Issued by NWS Springfield, MO
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000 FXUS63 KSGF 070532 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1132 PM CST THU NOV 6 2008 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE LOW NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE MAIN JET STREAK SUPPORTING THE FRONT WILL PUSH WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. A SECOND WEAKER JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO PUSH DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. AS A RESULT...INDICATED SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS WEEKEND...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND CLEARING SKIES. MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND DEEPEN SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOR THIS PERIOD. GFS BRINGS THE SYSTEM IN 12 TO 24 HOURS QUICKER AND INCORPORATES AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FROM THE NORTH ORBITING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ECMWF ONLY DEPICTS THE DEEPER TROUGH FROM THE WEST. INDICATED PRECIPITATION STARTING MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...A BLEND OF BOTH SOLUTIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GFS SHOWS A SIGNAL FOR A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF DOES NOT WITH AN OVERALL SLOWER SOLUTION. LEFT THIS PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. KARDELL/GAGAN && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BE PULLED INTO THE LARGE UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...AND HAS EFFECTIVELY ERODED THE CLOUD DECK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER OUR AREA. SO WILL GO UNLIMITED CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPSTREAM SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME OF THE MOISTURE WILL WORK ITS WAY EASTWARD BACK OVER THE OZARKS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...SO WILL BRING AT LEAST A SCATTERED DECK INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TERRY && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
