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HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan- Part 1: Strategic Plan

 

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Visit PandemicFlu.gov for one-stop access to U.S. Government avian and pandemic flu information. HHS is responsible for Pandemic Influenza Planning, outlined below.

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Table of Contents

The Pandemic Influenza Threat

Influenza A viruses have infected many different animals including ducks, chickens, pigs, whales, horses, and seals.  Influenza A viruses normally seen in one species can sometimes cross over and cause illness in another species.  This creates the possibility that a new virus will develop, either through mutation or mixing of individual viruses, in turn creating the possibility for new viral strains that can be highly infective, readily transmissible, and highly lethal in humans.  When a pandemic virus strain emerges, 25% to 35% of the population could develop clinical disease, and a substantial fraction of these individuals could die.  The direct and indirect health costs alone (not including disruptions in trade and other costs to business and industry) have been estimated to approach $181 billion for a moderate pandemic (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) with no interventions.  Faced with such a threat, the U.S. and its international partners will need to respond quickly and forcefully to reduce the scope and magnitude of the potentially catastrophic consequences.

Such a threat currently exists in the form of the H5N1 virus, which is spreading widely and rapidly in domestic and migratory fowl across Asia and Europe.  As of October 2005, this strain has infected more than 115 humans, killing approximately 50% of those known to be infected.  The virus is now endemic in many bird species so that elimination of the virus is not feasible.  If this virus mutates in such a way that it becomes capable of spreading efficiently from person to person, the feared pandemic could become a reality.  (Additional background information is provided in Appendix B.)   

Emergence of a human influenza virus with pandemic potential presents a formidable response challenge.  If such a strain emerged in one or a few isolated communities abroad or within the U.S. and was detected quickly, containment of the outbreak(s), though very difficult, might be feasible, thereby preventing or significantly retarding the spread of disease to other communities.  Containment attempts would require stringent infection-control measures such as bans on large public gatherings, isolation of symptomatic individuals, prophylaxis of the entire community with antiviral drugs, and various forms of movement restrictions—possibly even including a quarantine.

The resources required for such vigorous containment would almost certainly exceed those available in the affected community(ies).  Thus, if a containment attempt is to have a chance of succeeding, the response must employ the assets of multiple partners in a well coordinated way.   For isolated outbreaks outside the U.S., this means effective multinational cooperation in executing containment protocols designed and exercised well in advance.  For isolated outbreaks within the U.S., this would require effective integration of the response assets of local, state, and federal governments and those of the private sector.

The National Response Plan (NRP), based on the principles of incident management, provides an appropriate conceptual and operational framework for a multi-party response to an outbreak of a potential influenza pandemic in one or a few U.S. communities.  In particular, the NRP is designed to engage the response assets of multiple public and private partners and bring them to bear in a coordinated way at one or a few incident sites.   (Appendix A provides additional information regarding the NRP.)

If efforts to contain isolated outbreaks within the U.S. were unsuccessful and influenza spread quickly to affect many more communities either simultaneously or in quick succession—the hallmark of a pandemic—response assets at all levels of government and the private sector would be taxed severely.  Communities would need to direct all their influenza response assets to their own needs and would have little to spare for the needs of others.  Moreover, as the number of affected communities grows, their collective need would spread the response assets of states and the federal government ever thinner.  In the extreme, until a vaccine against the pandemic virus would become available in sufficient quantity to have a significant impact on protecting public health, thousands of communities could be countering influenza simultaneously with little or no assistance from adjacent communities, the state, or the federal government.  Preparedness planning for pandemic influenza response must take this prospect into account.

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Planning Assumptions

Pandemic preparedness planning is based on assumptions regarding the evolution and impacts of a pandemic.   Defining the potential magnitude of a pandemic is difficult because of the large differences in severity for the three 20th-century pandemics.  While the 1918 pandemic resulted in an estimated 500,000 deaths in the U.S., the 1968 pandemic caused an estimated 34,000 U.S. deaths.  This difference is largely related to the severity of infections and the virulence of the influenza viruses that caused the pandemics.  The 20th century pandemics have also shared similar characteristics.  In each pandemic, about 30% of the U.S. population developed illness, with about half seeking medical care.  Children have tended to have the highest rates of illness, though not of severe disease and death.  Geographical spread in each pandemic was rapid and virtually all communities experienced outbreaks.

Pandemic planning is based on the following assumptions about pandemic disease:        

  • Susceptibility to the pandemic influenza subtype will be universal.
  • The clinical disease attack rate will be 30% in the overall population.   Illness rates will be highest among school-aged children (about 40%) and decline with age.   Among working adults, an average of 20% will become ill during a community outbreak.
  • Of those who become ill with influenza, 50% will seek outpatient medical care. 
  • The number of hospitalizations and deaths will depend on the virulence of the pandemic virus.   Estimates differ about 10-fold between more and less severe scenarios.   Because the virulence of the influenza virus that causes the next pandemic cannot be predicted, two scenarios are presented based on extrapolation of past pandemic experience (Table 1).  

