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SPRING OUTLOOK CALLS FOR FLOOD POTENTIAL, CONTINUED DROUGHT
March 15, 2001 Winter snow storms
in the Northeast and Midwest have set the stage for potential
flooding while drought
conditions in the Northwest and water shortages in the Southeast
will linger despite spring rains, NOAA
scientists said today. (Click NOAA image for larger view.)
"A major concern is the
impact of continued dry conditions on salmon stocks and hydroelectric
energy production in the Northwest," said Scott
Gudes, NOAA's acting administrator. "Current conditions
are so extreme that portions of the Columbia River Basin may
register river flow volume at its lowest since 1977."
(Click
here to see news conference. You'll need RealPlayer to view
it. Click here to
download the program.)
Retired Air Force Brig. Gen.
Jack Kelly,
director of NOAA's National
Weather Service, said, "You had the coldest November
and December on record in parts of the country, drought conditions
in the Northwest and Florida, major snowstorms which crippled
parts of the nation; that equals a winter to remember."
Kelly said, "The spring
outlook presents forecasters with two concernsdrought and
floods. "Heavy snows in the Northeast and Midwest now make
some of those states vulnerable to floods if the snow pack melts
too quickly. The water shortage in the Southeast is expected
to remain. The Northwest will see above-normal precipitation,
but the spring rainfall will be too little too late to replenish
water resources there."
"U.S. Geological Survey
stream-gauges and other monitoring systems show
record-breaking dryness in many parts of the United States, particularly
the Pacific Northwest, western North Carolina, and parts of Florida,"
said USGS Director Chip
Groat. "As we move towards the drier months of summer,
USGS will continue to provide information on droughts, floods,
and other water conditions to NOAA and the weather service in
support of their important mission."
For Spring 2001, the nation
can expect:
- In the South, frequent rains
since November in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Alabama,
Louisiana and Mississippi, have eliminated drought conditions.
If these areas get additional significant rain, flooding is likely
because streams are already running high;
- In the Western Great Lakes
region (Wisconsin, eastern Minnesota, and Upper Michigan) and
in the Northeast, there is a potential for a wet spring. In the
Northeast, snow from this month's Nor'easter has heightened flooding
concerns along the Connecticut and Merrimack river basins in
New England, where at least 10-12 inches of water is stored in
the snow packtwice the normal amount. Above-normal snowmelt
flooding is possible across the region;
- Near normal average temperature
conditions are expected for the three-month period in the Mid-Atlantic
region (60 degrees) and central United States (60s), including
the Ohio, Tennessee (70s) and Mid- and Southern Mississippi Valleys
(75), and most of the Plains states (60 degrees);
- The Midwest (55-60 degrees)
is expected to have a normal spring. However, the weather service
is closely watching the snow melt in many areas including Minnesota
and the Dakotas for potential flooding. The region received above
average snowfall this winter creating a likelihood for spring
flooding if the snow pack melts too quickly;
- In the Southeast, including
Florida, the weather service is forecasting a warm and relatively
dry spring. Severe drought conditions have sparked wildfires
in Florida, however, mid to late-March rains and season rains,
which typically return by June, could provide some relief. Long
term deficits will likely continue to impact water supplies;
- In the Southwest, expect above-normal
temperatures but normal precipitation;
- Though above-normal precipitation
is forecast for parts of the Northwest, it will not be enough
to offset the impact of already low precipitation levels and
the resulting thin snow pack;
- Near normal precipitation
conditions expected over Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico leaving
most of Hawaii and southern Puerto Rico in persistent dryness.
Alaska has been relatively warm with below-normal snowpack. This
spring above normal temperatures are expected for northern Alaska
while the southern extremes should be cool.
Click image for
larger view.
Winter 2000-2001 Roundup
Click
here for high-resolution version. |
"NOAA's recent climate
initiatives and technology improvements have resulted in gains
in the accuracy of long-term seasonal forecasts and short-term
severe weather prediction, " Gudes said. "NOAA's climate
and weather forecast services are vital since $1 trillion of
the U.S. economy is weather sensitive with most of the major
economic sectors including energy, agriculture, transportation,
construction, and water resources affected."
Relevant Web Sites
DROUGHT: THE CREEPING DISASTER
FLOODS: AMONG THE GREATEST NATURAL DISASTERS
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICES:
INFORMATION FOR A STRONGER AND SAFER AMERICA
Spring
2001 Outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center
The outlook will be updated on April 12 at 3 p.m EST.
NOAA's Drought Information
Center
NOAA's
River Forecast Centers
USA
Regional Climate Maps See the latest precipitation
and temperature summaries
NOAA's National Weather Service
NOAA's Hydrometeorological
Prediction Center
NOAA's
Vegetation Index
Year
2000 Droughts
NOAA's Office of Hydrologyprovides
current and historical data and will lead you to NOAA's Hydrologic
Information Center, which has current hydrologic conditions,
including flood and drought conditions.
Palmer
Drought Index Map
Crop
Moisture Index Map
Precipitation
Needed to End Drought
U.S.
Threats Assessment
Calculated
Soil Moisture Maps
Seasonal
Forecasts
Precipitation
Time Series
The National Drought
Mitigation Center provides information to help people and
institutions reduce vulnerability to drought, stressing prevention
and risk management.
Daily and Weekly
Precipitation Maps
Flood Web Links
National
Hydrologic Assessment Flood Potential
Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Services
The following National Weather
Service Web sites are available to provide up-to-the-minute winter
weather information.
Current
winter storm watches, warnings and temperatures across the United
States
National
forecasts that extend from three to 14 days in advance
Map
showing the latest conditions over the United States
NOAA's Weather Page
includes latest satellite images and weather maps
NOAA's National Weather
Service Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services
NOAA Weather Radio
Media Contacts:
Curtis
Carey, NOAA's National
Weather Service, (301) 713-0622 or Carmeyia
Gillis, NOAA's Climate
Prediction Center, (301) 763-8000 ext. 7163
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