Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000
FXUS63 KSGF 211205
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2008
.DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BY
MID MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI HIGHWAY
5 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND ARE ON
THE WAY FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILER NETWORK REVEAL A CUTOFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. A STRATUS DECK IN
SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI ASSOCIATED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG
THE 305K SURFACE CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE OZARKS.
ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE AREAS OF MORNING FOG WITH THE GREATEST
RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES IN VALLEYS AND NEAR LAKES AND
RIVERS. THE EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF WITH DAY TIME HEATING
INCREASING INSTABILITY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH CHANCES DWINDLING
WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON HEATING.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE STATE OF NEVADA AT 07Z WILL KICK
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE OZARKS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY BRINGING DRY AND WARMER WEATHER. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY. THE GFS/ECMWF
BOTH DEPICTING THE UPPER TROUGH TRANSITIONING TO AN OCCLUDED LOW
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. WITH THE STRONGER DYNAMICS WELL
TO THE NORTH AND LIMITED MOISTURE...RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE SLIM
AT BEST AND LIMITED TO THE CENTRAL OZARKS WEDNESDAY.
THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET DEPICT THE MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WITH BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
OVERALL...DRY WEATHER WITH WARM AFTERNOONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND COOL NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S LOOK TO
BE THE RULE FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANGLE
&&
.AVIATION...
IFR CEILINGS WILL AFFECT THE SPRINGFIELD TERMINAL THROUGH MID
MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST EAST OF JOPLIN. MVFR
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE WIDESPREAD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS
LESS THAN 1 MILE. A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS RETURNING THIS AFTERNOON.
FOSTER
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ057-058-
068>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-102>106.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