Table 1.   Number of Episodes of Illness, Healthcare Utilization, and Death Associated with Moderate and Severe Pandemic Influenza Scenarios*

Characteristic

Moderate (1958/68-like)

Severe (1918-like)

Illness

90 million (30%)

90 million (30%)

Outpatient medical care

45 million (50%)

45 million (50%)

Hospitalization

865,000

9,900,000

ICU care

128,750

1,485,000

Mechanical ventilation

  64,875

   742,500

Deaths

209,000

1,903,000

* Estimates based on extrapolation from past pandemics in the United States.   Note that these estimates do not include the potential impact of interventions not available during the 20th century pandemics.

  • Risk groups for severe and fatal infections cannot be predicted with certainty.  During annual fall and winter influenza season, infants and the elderly, persons with chronic illnesses, and pregnant women are usually at higher risk of complications from influenza infections.  In contrast, in the 1918 pandemic, most deaths occurred among young, previously healthy adults.
  • The typical incubation period (the time between acquiring the infection until becoming ill), for influenza averages 2 days.  We assume this would be the same for a novel strain that is transmitted between people by respiratory secretions. 
  • Persons who become ill may shed virus and can transmit infection for one-half to one day before the onset of illness.  Viral shedding and the risk for transmission will be greatest during the first 2 days of illness.  Children will shed the greatest amount of virus and, therefore are likely to pose the greatest risk for transmission. 
  • On average about 2 secondary infections will occur as a result of transmission from someone who is ill.  Some estimates from past pandemics have been higher, with up to about 3 secondary infections per primary case.
  • In an affected community, a pandemic outbreak will last about 6 to 8 weeks.  At least two pandemic disease waves are likely.  Following the pandemic, the new viral subtype is likely to continue circulating and to contribute to seasonal influenza.
  • The seasonality of a pandemic cannot be predicted with certainty.  The largest waves in the U.S. during 20th century pandemics occurred in the fall and winter.  Experience from the 1957 pandemic may be instructive in that the first U.S. cases occurred in June but no community outbreaks occurred until August and the first wave of illness peaked in October. 

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Doctrine for a Pandemic Influenza Response

HHS will be guided by the following principles in initiating and directing its response activities:

  1. In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS will work with federal, state, and local government partners and the private sector to coordinate pandemic influenza preparedness activities and to achieve interoperable response capabilities.1
  2. In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS will encourage all Americans to be active partners in preparing their states, local communities, workplaces, and homes for pandemic influenza and will emphasize that a pandemic will require Americans to make difficult choices.  An informed and responsive public is essential to minimizing the health effects of a pandemic and the resulting consequences to society.
  3. In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS, in concert with federal partners, will work with the pharmaceutical industry to develop domestic vaccine production capacity sufficient to provide vaccine for the entire U.S. population as soon as possible after the onset of a pandemic and, during the pre-pandemic period, to produce up to 20 million courses of vaccine against each circulating influenza virus with pandemic potential and to expand seasonal influenza domestic vaccine production to cover all Americans for whom vaccine is recommended through normal commercial transactions.
  4. In advance of an influenza pandemic, HHS, in concert with federal partners and in collaboration with the States, will procure sufficient quantities of antiviral drugs to treat 25% of the U.S. population and, in so doing, stimulate development of expanded domestic production capacity sufficient to accommodate subsequent needs through normal commercial transactions.  HHS will stockpile antiviral medications in the Strategic National Stockpile, and states will create and maintain local stockpiles.
  5. Sustained human-to-human transmission anywhere in the world will be the triggering event to initiate a pandemic response by the United States.  Because we live in a global community, a human outbreak anywhere means risk everywhere.
  6. The US will attempt to prevent an influenza pandemic or delay its emergence by striving to arrest isolated outbreaks of a novel influenza wherever circumstances suggest that such an attempt might be successful, acting in concert with WHO and other nations as appropriate.  At the core of this strategy will be basic public health measures to reduce person-to-person transmission.
  7. At the onset of an influenza pandemic, HHS, in concert with federal partners, will work with the pharmaceutical industry to procure vaccine directed against the pandemic strain and to distribute vaccine to state and local public health departments for pre-determined priority groups based on pre-approved state plans.
  8. At the onset of an influenza pandemic, HHS, in collaboration with the states, will begin to distribute and deliver antiviral drugs from public stockpiles to healthcare facilities and others with direct patient care responsibility for administration to pre-determined priority groups.

