Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41 42
43
44
45
46
47
48
000 FXUS63 KSGF 030511 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1111 PM CST SUN NOV 2 2008 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. OVER OUR EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS LESS DENSE...TEMPERATURES WERE APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. THE CURRENT RECORD FOR JOPLIN IN 81...SO WE MAY SEE THIS TIED OR BROKEN. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WILL BE COMPLICATED SLIGHTLY BY THE WARM EVENING START AND INCREASING WINDS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WENT AHEAD AND RAISED OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FROM SPRINGFIELD WESTWARD. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO NEAR 50 OVER OUR EASTERN COUNTIES. MAY SEE SOME VALLEY FOG DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS TONIGHT...BUT SREF CEILING/FOG PROGS ARE PRETTY MUCH NIL OVER THE AREA SO DO NOT PLAN ON ADDING FOG TO WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WILL KEEP MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON DROPS QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THE MOVEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE AND SURFACE RESPONSE WILL AFFECT STORM INTENSITIES OVER OUR AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE FAVORED THE ECMWF WHICH THE GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD. THE RESULTING IMPACT ON THE FORECAST HAS BEEN TO LAG EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF STORM CHANCES ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW ASSUMES A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE AREA AND A COLD FRONT PUNCHES ACROSS THE AREA AS A 90-100 KNOT UPPER JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. STRONG LIFT OVERRUNNING FAIRLY DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT. MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF THE GFS SHOW STRONG SHEAR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A 50-60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP OVER THE AREA. IT ALSO SHOWS A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SETTING UP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE HWO FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. HAVE LAGGED LOW POPS OVER OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES ON FRIDAY AS UPPER LOW IS TRENDING TOWARD CUTTING OFF OVER NORTHEAST MO. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE WILL NEED TO SPREAD PRECIP CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .AVIATION... FOR THE 0600 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR EAST. KEPT A MENTION OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN BOTH TAFS FOR TONIGHT. DSA && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY END UP BEING A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. HOWEVER WE STILL SEE OUR MIN RH GRIDS GENERATING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN HWO. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
