Market Trends Energy Demand

78. The energy-intensive manufacturing sectors include food, paper, bulk chemicals, petroleum refining, glass, cement, steel, and aluminum.

79. This change in methodology is discussed in the Issues In Focus section, pages 44-46.

80. A Divisia index is used for this calculation. A discussion of the index can be found in G. Boyd, J.F. McDonald, M. Ross, and D.A. Hansont, “Separating the Changing Composition of U.S. Manufacturing Production from Energy Efficiency Improvements: A DivisiaIndex Approach,” Energy Journal, Vol. 8, No. 2 (1987).

81. S.C. Davis and S.W. Diegel, Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 25, ORNL-6974 (Oak Ridge, TN, May 2006), Chapter 4, “Light Vehicles and Characteristics,” web site http://cta.ornl.gov/data/chapter4.shtml.

82. The fuel shares are calculated in terms of energy content. Because of the differences in energy content per gallon of gasoline, diesel, and ethanol, the percentage share would be different on a volumetric basis. For example, it takes about 1.3 gallons of E85 to replace the energy in 1 gallon of gasoline.

83. Unless otherwise noted, the term “capacity” in the discussion of electricity generation indicates utility, nonutility, and CHP capacity. Costs reflect the average of regional costs, except for wind, which uses a representative region.

84. Does not include off-grid PV. Based on annual PV shipments from 1989 through 2005, EIA estimates that as much as 192 megawatts of remote electricity generation PV applications (i.e., off-grid power systems) were in service in 2005, plus an additional 481 megawatts in communications, transportation, and assorted other non-grid-connected, specialized applications. See Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Review 2006, DOE/EIA-0384(2006) (Washington, DC, June 2007), Table 10.8 (annual PV shipments, 1989- 2005). The approach used to develop the estimate, based on shipment data, provides an upper estimate of the size of the PV stock, including both grid-based and off-grid PV. It will overestimate the size of the stock, because shipments include a substantial number of units that are exported, and each year some of the PV units installed earlier will be retired from service or abandoned.

85. Previous AEOs did not consider State RPS requirements.

86. Wind capacity is more than double the 2030 level projectedin AEO2007.

87. Imperial Oil Resources Ventures, Ltd., “MackenzieGas Project: Supplemental Information Project Update,”National Energy Board Submission IPRCC. PR.07.08 (Calgary, Alberta, Canada, May 2007).

88. CAIR mandates SO2 emissions caps in 28 eastern andmidwestern States and the District of Columbia. Thefirst compliance period begins in 2010, and a second, more stringent cap takes effect in 2015.

89. The first milestone for reducing NOx emissions from electric power generation becomes effective in 2009. Alower limit is mandated for 2015.