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Key Pandemic Influenza Response Actions and Key Capabilities for Effective Implementation

An influenza pandemic will place extraordinary and sustained demands on public health and healthcare systems and on providers of essential community services across the U.S. and throughout the world. The nature and scope of these demands will vary over the course of the pandemic.   Table 2 lists key pandemic response actions that public health, medical, and other government authorities at all levels must be prepared to take to mitigate the potentially catastrophic consequences of a pandemic.  A more detailed list of HHS-specific response actions categorized by WHO pandemic phase is shown in Tables 4 through 9.  

Pandemic influenza preparedness is a process, not an isolated event.  To most effectively implement key pandemic response actions, specific capabilities must be developed through preparedness activities implemented before the pandemic occurs.   For each key pandemic response activity, Table 2 summarizes capabilities needed for implementation of an effective response.

Table 2.   Key Pandemic Response Elements and Key Capabilities for their Effective Implementation

Key Pandemic Response Actions

Key Capabilities Needed for Implementation of an Effective Response

Surveillance, Investigation, and Protective Public Health Measures

  1. Increase international surveillance and collaborate in outbreak investigation to track the emerging epidemiological patterns and impacts of disease caused by the novel influenza virus subtype.
  2. Determine feasibility of containing the initial outbreak of a potential pandemic, working in consultation with international partners, and if feasible, implement containment activities.
  3. Obtain samples of the potential pandemic virus from infected people and distribute them to laboratories for genetic, antigenic, and antiviral resistance analysis.   Prepare reference strains for distribution to vaccine manufacturers.   Assess cross-protection of stockpiled vaccine, if available, against the pandemic virus.
  4. Implement surveillance and control measures (e.g., isolation of cases, quarantine of contacts, antiviral drug treatment and prophylaxis) at points-of-entry to decrease introduction and spread of the pandemic virus in the U.S.
  5. Enhance domestic surveillance to detect pandemic outbreaks, track the spread of virus in near real-time, and assess impacts on health and infrastructure.
  6. Implement public health measures to limit the spread of infection (e.g., canceling public gatherings) as well as individual measures to decrease the risk of acquiring or spreading infection (e.g., personal hygiene, isolation of ill persons).
  7. Monitor pandemic response actions and assess their effectiveness.
  1. Agreements with international partners, including international organizations, and other U.S. government agencies, to improve the capability and capacity of local public health systems in countries where a potential pandemic virus strain is likely to emerge so that accurate and timely influenza surveillance information can be obtained.
  2. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures), deployed at home and abroad, to investigate, and if feasible, mount an immediate emergency response.
  3. Laboratory assets to characterize the novel influenza virus strain (genetic and antigenic characteristics and antiviral resistance) and rapidly develop a vaccine reference strain for distribution to manufacturers.

Agreements with international partners to quickly obtain samples.

  1. Quarantine stations and related protections at all major U.S. ports of entry to limit the introduction of pandemic influenza, isolate cases, and trace contacts.
  2. Real-time or near real-time electronic connectivity with major domestic healthcare institutions and public health departments across the U.S. to obtain daily influenza disease and resource availability information.

Widely available, reliable, rapid, sensitive, and accurate diagnostic tests.

  1. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) to effect wide-spread individual and community-based infection control measures and educate individuals on personal protection strategies.
  2. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) to analyze data continually during the course of the pandemic to guide response activities and to assess the safety and efficacy of interventions.

Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs

  1. Consider administration of pre-pandemic stockpiled vaccine, if available, to pre-defined groups critical to the pandemic response.  This could provide partial immune protection and/or prime the immune system for a protective response once a targeted pandemic vaccine becomes available.
  2. In conjunction with other parties, manufacture, test, license, and produce vaccine against the specific pandemic virus strain.  
  3. Allocate and administer pandemic vaccine to pre-defined priority groups.  Ensure security for protection of scarce vaccines.
  4. Monitor vaccine coverage and track vaccine use so persons who receive initial pandemic vaccine can return for a second dose, if required.   Monitor for adverse events following vaccination and conduct studies to assess vaccine safety and effectiveness.
  5. Allocate stockpiled antiviral drugs for use in pre-defined high-risk and critical infrastructure populations.  
  6. Monitor antiviral drug distribution and adverse events, and conduct studies to further assess safety and effectiveness.
  1. A national stockpile of 40 million doses (2 doses per person) of vaccine against influenza virus subtypes considered to pose a substantial pandemic risk (currently avian H5N1).
  2. Domestic influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity to produce sufficient pandemic vaccine for the U.S. population within 6 months of the onset of an influenza pandemic.

Consider liability concerns vaccine manufacturers.

A library of reference strains and reagents for novel influenza subtypes; clinical trials of candidate pandemic influenza vaccines in the U.S. and affected areas.

