Slide Presentation from the AHRQ 2007 Annual Conference

Six Sigma Opiate Pilot Project: Develop a Predictive Risk Model

Screen shot of the predictive risk model. The top of the screen shows a circle labeled 63,033. Inside this circle is a very small circled labeled 322 Narcotic ADEs SI>=3. Next to the circle is states "0.5% (1/200). Below that are three lozenge-shaped text boxes with the following information:

9.1%

8.7%

7.5%

Notes:

Opiate ADE=rare event (0.5%)—Number needed to treat = 200
Subgroups of pts at higher risk- Number needed to treat = 10 for 10%
Allow us to electronically identify pts at higher risk & focus limited resources on these efforts