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000
FXUS63 KSGF 051744
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1144 AM CST WED NOV 5 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS WITH THIS PACKAGE WILL BE CENTERED ON STRONG SYNOPTIC
SCALE STORM SYSTEM TAKING AIM AT THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH STRONG 120-130KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
DIGGING SOUTH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY. FURTHER
EAST AHEAD OF THE LOW...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KTS WAS
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S WEST OF THE PLATEAU
SO FAR TONIGHT. DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO CREEP UP...AIDED BY THE
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF 45 TO 60 KTS IN THE PLAINS. THIS WAS ALSO
AIDING IN SOME WARM SECTOR CONVECTION BREAKING OUT TO OUR NORTH AT
THE MOMENT.
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE
FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF IN THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST TODAY WEST OF THE
PLATEAU WITH DEWPOINTS TRYING TO CREEP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BY 00Z.
STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAYS WEATHER WITH
SOME GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE PLATEAU. SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WILL MAKE MENTION IN THE
MORNING HWO. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE NORTHWEST 1/4 OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY AND HAVE BUMPED
UP POPS THERE SLIGHTLY. THE MAIN ACTION IS SLATED FOR TONIGHT
HOWEVER FOR CONVECTION.
STRONG UPPER JET STREAK 110-120KT WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS EVENING WHILE LOW STARTS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY
TILTED. STRONG 850 WINDS WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 40 TO 50KTS AND WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER EASTERN KANSAS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND MAY CREEP INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER
OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE FORMING INTO A SQUALL LINE
OVERNIGHT. WILL BE MENTIONING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. MAIN HAZARD
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL BE WITH STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
AS SQUALL LINE SHIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHEAR
STILL PRETTY STRONG OVERNIGHT WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND WOULDNT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ROTATING STORMS ALONG THE LINE. STORM EVENT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED HOWEVER WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING BY
MIDDAY OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. PRETTY GOOD PUNCH OF COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH
THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THESE SHORTWAVES WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTHWEST. SHOULD BE LOOKING AT
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE LOW 50S IN CENTRAL MO BY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER PERSISTS IN THAT REGION.
LINDENBERG
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z KSGF/KJLN TAFS...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL AVIATION
HAZARDS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO WESTERN
KANSAS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE STORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...HOWEVER A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS
EVENING. HAVE INCLUDED CB IN THE KJLN TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...AS
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A TEMPO OR PREVAIL GROUP AT THIS
TIME. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE.
AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST A SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR
THE FRONT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...FIRST AT
THE KJLN SITE THEN THE KSGF SITE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THIS ACTIVITY AS CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THIS OCCURRING.
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND HAVE KEPT THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE
TAFS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WIND SHEAR.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOZ066-067-077-
078-088-089-093-094-101-102.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