  1. State and local vaccine distribution plans, guided by recommendations for use of pandemic vaccine when supply is short, that are specific, implementable, and which have been practiced in tabletop and field exercises.
  2. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) to monitor vaccine coverage, adverse events, and effectiveness.
  3. Availability of at least 81 million treatment courses of approved antiviral drugs—enough for treatment of approximately 25% of the U.S. population and 6 million additional treatment courses in reserve for domestic containment.

State and local antiviral drug distribution plans, guided by recommendations for use of pandemic vaccine when supply is short, that are specific, implementable, and have been practiced in tabletop and field exercises.

Increased U.S.-based antiviral drug manufacturing.

  1. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) to monitor antiviral distribution, adverse events, and effectiveness.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

  1. Distribute stockpiled ventilators and other medical material needed to treat and care for infected individuals to health departments and federal agencies that provide direct patient care.
  2. Deploy Federal Medical Stations, as available, to provide healthcare surge capacity in hardest hit areas.
  3. Test patient specimens using highly accurate (sensitive and specific) rapid diagnostic tests to identify pandemic outbreaks in communities and contribute to management decisions. 
  4. Assist communities with surge mortuary services to accommodate a large number of expected fatalities.
  5. Provide psychosocial support to responders and affected communities.
  1. Equipment and supplies maintained in the Strategic National Stockpile and state stockpiles sufficient to enhance medical surge capacity.
  2. Federal Medical Stations and healthcare assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) to enhance medical surge capacity.
  3. Widely available accurate rapid diagnostic methods to detect and characterize influenza viruses
  4. Assets (people, facilities, equipment, supplies, and exercised procedures) for the timely, safe, and respectful disposition of the deceased.
  5. Institutionalization of psychosocial support services and development of workforce resiliency programs.

Communications and Outreach

  1. Public education and information campaign to 1) communicate measures the public can implement to minimize risk and decrease the spread of infection; 2) provide honest, accurate, understandable and timely information; and 3) counter confusion and panic.
  1. Pre-tested risk communication materials that provide the public easy-to-understand information regarding pandemic influenza and how individuals can protect themselves and help others during an influenza pandemic, and appropriate use of vaccines and antiviral drugs.

    Pre-tested procedures through which public authorities within each community will provide information and guidance to the public (including marginalized, disadvantaged, and foreign-language populations) during an influenza pandemic.

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Table 3 provides a summary of the roles and responsibilities assigned to select HHS officials, agencies, and divisions.

Table 3.   Summary of Major Pandemic Response Roles of HHS Officials, Agencies, and Divisions

HHS Official, Agency, or Division

Roles

Secretary of Health and Human Services

  • Directs all HHS pandemic response activities

Assistant Secretary for Public Health Emergency Preparedness  (ASPHEP)

  • Coordinates HHS pandemic response activities
  • Monitors effectiveness of response activities and modifies strategies, as needed
  • Coordinates and communicates with other federal departments and agencies

Assistant Secretary for Health (ASH)

  • Directs the Office of the Surgeon General in deployment of U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps assets
  • Directs Regional Health Administrators who will be members of Secretary’s Emergency Response Teams (SERTs) in their regions
  • Advises Secretary on Public Health and Science as he directs HHS pandemic response activities
  • Coordinates operations planning efforts of HHS agencies, operational divisions and offices
  • Assists with public communications and coordination with state and local public health partners
  • Directs the National Vaccine Program Office (NVPO) in pandemic preparedness and response

Director of Office of Intergovernmental Affairs

  • Advises and coordinates outreach and communications to state, local and tribal officials and national intergovernmental organizations

Assistant Secretary for Legislation (ASL)

  • Coordinates Congressional outreach and communications

Office of the Surgeon General (OSG)

  • Deploys U.S. Public Health Service Commissioned Corps assets (upon approval of the Assistant Secretary for Health)
  • Assists with public communication and education
  • Assists and coordinate pandemic planning with partner federal health service providers, specifically the Indian Health Service, The Federal Bureau of Prisons and the Coast Guard

Assistant Secretary for Public Affairs (ASPA)

  • Coordinates public information and communications

National Vaccine Program Office (NVPO)

  • Chairs Secretary’s Task Force on Influenza Preparedness
  • Coordinates communication between vaccine and antiviral drug manufacturers and HHS agencies
  • Coordinates development of after-action report and lessons learned
  • Maintains close communication with drug and vaccine manufacturers

Office of the General Counsel (OGC)

  • Advises on legal issues and authorities related to key pandemic response activities

Director of the Office of Global Health Affairs (OGHA)

  • Coordinates interactions with health authorities in other governments and international organizations in coordination with the Department of State

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)

