How Strikes Affect CES Estimates

Employment

Anyone paid for working any portion of the reference pay period (pay period that includes the 12^th of the month) is counted as employed. Therefore, to be counted as not employed for purposes of the CES survey, a person on strike or strike-related layoff must not receive pay for the entire reference pay period.

Average weekly hours (AWH) and Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)

These are hours for which production workers are paid for work or on paid leave for the reference pay period (including paid vacation, holidays, sick leave or other paid leave).

When strikers or laid off employees work part but not all of the reference pay period, then they are counted as employed according to the CES survey but with reduced hours. The magnitude of the reduction on average weekly hours depends on the proportion of workers in the industry’s sample with reduced hours and the number of hours they worked.

When workers are on strike or layoff for an entire pay period, they can affect these estimates in two ways:

• Within-industry effects—For the specific industry involved in the strike, estimates are affected only if hours or earnings of the persons on strike or layoff differ significantly from the specific industry's average hours or earnings. The impact is phased in slowly over the months the strike continues. Because of confidentiality requirements, BLS cannot provide the impact of a particular strike and related shutdowns on average weekly hours or average hourly earnings for a specific industry.

• Sum-across-industries effects—The absence of persons on strike or layoff from payrolls may affect average weekly hours or average hourly earnings at higher levels of industry aggregation. If workers in the specific industry involved in the strike work shorter hours or earn less than workers in other industries in the aggregation, the hours and earnings estimates for the aggregation would be higher. If workers in the specific industry involved in the strike work longer hours or earn more than the workers in other industries in the aggregation, the hours and earnings estimates for the aggregation would be lower.
  
  Suppose that workers strike in a high-paid private manufacturing industry. The estimates of average hourly earnings at higher levels of industry aggregation (e.g., for all manufacturing workers and for all workers in the private sector) will be lower because there are fewer workers in a high-paid industry. This is in addition to any within industry impact their absence from payrolls may have had.

Example

January with reference week Sunday 1/11 to Saturday 1/17

February with reference week Sunday 2/8 to Saturday 2/14

Company A strike: Strike/layoff activity. (This company has a weekly pay period.)

The strike is settled February 19. All workers are called back to work February 20.

* Both the January and February AWH and AHE also could be affected if strikers’ normal hours and/or hourly earnings differ significantly from industry average.

Note: For confidentiality reasons, CES staff cannot provide company-specific information, including dates or workers involved in strike/layoffs, other than what is already publicly available at the time of the strike. Contact the company or news sources for more specific information.

Last Modified Date: October 16, 2001