER
WAYLAND 15 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS NUMBERS THAT ARE
CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA. THESE NUMBERS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT
CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SNOW COVER AND SOIL MOISTURE...AS WELL AS
30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.
BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILISTIC NUMBERS...THE
LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE
DETERMINED. THIS PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION IS PART OF THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE/S AHPS SUITE.
ADDITIONAL RIVER AND WEATHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES .
$$
END/JAZ
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