  • Conducts and supports clinical and virological influenza surveillance
  • Monitors pandemic health impacts
  • Implements travel-related and community containment measures as necessary to prevent the introduction, transmission, and spread of pandemic disease from foreign countries into the US, from state to state or in the event of inadequate local control
  • Coordinates pandemic response activities with state, local and tribal public health agencies
  • Investigates epidemiology and clinical characteristics of pandemic disease
  • Assists in vaccination program implementation and in monitoring and investigating vaccine adverse events
  • Assesses vaccine effectiveness in population-based studies
  • Coordinates antiviral and other drug delivery from the Strategic National Stockpile
  • Monitors antiviral drug use, effectiveness, safety, and resistance
  • Monitors the implementation/effectiveness of protective public health measures
  • Recommends and evaluates community measures to prevent and control disease
  • Makes recommendations on diagnosis and management of influenza illness
  • Makes recommendations on appropriate infection control recommendations
  • Communicates with state and local health departments and other public health partners
  • Communicates information on pandemic health impacts as directed by the ASPA
  • Maintains close communication with drug and vaccine manufacturers

Centers for Medicare and Medicaid

  • Provides streamlined payment mechanisms and works with prescription drug plans and Medicare managed care plans, as necessary to ensure ready access to pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral prescription drugs for Medicare’s population
  • Communicates specific guidance and supports pandemic flu response activities of the nation’s hospitals, home health agencies, skilled nursing facilities and other health care providers, suppliers and practitioners that participate in Medicare and Medicaid
  • Communicates influenza pandemic related information through existing outreach networks to Medicare beneficiary populations
  • Supports tracking and surveillance of Medicare patients, including high-risk and vulnerable patients who have received pandemic influenza vaccine and antiviral prescription drugs, including review of Medicare claims and quality data
  • Supplies “real time” intelligence to other Federal health care agencies on the status of local, regional and national pandemic flu response provider activities through stakeholder association meetings and open door forums
  •  
  • Prepares reference strains appropriate for vaccine manufacturing

Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

  • Regulates manufacturing process
  • Evaluates and licenses pandemic vaccines
  • Evaluates and approves antiviral drugs for influenza
  • Facilitates the development, evaluation and clearance or approval of diagnostic tests and devices
  • Prepares reagents to standardize potency of inactivated influenza vaccines
  • Prepares reference strains appropriate for vaccine manufacturing
  • Reviews antiviral drug and pandemic vaccine supply issues
  • Evaluates and issues Emergency Use Authorizations when appropriate
  • Monitors vaccine adverse events
  • Monitors antiviral drug adverse events
  • Maintains close communication with drug and vaccine manufacturers
  • Evaluates investigational new drug applications (INDs) and investigational device exemptions (IDEs) for medical products that diagnose, treat, prevent or mitigate influenza
  • Evaluates new manufacturing sites and processes for antiviral drugs
  • Makes necessary changes in prescribing and patient information, including dosing, target populations, and other direction for use, for antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccines based on research and adverse events
  • Evaluates long-term stability of stockpiled antiviral drugs for purposes of shelf life extension
  • Monitors to protect against the distribution of counterfeit antiviral drugs and pandemic vaccines

National Institutes of Health (NIH)

  • Develops improved drugs against influenza
  • Supports basic research, including structure/function studies of influenza virus proteins with the goal of identifying new therapeutic targets
  • Develops and clinically evaluates novel influenza vaccines and vaccination strategies (e.g., adjuvants, delivery systems)
  • Develops sensitive, specific, and rapid diagnostic tests for influenza
  • Evaluates the immune response to infection and vaccination
  • Determines the molecular basis of virulence in humans and animals
  • Evaluates the molecular and/or environmental factors that influence the transmission of influenza viruses, including drug-resistant strains
  • Studies the evolution and emergence of influenza viruses including the identification of factors that affect influenza host-range and virulence
  • Supports virologic and serologic surveillance studies of the distribution of influenza viruses with pandemic potential in animals
  • Maintains close communication with drug and vaccine manufacturers
  • Prepares reference strains appropriate for vaccine manufacturing

Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ)

  • Communicates with and supports federal, state, and local public health partners on mass vaccination and surge capacity healthcare delivery plans

Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA)

  • Communicates with and provides technical assistance to support pandemic response activities of state primary care associations, health centers, and other community-based providers
  • Promotes coordination with the National Hospital Bioterrorism Preparedness Program for surge capacity plans

Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA)

  • Communicates with and supports pandemic response activities of state, local, and tribal mental health and substance abuse agencies
  • Communicates information on behavioral health issues, including stress and anxiety as a result of pandemic health impacts, as directed by the ASPA

Administration for Children and Families (ACF)

  • Communicates with and supports pandemic response activities of state, local, tribal, and nonprofit (including faith-based and community) human services organizations
  • Communicates information on child and family well-being, including the importance and availability of vaccinations and antiviral drugs, as well as proper hygienic practices, to treat pandemic influenza and prevent its spread
  • Encourages the participation of human services providers (e.g., Head Start centers, child care centers, family resource centers, community action agencies, runaway and homeless youth shelters, and shelters for unaccompanied alien children) in making vaccines and antiviral drugs available to vulnerable populations
  • Assists in medium- and long-term social adjustment of individuals, families, and communities following the pandemic

