Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 060828 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 228 AM CST THU NOV 6 2008 .DISCUSSION... MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE WITH STRONG STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA. STRONG 100-120KT UPPER LEVEL JET PUNCHING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THIS AIDED IN STORMS RAMPING BACK UP OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN LINE HAVE HAD DECENT ROTATION REQUIRING TORNADO WARNINGS. 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 450-500 M2/S2 EAST OF THE FRONT SO WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ROTATING STORMS WITHIN THE LINE. MAIN LINE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BUT WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF BEING SEVERE OVER THE EASTERN MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE EXITING THE CWA BY 12Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR 12-18Z FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUNCH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO ENTER BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY SPREADING CLOUD COVER BACK TO ABOUT THE NORTHEAST 2/3 OF THE CWA. NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER AND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S. COULD SEE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WITH MORE POTENTIAL OF SUNSHINE. HAVE THROWN IN SOME LOW POPS IN CENTRAL MO WHERE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE MORE SIGNIFICANT AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AS UPPER SHORTWAVE ROTATES THROUGH. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO PULL OUT BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER STRONG JET STREAK WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF DIGS THE SYSTEM DEEPER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAN THE GFS AND THE 00Z RUN WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE 12Z MODEL RUN. AS A RESULT...THE ECMWF KEEPS THE PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES...HAVE GONE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON POPS AT THE ONSET AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS TO 40S BY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS ALL RAIN...HOWEVER GFS IS SHWOING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AT 850 BY LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW. LINDENBERG && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR IN TAFS THROUGH THE NIGHT BASED ON LATEST WIND PROFILER DATA. LINE OF STORMS PERSISTING NEAR THE MO/KS BORDER FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF EASTWARD MOVEMENT AS SQUALL LINE BEGINS TO DEVELOP...SO WILL CONTINUE VICINITY THUNDER WITH EMBEDDED TEMPO FROM AROUND 06-10Z. MAIN WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE IS EXPECTED BY MID/LATE MORNING WITH DRY SLOT CLEARING OUT CLOUD COVER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
