Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 032107 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 307 PM CST MON NOV 3 2008 .DISCUSSION... THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS INCLUDE THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH IN THE MID RANGE...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS AS WINDS BECAME QUITE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM. THIS STORM HAS BEGUN TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING JET STREAK. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME CUT OFF AS IT BOTTOMS OUT OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS A 100 KT JET STREAK ROUNDS THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE SURFACE LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WITH SUCH A DYNAMIC SYSTEM AND POWERFUL COLD FRONT...THERE WILL BE AMPLE ENERGY TO DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE IN HIGH GEAR OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH LOW LEVEL JETS GREATER THAN 50 KTS PUMPING DIRECTLY FROM THE GULF. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 9 HOURS. IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY...SEVERAL INGREDIENTS LOOK TO BE IN PLACE. IF ANY INGREDIENT IS LACKING...IT WOULD BE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP WITH ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A RAPID TRANSITION TO LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF ROTATION DUE IN PART TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS. THE LINEAR EXTENT OF STORM MODE COULD VARY DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. A MORE LINEAR MODE WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT WHILE DECREASING THE HAIL THREAT A BIT. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TAKE OVER AT THE SURFACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN EARNEST. 850 TEMPS WILL LIKELY APPROACH -2C TO -4C SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WILL PROVIDE QUITE A COOL DOWN FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES. A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AFFECT THE SGF CWA BY NEXT MONDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BARJENBRUCH && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS THROUGH TUESDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT RESUME TUESDAY. SURFACE GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. FOSTER && .FIRE WEATHER... SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OSAGE PLAINS. WHILE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...DRIED GRASSES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND WARM DAYTIME HIGHS...A HEIGHTENED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST. A HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOSTER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