Indian Health Service (IHS)

  • Communicates with and supports state, local, and tribal pandemic response activities at HHS, tribal, and urban Indian sites serving American Indian and Alaska Native populations

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HHS Actions for Pandemic Influenza Preparedness and Response

HHS will follow the WHO published guidance for national pandemic planning, which defines pandemic activities in six phases.   WHO Phases 1 and 2 are the Interpandemic Period, which includes phases where no new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans.
The Pandemic Alert Period includes a phase when human infection with a novel influenza strain has been identified but no evidence has been found of transmission between people or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact (WHO Phase 3) and includes phases where person-to-person transmission is occurring in clusters with limited human-to-human transmission (WHO Phases 4 and 5).  WHO Phase 6 is the Pandemic Period, in which there is increased and sustained transmission in the general population.   (Appendix C describes the WHO pandemic phases in detail.)

Each pandemic phase is associated with a range of preparedness and response activities directed by the Secretary of Health and Human Services, after consultation with international authorities and others, as necessary.   Given that an influenza pandemic may not unfold in a completely predictable way, decision-makers must regularly reassess their strategies and actions and make adjustments as necessary.  This section highlights critical pandemic preparedness and response activities to be implemented by HHS.

Table 4:  WHO Pandemic Phases 1 and 2:  HHS Actions

WHO Phases 1 and 2:  Interpandemic Phase Actions

Planning and Coordination

Assess preparedness status and identify actions needed to fill gaps.

Coordinate with Federal, state and local, tribal, and private-sector authorities and organizations, and with media and the public.

Develop and conduct tabletop and field exercises to evaluate and improve preparedness plans and response capabilities.

Coordinate completion of pandemic preparedness and response plans at Federal, state local, tribal, and private-sector levels.

Update HHS Pandemic Influenza Plan as needed.

Consider indemnification and liability protection issues for affected entities, including pandemic vaccine manufacturers, pandemic vaccine distributors, and healthcare providers who administer pandemic vaccines.

Surveillance, Investigation, and Protective Public Health Measures

Prepare reagents for identification of new influenza strains in animals and other strains with pandemic potential.

Assist in domestic and international influenza outbreak investigations.

Develop strategies to enhance domestic surveillance and collaborate with international organizations to improve global surveillance to allow earlier detection of novel influenza viruses.

Enhance collaborations with international organizations and governments to facilitate surveillance and reporting and the ability to investigate disease outbreaks and implement containment measures that could prevent a pandemic.

Develop guidance for outbreak control measures in healthcare settings and other institutions such as long-term care facilities.

Develop strategies to prevent spread of infection to or within the U.S. from affected areas (e.g., travel advisories or precautions, assessment of travelers returning from affected areas).

Assess pathogenicity, antiviral susceptibility, and other characteristics of novel influenza strains.

Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs

Develop strategies to increase uptake of annual influenza vaccine.

Expand U.S.-based influenza vaccine manufacturing capacity, diversifying vaccine production methods and suppliers.

Ensure capacity exists to produce adequate doses of influenza vaccine year-round.

Support development, evaluation, and U.S.-based production of an influenza vaccine produced in cell culture.

Support development, evaluation and U.S.-based production of antiviral drugs.

Develop vaccine reference strain and reagents for influenza strains with pandemic potential.

Obtain investigational lots of candidate vaccine for novel influenza strains and conduct clinical testing.

Develop strategies for rapid administration of vaccines to priority populations and mechanisms to monitor vaccine effectiveness and safety.

Support efforts to make antiviral drugs available to treat priority populations and to support containment, outbreak response, and protection of priority populations involved in pandemic response activities and maintenance of critical services and infrastructures.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Assess surge capacity of medical (including inpatient, outpatient, and long-term care facilities) and emergency response systems (e.g. beds, ventilators, etc.) to meet expected needs during a pandemic.

Assess surge capacity of federal medical assets (e.g. IHS, VA, DOD).

Communications and Outreach

Coordinate communication activities across federal departments and with state, local and international partners.

Inform and educate the public about influenza.

Communicate with state and local health departments.

Develop educational materials for healthcare and human services providers, the media, and the public on pandemic influenza preparedness and response, including facilities, vaccine, and antiviral drugs in short supply.

Develop strategies and materials to support a pandemic response and to promote public trust and decrease fear and anxiety.

Research

Conduct research to develop and manufacture new influenza vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Conduct research to decrease time needed to develop, evaluate, and produce pandemic vaccine.

Conduct research to decrease time needed to develop, evaluate, and produce antiviral drugs.

Conduct research on effective protective health measures.

