Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 060130 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 730 PM CST WED NOV 5 2008 ...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION... .UPDATE... THE THREAT FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES IS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 71. THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING INDICATES VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER STEEP. ON THE OTHER HAND...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH 0 TO 1 KM HELICITIES AROUND OR GREATER THAN 400 M2/S2. THINKING IS THAT INSTABILITY REMAINED JUST A TOUCH ON THE LOW SIDE FOR STORMS TO REMAIN DISCRETE. INTERESTINGLY...THE STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA HAVE BEEN ABLE TO REMAIN MORE DISCRETE WITH MLCAPES MORE IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR CHANUTE KANSAS DOWN TOWARDS ADA OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER AREA OF CONVERGENCE CONTINUES IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 71 CORRIDOR...WITH RADAR ECHOES RECENTLY INCREASING IN THIS AREA. LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM MODE FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS PUSH INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. GIVEN SUCH STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR...EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THUS...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO CASSVILLE LINE. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. THE STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED BECOME DOMINANTLY LINEAR LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THEM. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR LATE TONIGHT. SCHAUMANN && .DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FROM THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CORN BELT. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT...MAKING IT TO THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT...AS WELL AS ALONG A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR GREATER DETAIL ON THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. SPEAKING OF WINDS...WE HAVE NOT MET WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA UP TO THIS POINT. WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLING THE WIND ADVISORY BY 4 PM. THURSDAY...THAT FRONT WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST OUT OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI IN THE MORNING. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEARING AS A DRY SLOT WORKS INTO THE AREA. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY THEN BRING MORE CLOUDINESS INTO THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES ARE A TOUGH CALL GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLING LOW LEVELS. GENERALLY SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET. THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN RATHER TIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EFFICIENTLY MIX OUT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL COME AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW AND DRIVE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE COULD SEE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVER AT OR BELOW ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS. UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER A CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY LIMITED SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS. EARLY NEXT WEEK...LONG WAVE CHARTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR DIGGING OF ENERGY OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE ENERGY DIVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND EVENTUALLY EJECTING OUT TOWARDS THE OZARKS. STILL NOT A REAL GOOD SIGNAL FOR TIMING...BUT FEEL THAT SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. DO NOT SEE ANY BIG WARM UPS AS LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. SCHAUMANN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY WIND SHEAR AFTER 02Z AS 925 MB WINDS ARE ALREADY REACHING 40 KNOTS ON THE NEODESHA KANSAS PROFILER. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALREADY ONGOING OVER EASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEAST OK SHOULD CONTINUE THEIR NORTHEAST TRACK...AFFECTING THE JOPLIN AIRPORT BY 02-03Z AND THE SPRINGFIELD AIRPORT AROUND 06Z. EXPECT IFR VISIBILITY AND MVFR CEILINGS WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS AND WILL CARRY TEMPO GROUPS FOR A FEW HOURS WITHIN THE 6-8 HOUR VICINITY TIME FRAME. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST. HAVE INCLUDED GUSTS OVER 20 MPH. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