Table 5:  WHO Pandemic Phase 3:  HHS Actions

WHO Phase 3: Pandemic Alert Phase Actions (No person-to-person transmission)

Planning and Coordination

Assess preparedness status and identify actions needed to fill gaps.

Collaborate with international partners to respond to pandemic alert.

Inform government officials (including Congress and state health departments) and legislators of pandemic alert status.

Surveillance, Investigation, and  Protective Public Health Measures

Distribute reagents to state public health laboratories and WHO National Influenza Centers for detection of the new strain.

Assist in international influenza outbreak investigations and characterize disease epidemiology and antigenic and genetic characteristics of the virus.

Implement strategies to enhance domestic surveillance and to identify suspect cases in the U.S. in coordination with state and local health authorities.

Provide guidance to implement outbreak control measures in healthcare settings and other institutions, such as long-term care facilities, as needed.

Implement strategies to prevent the spread of infection to or within the U.S. from affected areas, in coordination with state and local health authorities.

Vaccines and Antiviral Drugs

Develop vaccine reference strain to the novel influenza virus and distribute to manufacturers.

Develop reagents for evaluation of candidate vaccines to the novel strain.

Test investigational lots of vaccine to the new strain.

Develop a tracking system that will ensure that individuals obtain subsequent doses of vaccine and will report and monitor for adverse events.

Develop a tracking system to report and monitor for adverse events in individuals given antiviral therapies.

Assess status of available antiviral drugs and strategies for use.

Evaluate antiviral susceptibilities of the novel strain.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Assess capacity of medical and emergency response systems to meet expected needs during a pandemic.

Enhance surge capacity of federal medical systems.

Communications
And Outreach

Update state and local health departments, other stakeholders, and the media on status of pandemic.

Enhance healthcare provider awareness of the potential for a pandemic and the importance of diagnosis and viral identification for persons with influenza-like illness, especially from potentially affected areas.

Implement strategies and disseminate materials to support a pandemic response and to promote public trust and decrease fear and anxiety.

Table 6:  WHO Pandemic Phases 4 and 5:  HHS Actions

WHO Phases 4 and 5: Pandemic Alert Phase Actions – Limited human-to-human transmission

Planning and Coordination

Assess preparedness status and identify immediate actions needed to fill gaps.

Establish coordination of response activities through the Secretary’s Operations Center.

Coordinate with the WHO and foreign governments.

Notify government officials (including Congress and state health departments) and legislators of pandemic status.

Surveillance, Investigation, and  Protective Public Health Measures

Assist in international containment efforts, if appropriate.

Assist in international influenza outbreak investigations and characterize disease epidemiology and antigenic and genetic characteristics of the virus.

Distribute reagents to state public health laboratories for detection of the novel strain.

Continue enhanced national surveillance; identify suspect cases and/or introduction of a novel virus into the U.S. 

Provide education to travelers, including refugees being resettled in the U.S., and issue travel advisories, precautions, or restrictions if warranted by disease epidemiology; investigate illness among travelers returning from affected areas and implement isolation and quarantine, as needed.

Vaccines and Antiviral drugs

Develop vaccine reference strain (if not already done) and distribute to manufacturers.

Develop and test investigational lots of vaccine to the new strain.

Develop reagents for formulation and potency testing of pandemic vaccine.

Contract with manufacturers to develop pilot lots of pandemic vaccine for clinical testing.

Initiate rapid clinical studies of pandemic vaccine safety, immunogenicity, and schedule.

Determine susceptibility of the novel influenza strain to antiviral drugs (if not already done).

Assess supply, distribution, and production capacity of antiviral drug manufacturers.

Contract with manufacturers for production of additional antiviral drugs.

Ready process for investigational new drug (IND) or Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) applications for experimental vaccines and antiviral drugs available for use under EUA or IND.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Assess capacity of medical and emergency response systems to meet expected needs during a pandemic.

Provide updated guidance, if indicated, to healthcare providers on clinical management and infection control.

Communications
and Outreach

Update Congress; state, local, and tribal health departments; local officials, other stakeholders, and the media.

Implement public education on the potential for a pandemic and the actions to be taken to reduce risk.

Table 7:  WHO Pandemic Phase 6, No U.S. Cases:  HHS Actions

WHO Phase 6: Pandemic Period Actions (no cases in the U.S.)

Planning and Coordination

Update government officials (including Congress and state health departments) and legislators on pandemic status.

Coordinate information sharing with other federal agencies, including DHS, Department of State, DOD, the WHO, and other countries.

Surveillance, Investigation, and Protective Public Health Measures

Collaborate with international organizations to assess epidemiology of disease outbreaks and efficiency of person-to-person transmission, and to obtain parameter estimates to support real-time mathematical modeling.

Implement travel advisories, precautions, or restrictions, as appropriate.

Investigate illness among travelers returning from affected areas; implement isolation and quarantine, as needed.

Assist states, as needed, in investigating potential cases of pandemic influenza.

Continue activities to enhance detection of U.S. cases of influenza at borders, hospitals, and outpatient settings.

Ensure availability of diagnostic reagents for pandemic influenza strain at state and local public health laboratories.

Provide reference laboratory support to test clinical specimens for influenza and identify novel strain.

Develop and evaluate diagnostic tests for the novel strain.

Vaccines and Antiviral drugs

Contract with manufacturers for production of pandemic vaccine.

Assess candidate vaccines for licensure.

Review and revise, as needed, priority groups and strategies for antiviral drug use and vaccination.

Continue ongoing assessment of antiviral resistance of the pandemic strain.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Review and revise, as needed, plans for healthcare delivery and community support.

Assess availability of federal personnel, supplies, and materials for infection control and clinical care of infected patients.

Provide guidance to healthcare providers on infection control guidelines for hospitals, long-term care facilities, and outpatient settings.

Communications
and Outreach

Update stakeholders and the media through regular briefings.

Educate healthcare providers through satellite broadcasts, webcasts, and other communications channels.

Continue public education activities.

Table 8:  WHO Pandemic Phase 6, U.S. Cases:  HHS Actions

WHO Phase 6: Pandemic Period Actions (cases in the U.S.)

Planning and Coordination

Make determination of pandemic disease in the U.S.

Assess need for funding for costs associated with pandemic response.

Coordinate with international organizations and foreign governments as well as state and local governments.

Surveillance, Investigation, and Protective Public Health Measures

Investigate initial cases and outbreaks; consider/implement interventions to decrease disease spread.

Implement studies of spread in communities and families; identify risk factors for infection and adverse health outcomes.

Reassess containment strategies such as travel advisories and restrictions.

Provide laboratory support to health departments in affected areas.

Initiate active reporting of enhanced surveillance for mortality and severe morbidity in affected areas.

Assist state and local health agencies in responding to outbreaks.

Consult with state and local public health agencies on implementation of strategies to control disease spread and decrease infection rates in communities, as needed.

Assess impacts of community control strategies.

Assess the effectiveness of public health measures and outbreak control.

Vaccines and Antiviral drugs

Review/revise priority populations for vaccination and antiviral drug use.

Negotiate production and purchase of pandemic vaccine from manufacturers.

Begin distribution of pandemic vaccine, if available, and immunization of target groups.

Assist in providing resources and personnel for vaccine administration.

Monitor vaccine coverage and vaccine adverse events.

Conduct studies of vaccine effectiveness; re-evaluate vaccine dose and schedule.

Implement distribution of the antiviral stockpile.

Monitor antiviral drug distribution and adverse events.

Conduct studies of antiviral drug impacts.

Review and approve, as appropriate, IND or EUA applications.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Advise states and localities to activate plans to coordinate healthcare delivery and community response.

Deploy medical personnel, equipment, and supplies to augment local healthcare capacity in affected areas.

Evaluate clinical outcomes and define optimal treatment strategies.

Communications
and Outreach

Activate pandemic communications plan.

Reinforce education on care seeking and home care.

Communicate lessons learned to healthcare providers and public health agencies on effectiveness of clinical and public health responses.

Research

Evaluate effectiveness of vaccine, antiviral drugs, and other interventions.

Table 9:  WHO Pandemic Phase 6, Between Pandemic Waves or Pandemic Subsided in the U.S:  HHS Actions

WHO Phase 6: Pandemic Period Actions (between pandemic waves or pandemic subsided in the U.S.)

Planning and Coordination

Assess coordination during period of pandemic disease and revise response plans, as needed.

Implement after-action review of pandemic response activities.

Assess resources and authorities that may be needed for subsequent pandemic waves.

Surveillance, Investigation, and  Protective Public Health Measures

Estimate overall pandemic health impacts including mortality and severe morbidity.

Continue enhanced domestic and international surveillance to detect further pandemic waves.

Vaccines and Antiviral drugs

Assess vaccine coverage, effectiveness of targeting to priority groups, and efficiency of distribution and administration; determine number of persons who remain unprotected.

Assess vaccine efficacy, safety, and impact during the pandemic.

Determine potential vaccine formulation changes to improve efficacy or supply.

Monitor continued administration of vaccine to persons not previously protected.

Assess antiviral effectiveness and safety.

Evaluate need to expand vaccine and antiviral production capacity.

Healthcare and Emergency Response

Assess effectiveness of federal healthcare and service delivery during prior pandemic phases and revise plans, as needed.

Communications
And Outreach

Assess effectiveness of communications during prior pandemic phases and revise plans, as needed.

Communicate with healthcare providers, the media, and the public about the likely next pandemic wave.

Research

Evaluate effectiveness of vaccine, antiviral drugs, and other interventions.

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